Itunis Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Any interest in a forecast contest for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 LOL NAM sucks mooseage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Any interest in a forecast contest for this one? Lets do it. You want to start it or me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The 2/6/10 storm is one I'd rather forget. Confluence killed us around NYC and literally 30 miles separated a foot from an inch. One thing I liked in central PA was how often snow would fall on top of fallen snow. That's very rare for us near the coast-we might get big snow events but warm air easily can erase it fast. 2010-11 was the one winter I remember where we would have snow on top of snow. When that mega miller A finally comes around one day I'll be the first one rooting for you guys. The greatest storm in PSU history was the Feb 9-10 snow when people were bitching on the Penn State Facebook page about PSU not closing and some administrator got on the PSU FB page and yelled at students and said something like "you had no problem getting around for your snowball fights after the big snow Friday" and that there was hardly any snow. Plus, they said commuters and staff shouldn't have any issue coming into work. UNV only got like 3 but I got 9 and Altoona got a foot due to this insane band that set up, so staff and faculty who live out our way flipped out because they didn't know it wasn't snowing much at UNV and the PSU person didn't realize it was really bad out our way. The FB page exploded. It has been mentioned in two presentations at conferences I've been at on how not to handle social media Tellin' ya, it was classic. Odds of PSU hbg closing tomorrow evening? I'm going with 15%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 All things considered, I didn't mind Winter 2009-10, at least the second half thereof. We got ours in the 2/10 (had about 10" here) and 2/26 storms (a good bit over 1'). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWeatherAdventure Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Any interest in a forecast contest for this one? Yes, I'd liked when we tried this last time. Any chance of opening up a thread again Eastern? Perhaps we can throw in other locales where more snow is expected, (DC, PHL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The greatest storm in PSU history was the Feb 9-10 snow when people were bitching on the Penn State Facebook page about PSU not closing and some administrator got on the PSU FB page and yelled at students and said something like "you had no problem getting around for your snowball fights after the big snow Friday" and that there was hardly any snow. Plus, they said commuters and staff shouldn't have any issue coming into work. UNV only got like 3 but I got 9 and Altoona got a foot due to this insane band that set up, so staff and faculty who live out our way flipped out because they didn't know it wasn't snowing much at UNV and the PSU person didn't realize it was really bad out our way. The FB page exploded. It has been mentioned in two presentations at conferences I've been at on how not to handle social media Tellin' ya, it was classic. I remember that. The Blizzard warning that was crushed by people. Then when the 02-25/ 26 storm hit those blizzard warnings would have been nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Lets do it. You want to start it or me? You did a good job with it last time IMO, I say go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Contest... go! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42502-fluff-factor-12114-storm-contest-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 If the long range gfs is right, we are all going to be very happy!!! It looks like non stop Winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 My snowfall map as promised: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 My snowfall map as promised: Slide1.png Nice. We like the same idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Southern tier brethren, short term guidance bring heaviest band up our way now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Southern tier brethren, short term guidance bring heaviest band up our way now. Yea def similar ideas on our maps, I've tended to think the very best snowfall would reside north of DC and along the I-70 corridor in MD, eventually creeping into the far southern tier and towards Philly. I still think the DC gang will see a good event out of this regardless. Will be interesting to see if in fact this area ends up shifting to along the turnpike. Did mention earlier this evening it was probably going to take the near term guidance to determine where this was going to set up. Latest RAP precip totals thru 18hr (liquid equiv... with snow still occurring in the LSV and SE PA ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yea def similar ideas on our maps, I've tended to think the very best snowfall would reside north of DC and along the I-70 corridor in MD, eventually creeping into the far southern tier and towards Philly. I still think the DC gang will see a good event out of this regardless. Will be interesting to see if in fact this area ends up shifting to along the turnpike. Did mention earlier this evening it was probably going to take the near term guidance to determine where this was going to set up. Latest RAP precip totals thru 18hr (liquid equiv... with snow still occurring in the LSV and SE PA ) totp_t3sfc_f18.png Noticed the RAP increases precip intensity as it gets closer. Like for example hr 15 would shown .01-.10" on NCEP but when that hr 15 got to like 8 after a few more runs a .10" area comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ello 10-14" now in SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ello 10-14" now in SE That isolated 10+ I put in my map looks good right about now. I think the southern Laurels will do better than 4-8 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NAM is NW. Crushes southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Both that and the latest HRRR (looks fairly similar to the RAP) that came out are really starting to focus on hammering the turnpike corridor. Precip already breaking out on the Mason-Dixon and should serve to help point out where the axis of heaviest sets up today. Snowing in Cumberland and Western MD already as per cams. Cumberland, MD cam Marylands cams are pretty good quality (streaming 192 kbps) and lots of coverage. Should have some decent shots later today. http://www.chart.state.md.us/travinfo/trafficcams.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Does anyone know what model Joe Snedeker and WNEP are using? Unless they see something no one else does, with all the models showing much more than that for his southern counties, that seems to be a bit irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Headin to bed for a bit, here's the map I posted around 1:15 AM for the early morning crew. I had given this some space on the northern extent of heavier snowfall and it appears given the trend of the overnight models and latest near term guidance that it might work out quite well..perhaps even too well. But I will stay the course with what I have out. Headline placement looks to at least stay as is, but I'll bet CTP adds Cumberland, Dauphin, and Lebanon Counties to the warning. Outside chance they could add a few counties the next tier up for advisories. Newest RAP has 0.1-0.25 of QPF up into most of Clearfield and Centre counties which with the high ratios may argue for a bit of an expansion northward of CTP's 2-4 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Good morning everyone. Its time to shift into now casting mode. Don't worry about the NAM...GFS...EURO...etc. Surface obs, traffic cams, radar and satellite imagery are your friends now. Also radar hallucinations abound. Relax, everything is on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ello 10-14" now in SE NICE TO WAKE UP TO A CALL of 10-14 IMBY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I wonder if there will be talk of Blizzard Warnings. We will be flirting with that criteria later this afternoon. CTP DISCOModel cross-section analysis is indicating a good instability signature and potential of slantwise convection banding across our southeast counties between 18z-00z with a layer of negative epv located in the layer just above the middle level frontogenesis. The limiting factor will be a lack of deep moisture/positive precipitable water anomalies. Still...oper and ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast both show good support for between 0.5 and 0.7 inches across parts of York/Lancaster counties. As mentioned above...the thermal profiles are supportive of high snow/water ratios with bulk of lift occurring withing dendritic growth zone. Snl/S of somewhere between 15 and 20 to 1 could support as much as 10 to 12 inches where heavy snow band forms /most likely over S York and S Lancaster counties/. Tightening pressure gradient west of developing coastal low will also create some gusty winds across southeast PA late today. BUFKIT soundings support gusts across the lower susq valley to around 25kts by evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Get your popcorn ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 25 kts...near whiteout conditions later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Any snow obs out your way? Radar looks busy, not sure if it's reaching the ground further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Nothing here in Lancaster, yet. Radar is exploding though. I believe snow is starting to reach ground in parts of York and Cumberland counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 And temps are really dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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