A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 total snooze fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 total snooze fest yep....especially considering those modest snowfall totals will probably not even verify. Euro looks kick-in-the-ballz cold from day 8 on....fugly, all I'm gonna want to do is snooze. I'm just trying to figure out how CMH gets it's inevitable rain in this pattern. I'm thinking a piece of the vortex breaks off and drops sw and phases with an incoming southern stream and we end up with GHD II or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 yep....especially considering those modest snowfall totals will probably not even verify. Euro looks kick-in-the-ballz cold from day 8 on....fugly, all I'm gonna want to do is snooze. I'm just trying to figure out how CMH gets it's inevitable rain in this pattern. I'm thinking a piece of the vortex breaks off and drops sw and phases with an incoming southern stream and we end up with GHD II or something like that. Inevitable Buck. Inevitable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm definitely on board for what the EURO/GEM/GFS show beyond D7. Keeping -EPO, weakening the PNA ridge a bit and lifting the PV north enough to allow for systems to amplify a bit, but not so much as to flush all the cold air out. Could be an excellent storm pattern. Until then...ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm definitely on board for what the EURO/GEM/GFS show beyond D7. Keeping -EPO, weakening the PNA ridge a bit and lifting the PV north enough to allow for systems to amplify a bit, but not so much as to flush all the cold air out. Could be an excellent storm pattern. Until then...ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ The pattern going into early February looks promising, although that is still way out in fantasy-land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The pattern going into early February looks promising, although that is still way out in fantasy-land. We could easily end up being mostly rain. But l agree with Harry in that I'm willing to take that chance just to get things more active around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 surprised to see ORD is already over their season average...couple big dogs plus near constant clipper nickel and dime action will do that. Could post a real big number if we can get another big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nice storm at 168 on the OP ECMWF. Lock it in. Obviously as per discussion above, there's no sense taking that to the bank but it's nice to see a big storm signal pop up (especially a non-coastal system). Agree with other posters though that the pattern should start to get interesting again as we transition out of Jan into Feb. Stale pattern has kept me off the board for a while, probably for the better as I was spending far too many hours on the models/boards in December/early January haha. Funny how the meteorological definition of winter is so much different than the general public's. Heard this headline on Toronto's news radio (680News) today: "Well we aren't even a third of the way through winter, but it looks like chilly temperatures are here to stay for a while." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nice storm at 168 on the OP ECMWF. Lock it in. Obviously as per discussion above, there's no sense taking that to the bank but it's nice to see a big storm signal pop up (especially a non-coastal system). Agree with other posters though that the pattern should start to get interesting again as we transition out of Jan into Feb. Stale pattern has kept me off the board for a while, probably for the better as I was spending far too many hours on the models/boards in December/early January haha. Funny how the meteorological definition of winter is so much different than the general public's. Heard this headline on Toronto's news radio (680News) today: "Well we aren't even a third of the way through winter, but it looks like chilly temperatures are here to stay for a while." Am I missing something? All I see on the EURO at 168 is a clipper whiffing us to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Am I missing something? All I see on the EURO at 168 is a clipper whiffing us to the south.He's talking about the 00z EURO. The 12z EURO is garbage like how the rest of this month has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 OUR ATTENTION FOR THE WEEKEND TURNS TO THE STRONGLY AMPLIFYING RIDGEOVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE SHARPLY TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL JET STREAK THAT WILL COME DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW DROPS OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING. A LOOK AT THE 1.5 PVU SURFACES OF BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IS UNNERVING AS HEIGHTS DROP TO ANYWHERE FROM 650MB TO 725MB IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH A 980ISH MB SURFACE LOW REACHING MAXIMUM INTENSITY OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY SATURDAY. WHILE THERE ARE TIMING/POSITION DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING THE FINER DETAILS...THIS SCENARIO BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS IT COULD BRING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM/WIND EVENT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...AT LEAST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WINTER WILL BE HERE TO STAY FOR QUITE SOME TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 surprised to see ORD is already over their season average...couple big dogs plus near constant clipper nickel and dime action will do that. Could post a real big number if we can get another big dog. Many midwest/Lakes cities have already exceeded their seasonal average and its not quite to the halfway point of the season. With the spread the wealth nature that different storms have taken, it could be a historic season if the 2nd half is anything close to the first. Average season total already exceeded through January 19th: STL...20.2"........(avg entire season..17.8"....avg thru 1/19....8.5") DAY...30.2"........(avg entire season..24.0"....avg thru 1/19..10.3") IND....32.3"........(avg entire season..25.9"....avg thru 1/19..13.2") ORD..38.9"........(avg entire season..36.7"....avg thru 1/19..16.1") TOL...41.0"........(avg entire season..37.6"....avg thru 1/19..16.4") DTW..43.1"........(avg entire season..42.7"....avg thru 1/19..19.0") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 He's talking about the 00z EURO. The 12z EURO is garbage like how the rest of this month has been. Check out the talk from the Buffalo NWS. I believe what they talk about would include Toronto, not exactly sure. Haven't looked at many of the models lately. Ayuud posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 total snooze fest Yep, but it also clarifies to me that, not unlike myself, you'll never be satisfied, even with our solid climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yep, but it also clarifies to me that, not unlike myself, you'll never be satisfied, even with our solid climo. Thats actually true for a lot of people on weather boards, I have found over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Check out the talk from the Buffalo NWS. I believe what they talk about would include Toronto, not exactly sure. Haven't looked at many of the models lately. Ayuud posted it. Would be nice if that happened. A nice fresh layer of snow before Siberia round 3 arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 He's talking about the 00z EURO. The 12z EURO is garbage like how the rest of this month has been. And you gave me a hard time for feeling negative about this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 And you gave me a hard time for feeling negative about this month. I honestly don't see what the problem is. I went for a walk today and it looked and felt very wintry. Fresh layer of snow, plenty of snow on the local hill for people who want to toboggan, local pond frozen solid and looking like something out of a picture postcard. It looks like winter. Feels like winter. We had snow for the buildup to Christmas, a classic, frosty Christmas Eve and snow on the ground on Christmas Day. This has been a reasonable winter, far better than the past two crap winters. 2011-2012 was godawful, as was the first half of 2012-2013. It could be a lot worse! In my mind, I feel like we are having a traditional winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I honestly don't see what the problem is. I went for a walk today and it looked and felt very wintry. Fresh layer of snow, plenty of snow on the local hill for people who want to toboggan, local pond frozen solid and looking like something out of a picture postcard. It looks like winter. Feels like winter. We had snow for the buildup to Christmas, a classic, frosty Christmas Eve and snow on the ground on Christmas Day. This has been a reasonable winter, far better than the past two crap winters. 2011-2012 was godawful, as was the first half of 2012-2013. It could be a lot worse! In my mind, I feel like we are having a traditional winter. Assuming we get no big storm the rest of the way, and/or no 1-2 week period of several moderate snowfalls, 2012-13 will have 2013-14 beat imho. Feb 8, 2013 is the trump card. Temps are a humungous difference but like I said earlier, it really has no bearing in my assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Assuming we get no big storm the rest of the way, and/or no 1-2 week period of several moderate snowfalls, 2012-13 will have 2013-14 beat imho. Feb 8, 2013 is the trump card. Temps are a humungous difference but like I said earlier, it really has no bearing in my assessment. Albeit Dec.14 was a pleasant surprise, Feb 8 still takes the cake. The fact that it has been very "normal" (and some decent cold shots), I'd say 13-14 is still winning but by a VERY slim margin. I absolutely agree that 12-13 takes it for its strong second half if 13-14 doesn't deliver next month. 13-14 first half < 12-13's second half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Albeit Dec.14 was a pleasant surprise, Feb 8 still takes the cake. The fact that it has been very "normal" (and some decent cold shots), I'd say 13-14 is still winning but by a VERY slim margin. I absolutely agree that 12-13 takes it for its strong second half if 13-14 doesn't deliver next month. 13-14 first half < 12-13's second half After two weeks of nothingness, the GFS wants to re-up us for another two weeks. All that storminess it was showing on those earlier runs has evaporated. The horseshoe shape area of + snowfall departures around us is starting to remind me a bit of 2009-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Assuming we get no big storm the rest of the way, and/or no 1-2 week period of several moderate snowfalls, 2012-13 will have 2013-14 beat imho. Feb 8, 2013 is the trump card. Temps are a humungous difference but like I said earlier, it really has no bearing in my assessment. The length of time we have snow on the grounds factors into my assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 After two weeks of nothingness, the GFS wants to re-up us for another two weeks. All that storminess it was showing on those earlier runs has evaporated. The horseshoe shape area of + snowfall departures around us is starting to remind me a bit of 2009-10. 09-10 is a good analog. It matches perfectly for the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 After two weeks of nothingness, the GFS wants to re-up us for another two weeks. All that storminess it was showing on those earlier runs has evaporated. The horseshoe shape area of + snowfall departures around us is starting to remind me a bit of 2009-10. I think there is definitely some pattern potential coming up. PNA falling, EPO ridge retro's and some weak blocking develops over the top past D9. Could mean we see the storm track back too far west or we may really cash in on some nice pac disturbances(has a Dec 2008 look to it). In the 96-240hr range the 0z euro really changed its tune with 3 sizeable clippers moving through dropping .2"+ of QPF each. The GFS has two of them across our area but is further south with the third one. Would be high ratio snow's, so if the model puts out .2-.3" of liquid could end up with some impressive totals. Something to watch for, although i'm not betting the farm on the upcoming clipper train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 EURO 850mb temperature anomalies next Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 09-10 is a good analog. It matches perfectly for the west coast. Not so much for Toronto. That winter saw the city with bare ground while places all around it - and in Europe - were getting bombed with snow. I have about a 4" snowpack. It was also much warmer in Quebec due to high latitude blocking which torched Labrador. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not so much for Toronto. That winter saw the city with bare ground while places all around it - and in Europe - were getting bombed with snow. I have about a 4" snowpack. It was also much warmer in Quebec due to high latitude blocking which torched Labrador. There hasn't been much snow depth at all in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This pattern blows... one mild day (Sat) and then back into the dumpster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 EURO 850mb temperature anomalies next Thursday. NAEFS continues with the same pattern in the long range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not so much for Toronto. That winter saw the city with bare ground while places all around it - and in Europe - were getting bombed with snow. I have about a 4" snowpack. It was also much warmer in Quebec due to high latitude blocking which torched Labrador. Snowdepth at Pearson and downtown is 2". Places all around us are getting bombed with snow. We've had more total snow obviously, but wrt to us being in a relative screwhole, 2009-10 does seem to fit nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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