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Central PA & The Fringes - January 2014 Pt II


PennMan

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Under 5dbz, moderate snow... now under 30dbz... flurries. I just don't get it. 

Few things can cause that.  Dry air can affect actual intensity.  This happened in 2009 to me in MD where I was under a good band on radar for hours with just flurries actually hitting the ground.  Wind can sometimes effect where the snow hits the ground vs radar.  There can be a lag effect sometimes between the radar and reality.  Any of those or all could cause the disconnect. 

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Few things can cause that.  Dry air can affect actual intensity.  This happened in 2009 to me in MD where I was under a good band on radar for hours with just flurries actually hitting the ground.  Wind can sometimes effect where the snow hits the ground vs radar.  There can be a lag effect sometimes between the radar and reality.  Any of those or all could cause the disconnect. 

 

Doesn't help I am in worst radar location as well. lol. 

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Flurries here...

 

 

Oh, this isn't the first year this has happened here. I'm in Tamaqua 12 years now, and it's happened more times than I care to imagine. I think the ONLY way to get a big snow event here is to have a Miller A ride the immediate coast so as to flip Philly, NYC, and the rest of the I-95 crowd over to mixed precip or rain outright.

That is the normal way to do it...90 percent of the BIG snows this area probably did have mixing issues in Philly.  The other way is a more west to east type storm but with a more north track then this...say like the PDII storm or a really historically intense storm like Jan 1961 or Feb 1967.  Those got Philly, NY and our area with 10" plus.  Its rare though.  We need inside runners like the xmas 2002 storm or the March 2007 storm. 

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Judging by latest radar I would say no more than about an hour tops left here for any further accumulations.  Went out and just measured between 3.0 and 3.4".  I doubt I am going to break my highest storm this season which was 4.2" back on Jan 2-3.

 

Temp continuing to fall now down to 15.8 degrees.  I'm a little disappointed because I came up underperforming the models again, but such is life.  I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.  And, I think tomorrow morning might be more nasty than 2 weeks ago was since there is quite a bit more snow on the ground this time.

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Doesn't help I am in worse radar location as well. lol. 

 

That was what I was going to mention, CCX beam height is over 6,600 feet and the beam height from Sterling is about 4,500ft. Might be nice flakes at those heights but the wind aloft might be a factor in busting up the flakes and creating worse ratios. 

 

Poor Voyager's neck of the woods has to be about the worst area in the state for monitoring the radar. 

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It's nice that we have the pattern but it needs to produce. And Voyager above me is exactly correct with the way the pattern goes anymore. We'd need a 93-style track to have a chance at a 10"+ snow.

I love big snows... so it gives me no pleasure to say this, but 10" plus is just not our climo here.  The odds of me seeing a 10" snow went way down when I moved here from the hills of northern MD.  We are too far east to get big amounts from cutters, but too far west usually for coastals.  We get fringed a LOT and once in a while luck out with a storm that is either really intense or takes a slightly inside the coast track.  Our best chance of getting good snow here is probably several solid events back to back, say a 2 week period with a few 3-6" storms with maybe a 6-10" one thrown in.  I love big snows so after my year here I am trying to move to the Poconos where big events are more normal or back to northern MD where they may get less snow but more big ticket events.  I saw six 10"+ storms in just 4 years living in Manchester MD and 3 were over 20". 

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I'm a little disappointed because I came up underperforming the models again, but such is life.  I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.  And, I think tomorrow morning might be more nasty than 2 weeks ago was since there is quite a bit more snow on the ground this time.

 

I won't lose any sleep over it, either, but I'm a bit disappointed as well. Models kept trending north and this morning showed a good 6" swath pretty much along and east of I-81 almost up to I-80. Even State College upped our totals to 4-6, which wouldn't have been bad. I got 1.2" and it looks to be over here as dry air from the north really won out.

 

As for tomorrow being worse than 2 weeks ago. I tend to agree. We had most of our snow washed away by the rainstorm that preceded that arctic air mass.

 

Poor Voyager's neck of the woods has to be about the worst area in the state for monitoring the radar.

 

It is. I don't get good results from either State College, Binghamton, or Philly.

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I won't lose any sleep over it, either, but I'm a bit disappointed as well. Models kept trending north and this morning showed a good 6" swath pretty much along and east of I-81 almost up to I-80. Even State College upped our totals to 4-6, which wouldn't have been bad. I got 1.2" and it looks to be over here as dry air from the north really won out.

 

As for tomorrow being worse than 2 weeks ago. I tend to agree. We had most of our snow washed away by the rainstorm that preceded that arctic air mass.

Probably not here. Hard to top -13. 

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From the Stop Whining, It Could Be Worse Department:

 

 

4:15 p.m. update: Reagan National Airport, as of 4 p.m, had picked up 2.1 inches, officially ending the longest 2 inch snowstorm drought on record – dating back almost three years to January 26, 2011.

anyone who loves snow and moves to DC must just hate themselves.  Seriously, that place is in an awful location, I lived in northern VA for 8 years and the difference from the IAD area to DCA is amazing.  Even in perfect setups somehow DCA would get screwed.  Anyone who loves snow in that area should at least move out to the western or northwester suburbs where averages go way up very quickly. 

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The thing is I feel is that when people see how much snow on average say in State College is 45 inches they automatically think there has to be at least a few 10 inch storms there. The reality is our part of the state nickels and dimes our way to our nice averages. Heck even my last double digit snowfall at home was back in 2010. The nice trade off is that our chances of snow can start in October and last until April. Of course when AL Gore is right we will end up on the coast since rising sea levels.....

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