Hoosier Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Euro opens up the floodgates at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Euro opens up the floodgates at the end of the run. If you use a little imagination, it kinda looks like the chain of events of Jan 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 GFS shows a significant blast of cold that would come close to the early month cold around days 11-12...Euro days 10-11. Just looking at things, the signals over the Pacific continue to strongly point to a very amplified ridge into Alaksa for late January. Convection continues to rage over the western Tropical Pacific and the Euro now agrees with the GFS in developing a pretty strong phase 6-7 MJO pulse over the next week...a couple of days ago the Euro was not nearly this optimistic (although the GFS was): I guess at this point one "red flag" to this extreme cold idea (other than being at day 10 right now) is after late next week, neither the 12z GFS or 0z ECM ensemble means show 850mb temps nearly as cold as the operational models currently do...although both ensembles do show the trough amplifying in the day 10-12 timeframe so I'd have to imagine we'll see the ensemble means gradually trend colder with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 If you use a little imagination, it kinda looks like the chain of events of Jan 4-7. Imagination is the key word. The PV behaves a bit differently this time. There are hints of something getting going in the southern Plains at 240 hours but it would probably be crushed given the upper air pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Imagination is the key word. The PV behaves a bit differently this time. There are hints of something getting going in the southern Plains at 240 hours but it would probably be crushed given the upper air pattern. Right, was just saying...imagination needed. Thankfully the 12z GEFS aren't overbearing with the cold like the op run. Still cold, but better for snow purposes. Though it would be nice to line up one big cold shot before winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 That's awesome. I'd have to run the numbers, but I bet Indy is flirting with the top 5 as well. I'm hoping it verifies. Like I said, I want to see if we can make this Toronto's coldest January in 10 years, perhaps 20 if we can surpass 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I'm hoping it verifies. Like I said, I want to see if we can make this Toronto's coldest January in 10 years, perhaps 20 if we can surpass 2004. Might as well track cold since we probably won't see a storm drop more than 4" for the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 If anything....I would say the next cold shot looks more like the beginning of December (6th - 9th ish) arctic blast we had (and, IMO, fits the pattern better as we progress from an abundant NW flow to a progressive cutter/slider pattern)....the difference this time is there will be a little bit better snowpack around potentially....so there could be some possibilities at temps reaching the levels that we reached in early January.... just my 2 cents FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Bam! I'll be revisiting this pic in 10 days...see how it turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 If you're looking for spring, don't loop the entire run of today's 12z op GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 It'll be here quicker than you/we think. Time flies. And hopefully with an active severe weather season. In the mean time, 12z Euro ensemble mean at 240 hours. That's a big blob of -20º to -25ºC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 for posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Look at how delicious the 12z GFS looks for LSE...YUM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 My heating Bills are going to be outrageous. I truly hate the brutal cold, hoping for a pattern break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 My heating Bills are going to be outrageous. I truly hate the brutal cold, hoping for a pattern break. +100 Wouldn't mind a repeat of last February here. Not really cold, but snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 i'm glad i put in a woodstove a few years back. can't imagine what my heat bill would look like without it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 My heating Bills are going to be outrageous. I truly hate the brutal cold, hoping for a pattern break. nicor did an estimated reading in December....and did an actual reading a few days ago....The bill for December wasn't bad, but I have a feeling that the "actual reading" bill coming in a few days is gonna be a kick in the junk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 for posterity USA_TMP_850mb_240.gif I think it might be time for another cold thread just like earlier in the month. Although I hope these maps are wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 heck, December was +.6 imby. December 2010 was far colder. sure....but this billing cycle includes the cold snap in the beginning of January too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 +100 Wouldn't mind a repeat of last February here. Not really cold, but snowy. Agreed. The cold is not enjoyable to me at all. When its brutally cold I can't even go boarding. Give me 28-32 with snow everyday over brutal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 nicor did an estimated reading in December....and did an actual reading a few days ago....The bill for December wasn't bad, but I have a feeling that the "actual reading" bill coming in a few days is gonna be a kick in the junk Mine was estimated to, I am scared to see what the actual was. =( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Now now, you get a whopping 0.25" from days 6-16. USA_APCPI240_sfc_384.gif I don't care where the polar vortex is dancing around or how suppressive the pattern becomes, I have no doubt that somehow...some way....it will find a way to rain in CMH in a tiny 12 hour period sandwiched somewhere in that 6-16 day range....even if the average temp mean during that period is -20. Most likely timing for rain will be on the eve of POLAR VORTEX II the sequel wiping out any existing snow cover first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 i'm glad i put in a woodstove a few years back. can't imagine what my heat bill would look like without it I can't imagine the $$misery for those poor souls who heat entirely with electricity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Agreed. The cold is not enjoyable to me at all. When its brutally cold I can't even go boarding. Give me 28-32 with snow everyday over brutal cold. I like how the brutal cold freezes up the ponds though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I don't care where the polar vortex is dancing around or how suppressive the pattern becomes, I have no doubt that somehow...some way....it will find a way to rain in CMH in a tiny 12 hour period sandwiched somewhere in that 6-16 day range....even if the average temp mean during that period is -20. Most likely timing for rain will be on the eve of POLAR VORTEX II the sequel wiping out any existing snow cover first. Sounds like you live in America's version of Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Sounds like you live in America's version of Toronto. or the DC of Canada for you and the DC west of the apps for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I don't care where the polar vortex is dancing around or how suppressive the pattern becomes, I have no doubt that somehow...some way....it will find a way to rain in CMH in a tiny 12 hour period sandwiched somewhere in that 6-16 day range....even if the average temp mean during that period is -20. Most likely timing for rain will be on the eve of POLAR VORTEX II the sequel wiping out any existing snow cover first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Might as well track cold since we probably won't see a storm drop more than 4" for the rest of the winter.Dude please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Dude please. I think we'll likely see some good storms in February and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 12euro.....next 10 days total snowfall.....meh....comes in a couple of waves including tomorrow and again next week. It's also cold but hardly historic or record breaking for mid to late January, in fact most of us bottom out close to zero.....at least until very late in the period when colder values begin to drop in. cut off the scale, purple is the 6" mark. Huge OOPS....looked at wrong thing. Actually we get below zero next week and by about day 8 looks close to -15ish here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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