Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 How cold we talking for like ORD? I'm not great at translating from 850 mb maps, but it looks like Chicago might get a day as cold as the last cold shot. Likely depends on how much snow is on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 126-180 it's the coldest over the subforum before moderation comes in from the Mountain West. Nothing under -5° from what I can tell around here. The following extended range looks cold, but not as cold as last week or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I'm not great at translating from 850 mb maps, but it looks like Chicago might get a day as cold as the last cold shot. Likely depends on how much snow is on the ground. I'm assuming you're talking about the cold shot at day 10-11. If that prog verifies then the cold could approach what happened earlier this month. Gotta throw up a caution flag since it's so far out but multi-model/ensemble signals for a significant cold shot or two (mixed in within the overall below average regime) are pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 About the coldest night next week. Kind of nasty too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I can't help but to like the stretch that may last well over a week starting around the 25th...the models and ensembles have been pretty consistent in trying to retrograde the ridge a bit off the west coast and allow shortwaves to dive into the Plains as opposed to the Great Lakes...possibly giving room for some of them to amplify. Still a long ways out but the GFS has been showing storm chances after that timeframe for I believe 4 runs now and we'll have to see if that trend continues. The 12z Euro wasn't looking hopeless at day 10 either...but again day 9+ so we'll see. The models start showing the retrograde late next week so I suppose that isn't too far out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Gonna be extremely hard to top the last arctic outbreak. It's very rare around here to have -10 ambient temps with 20-25mph winds during the middle of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 GFS might be on crack...drops my temps to -33F at 324hrs... lots of subzero temps to chose from. Looks like many shots of cold air... i'll pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I can't help but to like the stretch that may last well over a week starting around the 25th...the models and ensembles have been pretty consistent in trying to retrograde the ridge a bit off the west coast and allow shortwaves to dive into the Plains as opposed to the Great Lakes...possibly giving room for some of them to amplify. Still a long ways out but the GFS has been showing storm chances after that timeframe for I believe 4 runs now and we'll have to see if that trend continues. The 12z Euro wasn't looking hopeless at day 10 either...but again day 9+ so we'll see. The models start showing the retrograde late next week so I suppose that isn't too far out at this point. I infer from that the further south you go in the subforum, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 This pattern looks dead as a door nail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I infer from that the further south you go in the subforum, the better. South and east. There really is no -NAO progged in the extended though so depending on where exactly the PV sets up areas farther NW can't be completely ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 NAEFS is even stronger with the cold now in the extended range...especially east of here. Get ready boys. California heatwave continues, as does Alaska. Last week someone from Germany had a picture of a flower pot with flowers still blooming...said they've only had very light frosts so far this year.... amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 South and east. There really is no -NAO progged in the extended though so depending on where exactly the PV sets up areas farther NW can't be completely ruled out. progressive cutters-ish with not much room for amplification seems about right IMO...favoring the OV more than the western GL....with that being said, this set-up also allowed for some unusually nice fronto snows (with a little better ratio's) to break out ahead of main system snows for locals further NW...with the magnitude of "cold punches" this season, it wouldn't shock me to see a similar set-up through the end of February...that being said, I could see a few (of the many) cutter-ish type systems amplifying enough to bring some solid system snows further NW (as you alluded to)... nice write-ups btw cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 progressive cutters-ish with not much room for amplification seems about right IMO...favoring the OV more than the western GL....with that being said, this set-up also allowed for some unusually nice fronto snows (with a little better ratio's) to break out ahead of main system snows for locals further NW...with the magnitude of "cold punches" this season, it wouldn't shock me to see a similar set-up through the end of February...that being said, I could see a few (of the many) cutter-ish type systems amplifying enough to bring some solid system snows further NW (as you alluded to)... nice write-ups btw cheers hierarchy = OV > WL > EL (minus Josh of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 this pattern blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 hierarchy = OV > WL > EL (minus Josh of course). lol...IMO, I would have to agree for the most part...will be curious to see how much influence the STJ/or at least some variation of pac moisture has over the next 5 weeks though...that can help "spread the wealth" a bit...at least that's what i'm watching FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Love the look of the pattern going forward. I think the chances of another big dog is out there, even extending through most of February...if those in the know are correct. PV wobbling around timed with an impulse...and voila. I guess if you don't like cold and snow...might want to pull the shades. Just a snapshot in time, but 6z GFS day 8+ analogs offer something for a lot of people around those dates, and going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Liking the optimism going past late next week. Right now, this pattern isn't much fun. I had well over a foot of snow down here not too long ago, now I have a 2"-3" crust that has pretty much frozen solid, with lots of green patches showing through it. I would love some more clippers to bring us more snow, even if it is 3 or 4 inches at a time. - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 This pattern looks dead as a door nail. This is never going to be an historic winter in terms of snowfall, so we may as well make it memorable for the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Retrogression and flattening of the PNA ridge...and the potential for funner times are possible for quite a few in this sub-forum. GEFS 850 temp and precip anomalies for the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 If you're looking for spring, don't loop the entire run of today's 12z op GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 South and east. There really is no -NAO progged in the extended though so depending on where exactly the PV sets up areas farther NW can't be completely ruled out. After the first week of January's complete dud, I think that's a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 If you're looking for spring, don't loop the entire run of today's 12z op GFS. Looks like we might be able to keep our snow for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Looks like we might be able to keep our snow for a while. Probably ranks right up there with one of the coldest runs I've ever seen. And the GFS has always liked its cold fantasy land runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 As I said in the Ohio thread, if the GFS verified verbatim, it'd be a top 5 coldest January ever. Even modified some, it's a top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 As I said in the Ohio thread, if the GFS verified verbatim, it'd be a top 5 coldest January ever. Even modified some, it's a top 10. That's awesome. I'd have to run the numbers, but I bet Indy is flirting with the top 5 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 If you're looking for spring, don't loop the entire run of today's 12z op GFS. i did, brutal dry cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 i did, brutal dry cold Now now, you get a whopping 0.25" from days 6-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Now now, you get a whopping 0.25" from days 6-16. High ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 After the first week of January's complete dud, I think that's a safe bet. Unless the models are really out to lunch I'd have to imagine the pattern will favor snow over OH and points south/east for a time before perhaps shifting farther NW towards early February as the ridge off the west coast retrogrades. There is no -NAO which is why I'm worried we'll eventually get into a warmer/rainy pattern in Ohio but through about the end of the month I can't help but like our chances with the PV being centered north of Lake Superior. This could be a pattern that eventually benefits a good majority of the sub forum although patience may be required in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 That's awesome. I'd have to run the numbers, but I bet Indy is flirting with the top 5 as well. The mean would be about 18.5 degrees. Only 3 years would be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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