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Central PA & The Fringes - January 2014 Pt II


PennMan

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Final tally here is .6" snow from .05" liquid precip. It would have been nice to get a bit more to ensure we have snow on the ground for the coming deep freeze. It has been a very satisfying winter season so far in regards to snow and cold though. We are at a season total of 22" so far which is only about 4.5" from our season average.

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Anyone know what UNV's total was?

Here:

 

I noticed they dismissed the 3.0 on COCORAHS's Centre Co map as the obvious ravings of a lunatic...

...CENTRE COUNTY...   PHILIPSBURG 2 S        2.4   800 AM  1/18  CO-OP OBSERVER   STATE COLLEGE          2.0   800 AM  1/18  CO-OP OBSERVER   4 E BELLEFONTE         2.0   800 AM  1/18  COCORAHS   2 ESE PORT MATILDA     1.8   700 AM  1/18  COCORAHS   STORMSTOWN             1.7   850 AM  1/18  PUBLIC   NWS STATE COLLEGE      1.2   530 AM  1/18  NWS OFFICE
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Pretty nice slug of snow traversing the midwest states this afternoon/evening. Short-Near term guidance suggests that Ohio is gonna be where this area of snow goes to die however, as they're not really showing much making it into PA. Don't expect very much east of I-99 and up to inch west of it...mainly in the Laurels. 

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I'm going to admit it, as I got older I'm beginning to despise bitter cold weather. Just not my cup of tea, i used to like it as a kid. Here's to a MECS for all of us or at least an interesting windy rainstorm!!

 

I'll gladly take that rainstorm, and then follow it up with SEASONAL winter temperatures.

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I'm going to admit it, as I got older I'm beginning to despise bitter cold weather. Just not my cup of tea, i used to like it as a kid. Here's to a MECS for all of us or at least an interesting windy rainstorm!!

I agree 100%. I had the dog out for a walk last night and we picked up an inch of quick snow and it was 32 and the snow was sticking to everything. Didn't feel too cold and it was fun for the dog too. Walked all over the neighborhood. Tonight I was out and it is snowing lightly and it is 18 and bitter cold. The dog can barely stay out without his paws freezing. And we will have this cold all week too. I think we would all rather have a 6-10 inch snow and 34 instead of this bitter cold and flurries. 

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For anyone who wants to know why I hate winter so much, here is one reason. It's the loading/unloading inlet on my bulk tanker trailer. It's one of six locations that freeze up on my trailer. Just this particular one takes about 20 minutes to thaw out with a torch. Along with that, my vent pipe will freeze up the same way, as well as the caps freezing on, and the actual valve freezing shut after loading. Going farther, at the location I load at, the hoses are stored outside, so instead of being flexible, they are like trying to bend a bar of steel...and that's after hitting the end cap with the torch to get THAT open as well. All of this is very frustrating and time consuming, and makes for a long and miserable work day.

 

post-317-0-72134700-1390130131_thumb.jpg

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Looks like our next possible event could be on Tuesday as the arctic air arrives. The morning 6z guidance and specifically the 9z SREFs really have lit up with this wave compared to the 3z SREFs, which had practically nothing. Look of an arctic wave that hits the coast and fires. Could be more of a southern tier of Pennsylvania thing with regards to who sees snow in our thread and it might be more of a mid-atlantic to I-95 event overall. Def something to watch though with further trends.

 

Heres the SREF comparison:

 

03z Run from last night (at 66hr)

post-1507-0-51230000-1390143196_thumb.gi

 

This morning's 09z SREF (at 60hr)

post-1507-0-99593400-1390143205_thumb.gi

 

 

In longer range news, there seems to be a bit of a battle royale brewing again vs the GFS and Euro/CMC. Last nights 0z GFS out past hr 240 or so had the massive western ridge breaking down and our end of the country warmed up significantly and developing into more of a western trough and keeping us generally on the wrong side of more of a gradient type pattern with a couple systems running lows all the way west into the north central. Folks in California would be rooting for this kind of outcome with their major drought. This is the lol-range of course, but worth noting since it's about the 3rd or 4th run in a row of the GFS that did this. Euro and Canadian operational only go out to 240 but pretty much have wanted nothing to do with this kind of solution, keeping the major western ridge. Not sure what the more extended Euro ensembles had since I don't have access to them. It could be another instance of "if you don't succeed at first, try try again" for the GFS, as we just went through this a little over a week ago. It could be trying to pick up on some kind of shift in the pattern though, as the PNA will be making a massive swing from positive to negative. That doesn't necessarily mean that the outcome would be a major warmup though. Another thing to note is the MJO, which has been generally a non-factor all winter so far.. is forecast to finally come out of the circle into the phase 6 and or 7 depending on what model you look at. Those two phases, and especially 6 in particular would support what the GFS is trying to do. Just some thoughts, I'll add the disclaimer that i'm not an MJO expert by any means. Regardless, it will remain cold throughout the next week to 10 days. 

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