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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


Chicago Storm

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NAEFS continues with the same pattern in the long range:

 

 

 

I'll side with the EURO in beyond Day 10. Our daylight is increasing... it has to feel better outside eventually! lol

 

We will get some sort of pattern shift with the way the PNA is going. Absolutely looking to tank now.

 

pna.sprd2.gif

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Oh man, one of the biggest of big dogs is in play if that's close to being correct.

 

Not that I check it much, but it's by far the weeniest single run I've ever seen from it. Almost off the chart cold and wet...I mean come on.

 

But yeah, the snowfall record for here is toast if that verifies. Like I said, one can dream.

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Not that I check it much, but it's by far the weeniest single run I've ever seen from it. Almost off the chart cold and wet...I mean come on.

 

But yeah, the snowfall record for here is toast if that verifies. Like I said, one can dream.

 

I don't look at it often either but yeah, that's as weenie a run as i can remember seeing

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I don't think I can recall a time when JB is in disbelief of the extremes he's seeing in the models.  Referring to the Canadian and GFS ensembles:

 

 Remember last week when I called what was coming the last 10 days of the month "crisis cold" Well this outdoes it.. 16 days, incomprehensible cold ( I dont believe it can be this cold this long in the east)

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maybe, but they still show a weak-moderate pna signature even though the ensembles show a -pna developing. something isn't firing right in the sampling imo. The polar flow should be lifting north by 29th with a trough developing in the west.

 

Yeah that's definitely facts. Seeing some indications of a western trough on the 0z EURO - I believe I saw.

 

By 300 hours - SE ridge.

 

eps_t850a_exnamer_49.png

 

12z GFS had the ridge pushing further east into the continental US. Models are going to be a mess for awhile I think.

 

gfs_t850_sig_noram_33.png

 

 

No thanks to the CFS. This time next week I'll be ready for spring indefinitely.!

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maybe, but they still show a weak-moderate pna signature even though the ensembles show a -pna developing. something isn't firing right in the sampling imo. The polar flow should be lifting north by 29th with a trough developing in the west.

 

We had a largely negative PNA November-about the 3rd week of December.  It was also more or less neutral to only slightly positive during the last major outbreak.  Yet the winter has largely been far more cold than not, so not sure why a -PNA means there won't be a cold outbreak the last 10 days of the month, especially when the PNA looks be positive until the last few days. 

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We have water mains here in La Crosse blowing out...i guess the cold was freezing them and the thawing temps have made them crack.  So they've had to close down lanes to rip apart the streets. 

 

NWS La Crosse seems to buy into the cold Feb

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=arx&storyid=99813&source=0

 

Until the NAEFS starts showing some changes, i'm riding the cold train.

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right, but that was because there was a huge -EPO.........which won't be there this time in that size imo. Models love to overamp pac ridging and this causes disorganization late into truncation. Notice a few "changes" and you get a downstream western trough with a -epo and flat ridge over the east. To me, the pattern is changed by the 30th. Which is the point and my point against Bustardi. The suppressed, clipper pattern says adios.

 

Oh really? :huh:

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

 

And believe me i want the +PNA to relax a bit as well ( help bring the storm track/more action back up this way ) but if it does it does not mean the cold is going anywhere either NOT with the -EPO.

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Essentially, I would rather have snow on the ground throughout the winter than have bare ground most of the time and one or two big snowfalls that melt three days later, which is what tends to happen down in the Mid Atlantic.

 

Ok, fair enough. What factors people take into consideration when judging whether a winter is good or bad will vary. My point is that the fact that we're in a snowfall minima for the region is reminiscent of 2009-10.

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Ok, fair enough. What factors people take into consideration when judging whether a winter is good or bad will vary. My point is that the fact that we're in a snowfall minima for the region is reminiscent of 2009-10.

 

Cool. :hug:

How much for Edmonton?

Edmonton is experiencing a torch...by their standards, :sun:  :maphot:

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