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Central PA & The Fringes - January 2014 Pt II


PennMan

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The 2/6/10 storm is one I'd rather forget. Confluence killed us around NYC and literally 30 miles separated a foot from an inch. :lol:

 

One thing I liked in central PA was how often snow would fall on top of fallen snow. That's very rare for us near the coast-we might get big snow events but warm air easily can erase it fast. 2010-11 was the one winter I remember where we would have snow on top of snow.

 

When that mega miller A finally comes around one day I'll be the first one rooting for you guys. :P

The greatest storm in PSU history was the Feb 9-10 snow when people were bitching on the Penn State Facebook page about PSU not closing and some administrator got on the PSU FB page and yelled at students and said something like "you had no problem getting around for your snowball fights after the big snow Friday" and that there was hardly any snow. Plus, they said commuters and staff shouldn't have any issue coming into work. UNV only got like 3 but I got 9 and Altoona got a foot due to this insane band that set up, so staff and faculty who live out our way flipped out because they didn't know it wasn't snowing much at UNV and the PSU person didn't realize it was really bad out our way. The FB page exploded.

 

It has been mentioned in two presentations at conferences I've been at on how not to handle social media :lmao:

 

Tellin' ya, it was classic.

Odds of PSU hbg closing tomorrow evening? I'm going with 15%.

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The greatest storm in PSU history was the Feb 9-10 snow when people were bitching on the Penn State Facebook page about PSU not closing and some administrator got on the PSU FB page and yelled at students and said something like "you had no problem getting around for your snowball fights after the big snow Friday" and that there was hardly any snow. Plus, they said commuters and staff shouldn't have any issue coming into work. UNV only got like 3 but I got 9 and Altoona got a foot due to this insane band that set up, so staff and faculty who live out our way flipped out because they didn't know it wasn't snowing much at UNV and the PSU person didn't realize it was really bad out our way. The FB page exploded.

 

It has been mentioned in two presentations at conferences I've been at on how not to handle social media :lmao:

 

Tellin' ya, it was classic.

 

I remember that. The Blizzard warning that was crushed by people. Then when the 02-25/ 26 storm hit those blizzard warnings would have been nice. 

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Southern tier brethren, short term guidance bring heaviest band up our way now.

 

 

Yea def similar ideas on our maps, I've tended to think the very best snowfall would reside north of DC and along the I-70 corridor in MD, eventually creeping into the far southern tier and towards Philly. I still think the DC gang will see a good event out of this regardless. Will be interesting to see if in fact this area ends up shifting to along the turnpike. Did mention earlier this evening it was probably going to take the near term guidance to determine where this was going to set up.

 

Latest RAP precip totals thru 18hr (liquid equiv... with snow still occurring in the LSV and SE PA )

 

post-1507-0-52081700-1390286724_thumb.pn

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Yea def similar ideas on our maps, I've tended to think the very best snowfall would reside north of DC and along the I-70 corridor in MD, eventually creeping into the far southern tier and towards Philly. I still think the DC gang will see a good event out of this regardless. Will be interesting to see if in fact this area ends up shifting to along the turnpike. Did mention earlier this evening it was probably going to take the near term guidance to determine where this was going to set up.

 

Latest RAP precip totals thru 18hr (liquid equiv... with snow still occurring in the LSV and SE PA )

 

attachicon.giftotp_t3sfc_f18.png

 

Noticed the RAP increases precip intensity as it gets closer. Like for example hr 15 would shown .01-.10" on NCEP but when that hr 15 got to like 8 after a few more runs a .10" area comes in. 

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Both that and the latest HRRR (looks fairly similar to the RAP) that came out are really starting to focus on hammering the turnpike corridor. Precip already breaking out on the Mason-Dixon and should serve to help point out where the axis of heaviest sets up today. Snowing in Cumberland and Western MD already as per cams. 

 

Cumberland, MD cam

 

Marylands cams are pretty good quality (streaming 192 kbps) and lots of coverage. Should have some decent shots later today. 

 

http://www.chart.state.md.us/travinfo/trafficcams.php

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Headin to bed for a bit, here's the map I posted around 1:15 AM for the early morning crew. I had given this some space on the northern extent of heavier snowfall and it appears given the trend of the overnight models and latest near term guidance that it might work out quite well..perhaps even too well. But I will stay the course with what I have out. Headline placement looks to at least stay as is, but I'll bet CTP adds Cumberland, Dauphin, and Lebanon Counties to the warning. Outside chance they could add a few counties the next tier up for advisories. Newest RAP has 0.1-0.25 of QPF up into most of Clearfield and Centre counties which with the high ratios may argue for a bit of an expansion northward of CTP's 2-4 area. 

 

post-1507-0-96287500-1390297295_thumb.pn

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I wonder if there will be talk of Blizzard Warnings.  We will be flirting with that criteria later this afternoon. 

CTP DISCOModel cross-section analysis is indicating a good instability signature and potential of slantwise convection banding across our southeast counties between 18z-00z with a layer of negative epv located in the layer just above the middle level frontogenesis. The limiting factor will be a lack of deep moisture/positive precipitable water anomalies. Still...oper and ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast both show good support for between 0.5 and 0.7 inches across parts of York/Lancaster counties. As mentioned above...the thermal profiles are supportive of high snow/water ratios with bulk of lift occurring withing dendritic growth zone. Snl/S of somewhere between 15 and 20 to 1 could support as much as 10 to 12 inches where heavy snow band forms /most likely over S York and S Lancaster counties/. 
Tightening pressure gradient west of developing coastal low will also create some gusty winds across southeast PA late today. BUFKIT soundings support gusts across the lower susq valley to around 25kts by evening
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