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Central PA & The Fringes - January 2014 Pt II


PennMan

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Boy, those guys who this weekend over on the Philly subforum jumped all over the GFS blowtorch for next week have grown long ears and have started braying. Lesson learned: view GFS long range warmups with suspicion if they have no support. This week was supposed to be a torch via the GFS two weeks ago.

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I agree to some extent and this one was very tough.  By tonight though if the panic button isn't pushed to get the word out about Tuesday then some heads should fly.  I still have friends who think Baltimore will get 1-2 inches because of last nights news.  At least watches are up so that should get attention. 

 

I'm in for the evening newscasts today...believe me, the word will be out. I've seen enough to think at least 4" will fall in the southern tier counties. We have been mentioning snow tomorrow with wording like "chance snow" or "snow showers" since Thursday last week. Even over the weekend, myself and Dr. John Scala both mentioned that Tuesday's chance needed watching. Not sure what the bashing is about...

 

Because of the public's perception of weather, we typically stay a little conservative until 24 hours out, to protect our low-end with winter storms. Once there's better guidance agreement we will up totals, if we need to. You can't even imagine the public outcry when we are off by 1 or 2 inches in their backyards, let alone more than that. THIS is the mentality of people these days...they expect perfection with regards to a science that is not perfectly understood. THIS is why we protect our low-end. Many (not all) of the "Facebook forecasters" will throw out high totals from the start to garner page views and shares, with little or no accountability if the storm doesn't pan out. Also, many times what these Facebook pages say will be construed as what the the TV stations say or NWS, because that's how the he said/she said things work. 

Agreed. LOL - Science is not perfect (I am a mechanical engineer). You have to manage expectations.

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Boy, those guys who this weekend over on the Philly subforum jumped all over the GFS blowtorch for next week have grown long ears and have started braying. Lesson learned: view GFS long range warmups with suspicion if they have no support. This week was supposed to be a torch via the GFS two weeks ago.

I just looked over the 12z GFS and only one frame (hr 324) has our 850 temps above 0C, and most of the next 16 days it is below -10C.  Pretty impressive.

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I just looked over the 12z GFS and only one frame (hr 324) has our 850 temps above 0C, and most of the next 16 days it is below -10C. Pretty impressive.

Long range looking great today compared to over the weekend. Cold and a train of storms. All you can really say at this point is we will have our chances

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Most all model plumes are at least .35+ for KMDT. Given ratios, I would place the boundary for 3/4 inch amounts about 30 miles or so north of the turnpike. Also given the slow progression of the arctic front, it is very easy to see this low budge a tad to the north. I am back up at school, but for those in Harrisburg I would not worry about the northern gradient as much as some other instances. It is darn close, but should be to the north.

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