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Central PA & The Fringes - January 2014 Pt II


PennMan

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The thing is I feel is that when people see how much snow on average say in State College is 45 inches they automatically think there has to be at least a few 10 inch storms there. The reality is our part of the state nickels and dimes our way to our nice averages. Heck even my last double digit snowfall at home was back in 2010. The nice trade off is that our chances of snow can start in October and last until April. Of course when AL Gore is right we will end up on the coast since rising sea levels.....

We also get our share of moderate snow events, especially those of us just to the west of State College. But that doesn't fit the narrative of misery so some forget. 

 

We have to accept our climo and enjoy what we get. Alternatives:

 

- Have a hobby that makes you miserable, which unless one is into masochism makes no sense

- Take up another hobby

- Move

- Suicide, but people who kill themselves over snow end up in the Dumbass Wing of Hell and are made fun of for eternity.  

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Ugh. More pics of frozen spring water truck pipes. Wish they had a way to prevent that, as I am sure you also. 

 

Nope. No more pics. It all looks the same after awhile. The only way I know how to not freeze up the pipes is to not haul the water in the first place... :D

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We also get our share of moderate snow events, especially those of us just to the west of State College. But that doesn't fit the narrative of misery so some forget.

We have to accept our climo and enjoy what we get. Alternatives:

- Have a hobby that makes you miserable, which unless one is into masochism makes no sense

- Take up another hobby

- Move

- Suicide, but people who kill themselves over snow end up in the Dumbass Wing of Hell and are made fun of for eternity.

True, I don't think anyone gets as bad as you exaggerate though lol. It's natural for a weather freak to want a large synoptic storm moreso than clippers and lake effect squalls. I can't move because of my job, but if I had a pick it would be the hills of Connecticutt.

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True, I don't think anyone gets as bad as you exaggerate though lol. It's natural for a weather freak to want a large synoptic storm moreso than clippers and lake effect squalls. I can't move because of my job, but if I had a pick it would be the hills of Connecticutt.

If you want to move somewhere simply to give yourself the highest chance of a 10" or 20" snowstorm the higher elevations in east central Mass are probably the best location on the east coast. 

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Like Zak said back a few posts I am coming off of some of the best accumulating snow from the storm.  It looks like I'm getting really close now to it shutting down based on latest radar.  I will go out and get my final measurement when it ends.  I'm guessing I had to have picked up another 0.5" since my last post back around 4.

 

Temp hovering close to 15 degrees now with winds between 5 and 10 mph.  Not too much blowing snow going on at the moment.  I'm sure that will return/develop a bit later this evening.

 

 

>>Edit:  winds appear to be sustained around 10 mph with a recent gust to 15.

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The thing is I feel is that when people see how much snow on average say in State College is 45 inches they automatically think there has to be at least a few 10 inch storms there. The reality is our part of the state nickels and dimes our way to our nice averages. Heck even my last double digit snowfall at home was back in 2010. The nice trade off is that our chances of snow can start in October and last until April. Of course when AL Gore is right we will end up on the coast since rising sea levels.....

 

I lived in Cleveland, OH for five years and felt the same way. I used to joke that we would get our 60-inch average three inches at a time. Lots of lake effect events, but most of the heavy stuff fell to the east of my house. I think we had one storm over 6 inches (Xmas 2002) in my five Cleveland winters.

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I actually measured 5.75" in my first measurement but went with my lowest total. I don't want to be called a weenie. :)

Yea, I don't want to give a weenie measurement either. I saw your total and thought I was high but it was the same in different flat areas.

I don't get a north wind here so mabey that was the difference.

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If you want to move somewhere simply to give yourself the highest chance of a 10" or 20" snowstorm the higher elevations in east central Mass are probably the best location on the east coast. 

 

Worcester, MA = always has lots of snow. Have family and friends living there.

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I lived in Cleveland, OH for five years and felt the same way. I used to joke that we would get our 60-inch average three inches at a time. Lots of lake effect events, but most of the heavy stuff fell to the east of my house. I think we had one storm over 6 inches (Xmas 2002) in my five Cleveland winters.

 

Yep. Lake effect/ upslope snows usually hit the ridges to my SW. We usually always get the lower end of totals due to living in a valley..

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psuhoffman

I have been enjoying reading your posts! Some interesting reads.

Jamie

What area's in our state have the highest snow totals?

I agree on yearly snow totals...our snow total we usually get a couple inches at a time. It all adds up.

Voyager

Man I feel bad for you!!! You need to move :-)

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Just once I'd like to be able to make a post like this....

Something to use going forward that has helped me a lot... back when I was a met student at psu hazleton, Jon Neese and his assistant (cant remember his name) use to hold model run discussions when there was a storm to track at the little weather center in the library basement.  I remember his assistant once talking about a trick for figuring out where the back edge of the good snowfall would be in a decent storm.  Since the models, especially the globals, tend to broad brush things a bit and lose how sharp the edge will be, and the high res models are too unreliable about where to precisely place meso scale features, he liked to use the .5 qpf line on the AVN now the GFS when we were within 24 hours.  He said that is about where the back edge of the good lift and qpf would usually meet the better ratios and would end up being the back edge of the significant snows.  I have since used this numerous times, and it had served me very well.  Today I fell into a trap when the one run of the 6z GFS shifted the .5 well north into our area, but every run before and the 12z after it were consistent having that .5 line down in the lower sus valley and thats where the heavier snow set up.  It works most of the time assuming the GFS has a handle on the storm.  Of course it only works in systems that have heavier qpf.  It worked well with all 3 of the storms that screwed us this year.  If we are outside that .5 qpf line, probably not going to get into the heavier bands. 

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Dover and Red Lion have high totals again... same culprits?... seems too high to me like they are measuring drifts

"Dover" is a big area so its not impossible... red lion is also geographically a huge school district spanning from just south of 30 all the way down to within a few miles of MD.

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psuhoffman

I have been enjoying reading your posts! Some interesting reads.

Jamie

What area's in our state have the highest snow totals?

I agree on yearly snow totals...our snow total we usually get a couple inches at a time. It all adds up.

Voyager

Man I feel bad for you!!! You need to move :-)

 

2 areas get the highest amounts: Number 1 is right along Lake Erie over to Bradford. Area number 2 is the higher ridge tops o Somerset County.

 

Here is the map.  Enjoy!

 

newAnnualSnow.jpg

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Something to use going forward that has helped me a lot... back when I was a met student at psu hazleton, Jon Neese and his assistant (cant remember his name) use to hold model run discussions when there was a storm to track at the little weather center in the library basement.  I remember his assistant once talking about a trick for figuring out where the back edge of the good snowfall would be in a decent storm.  Since the models, especially the globals, tend to broad brush things a bit and lose how sharp the edge will be, and the high res models are too unreliable about where to precisely place meso scale features, he liked to use the .5 qpf line on the AVN now the GFS when we were within 24 hours.  He said that is about where the back edge of the good lift and qpf would usually meet the better ratios and would end up being the back edge of the significant snows.  I have since used this numerous times, and it had served me very well.  Today I fell into a trap when the one run of the 6z GFS shifted the .5 well north into our area, but every run before and the 12z after it were consistent having that .5 line down in the lower sus valley and thats where the heavier snow set up.  It works most of the time assuming the GFS has a handle on the storm.  Of course it only works in systems that have heavier qpf.  It worked well with all 3 of the storms that screwed us this year.  If we are outside that .5 qpf line, probably not going to get into the heavier bands. 

 

Great post. It's true. I got suckered in when I saw the GFS (and NAM) this morning with the .5 line well north of us and Barker's and Twister Data's graphics showing 6"+ for east of I-81. I will certainly remember this bit of advice and use it in upcoming storms.

 

Thank You!

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