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Central PA & The Fringes - January 2014 Pt II


PennMan

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It's true maytown it's.a razors edge event. Have a feeling mapgirl and lancaster guys are in good shape.

yeah, i was all warm and fuzzy earlier, but as i think back, like maytown said flip a coin, we've been here before! York, Adams and Lancaster look good, Maybe even Southern Cumberland for a 4-6".

 

Has Horst spoke yet?

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That AccuGuess map posted on LancasterOnline is pathetic.  They post about 5"-6" but show a map only for 1"-3".

 

One thing I should caution against folks is that with  inimal downstream blocking this should be a progressive storm, so I have a hard time buying any accumulations great than 8" - 10".  Still, that would be the biggest event for many in 3 years.  

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That AccuGuess map posted on LancasterOnline is pathetic.  They post about 5"-6" but show a map only for 1"-3".

 

One thing I should caution against folks is that with  inimal downstream blocking this should be a progressive storm, so I have a hard time buying any accumulations great than 8" - 10".  Still, that would be the biggest event for many in 3 years.  

As a communications professional who used to work at AccuWx, when weather outlets send mixed messages I want to either cry or strangle a hamster.

 

Anyways, NAM is further north.

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looked earlier lancaster was ok, no?

Lancaster is fine w/ this one, but I think hes saying areas just N and W are "riding the line".  As the typical model trends are playing out, I'd think this ticks NW a pinch, then settles back east for tonights 0z runs.  still a nice "surprise" event with snow OTG for the foreseeable future.  Enjoy.

 

Nut

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Who cares about the euro. It has been getting beaten like a drum lately. 

 

NAM just came in much better. Everything is trending toward GFS.

Well, to its credit, the Euro didn't have end of Jan blowtorch that the GFS was insisting on and finally gave up over the weekend. 

 

The NAM has UNV get .11 now, which is not bad at this point. 

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Well, to its credit, the Euro didn't have end of Jan blowtorch that the GFS was insisting on and finally gave up over the weekend. 

 

The NAM has UNV get .11 now, which is not bad at this point. 

 

GFS actually showed the cold first than lost it. It usually does that. But, it has been showing this storm for a while now and only getting stronger each run. Only model not showing big snows in euro now. 

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Likely outcome how tomorrow plays out. MAG reports snow first out in his place. Us north guys get slightly excited thinking its a little north. Yorkpa25 complains saying he cannot understand why they have a warning. It snows 1.4 inches in Port Matilda, Jamie says he's pleased for extra snow before cold. Harrisburg reports light snow, never really picks up and they get an inch or two. Meanwhile a death band develops over southern York and lancaster counties and yorkpa25 complains snow is too wet lol. I 83 is big winner in the end.

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It looked to me like the Euro was pretty dry here.

 

I was going to say the Euro hasn't been the king it once was. Still it would be nice and would expect noon runs to come up with a consensus. I would like to say it is nice that we have this one happening tomorrow, NOT 4-5 days from now.  :snowwindow:

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