PennMan Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 The .25" line keeps inching north. indeed, but I'm still holding out hope based on the slow frontal progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What a graphic. I haven't laughed this hard at a graphic since CTP issued Alberta + Alberto cliparts on facebook. lol. What's funny about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What's funny about it?Yeah, it looks like a good call to me. I think MDT sees a little less, but it's all close/relative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 My predictions: UNV 1-2" FIG coating-1" AOO 2-4" JST 3-5" IPT coating MDT 3-5" LNS 5-7" THV 5-7" HGR 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 S&S has a swath of 6-9 in York to Lancaster up to Harrisburg with less south and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 What's funny about it? The ap pearance, not the forecast. I agree with the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 SREF mean for LNS is 0.54" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 SREF plumes have a mean of 11" and a max of 27" here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This has been steadily increasing over the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 15z SREF plumes look good--5" mean for PSB (which is obviously skewed a bit by a few members showing ridiculously high amounts). 2, maybe 3" certainly looks more realistic now and CTPs latest map pushes higher amounts northward in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I decided to start keeping a personal record of snow totals for my hometown this year. So far my total is 34.5." Our seasonal average is probably around 65" or so. Since everyone else does and I figured it would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nam isn't real great, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 i'm awaiting your thoughts! I havnt really followed close all weekend (been fighting onset of sinus infection... lovely i know...) and after 12z runs yesterday I wasnt expecting to see anything more than maybe a dusting to an inch so was quite surprised to wake up this morning to a winter storm watch... looking back from 12z today to even 12z yesterday the trends in all models have been quite favorable for another good snowfall for nearly all of us here... I do remember similar set ups in the past that looked promising but then the dry air killed how far north the precip shield managed to progress or system moved through too quickly with only near 10:1 rates... but the way this winter has gone with many overachieving storms already and the way the trends are going over the last 24 hours I am excited to see how much this one will bring. Similar to the one storm earlier in the year I think there will be a band of heavy snow developing as the system strengthens off the coast... just a matter of will the york area win with totals again or will it be further south or even further north?... Tomorrow is also the climatological peak of winter so will be nice to track snow... I do think 4-6" is a pretty safe forecast right now for the Harrisburg region with 5-7" for York/Lancaster... all of the precip will not fall at 20:1 ratios but at least half of it should with the way the temperature profiles look also when wmsptwx posted the summary of what all will happen he forgot to add that someone will ask where Zak is after two hours without an update during the peak of the event only to have Zak post a video an hour later of him finding the band with 2"/hr rates right by his house :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hahaha true djr great write up as always btw. Any thoughts on nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I havnt really followed close all weekend (been fighting onset of sinus infection... lovely i know...) and after 12z runs yesterday I wasnt expecting to see anything more than maybe a dusting to an inch so was quite surprised to wake up this morning to a winter storm watch... looking back from 12z today to even 12z yesterday the trends in all models have been quite favorable for another good snowfall for nearly all of us here... I do remember similar set ups in the past that looked promising but then the dry air killed how far north the precip shield managed to progress or system moved through too quickly with only near 10:1 rates... but the way this winter has gone with many overachieving storms already and the way the trends are going over the last 24 hours I am excited to see how much this one will bring. Similar to the one storm earlier in the year I think there will be a band of heavy snow developing as the system strengthens off the coast... just a matter of will the york area win with totals again or will it be further south or even further north?... Tomorrow is also the climatological peak of winter so will be nice to track snow... I do think 4-6" is a pretty safe forecast right now for the Harrisburg region with 5-7" for York/Lancaster... all of the precip will not fall at 20:1 ratios but at least half of it should with the way the temperature profiles look also when wmsptwx posted the summary of what all will happen he forgot to add that someone will ask where Zak is after two hours without an update during the peak of the event only to have Zak post a video an hour later of him finding the band with 2"/hr rates right by his house :-) good stuff thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The cautious forecaster in me says not to trust the 18z NAM, but the trends over the past 24 hours are pretty exciting for snow lovers south of I-81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nam isn't real great, The NAM is never real great. Worst model there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Man 10/20 miles may make a huge difference with this one. 18z NAM has a heck if a drop off NW. Getting nervous here in Shippensburg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hahaha true djr great write up as always btw. Any thoughts on nam? I never put much weight on the 6z or 18z NAM because it doesnt have nearly as much new input data as 0z and 12z do... 18z runs of the NAM are often less convective than the 12z run so that is why precip totals often drop a little... I wouldnt worry based on what it has verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I havnt really followed close all weekend (been fighting onset of sinus infection... lovely i know...) and after 12z runs yesterday I wasnt expecting to see anything more than maybe a dusting to an inch so was quite surprised to wake up this morning to a winter storm watch... looking back from 12z today to even 12z yesterday the trends in all models have been quite favorable for another good snowfall for nearly all of us here... I do remember similar set ups in the past that looked promising but then the dry air killed how far north the precip shield managed to progress or system moved through too quickly with only near 10:1 rates... but the way this winter has gone with many overachieving storms already and the way the trends are going over the last 24 hours I am excited to see how much this one will bring. Similar to the one storm earlier in the year I think there will be a band of heavy snow developing as the system strengthens off the coast... just a matter of will the york area win with totals again or will it be further south or even further north?... Tomorrow is also the climatological peak of winter so will be nice to track snow... I do think 4-6" is a pretty safe forecast right now for the Harrisburg region with 5-7" for York/Lancaster... all of the precip will not fall at 20:1 ratios but at least half of it should with the way the temperature profiles look also when wmsptwx posted the summary of what all will happen he forgot to add that someone will ask where Zak is after two hours without an update during the peak of the event only to have Zak post a video an hour later of him finding the band with 2"/hr rates right by his house :-) LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 CTP forcast for here. Tuesday Snow showers. High near 20. North wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Guess they will catch this but went from snow heavy at times to snow showers. that's a lot of snow for snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 TWC is laughable. They have 3-5" for DC and someone said they are sending Cantore there. They respond with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 South of a highway that goes north/south? Soooo it's gonna snow in the Georgian Appalachians? ** I understand what he means. It's tiny joke. Tiiiiiiny joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 ALEET ALEET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 ALEET ALEET DT is mental. That is 9Z and he thinks it is 15Z lol. 48hr forecast from 9Z would be 9Z Wed and that's what it says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just seems like there is something fundamentally wrong about Rehoboth Beach, DE being in a better spot for snow than the slopes of North Central PA. PA/MD border has been a real hot spot for storms so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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