michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 watching that jet get it's act together nicely....truth be told, I haven't seen a streak (in the pacific) of this magnitude in quite awhile. Pattern nearly reset.... 14011412_jetstream_norhem.gif in lamens terms lol...more active weather returning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I've been much too busy to look much at the long range until the last day or two...and when the short range is consistently busy for what seemed like two months straight, who needs long range? After a brief break, rather persistent convection has returned to the Western Pacific to Australia. This is where it was pretty persistent in much of December, especially the last 10 days of the month, and it lead to a very strong -EPO and intense cold over the Midwest and Great Lakes to start January. This is resulting in the very strong jet over the Western Pacific noted above...and where the jet breaks to the NE of this convection, storms are favored (and shown on models), with these persistent storms pumping up heights to their east. The GFS ensembles strongly suggest convection persisting over the Western Pacific for the next two weeks, suggesting the current building +PNA and eventual -EPO may have some staying power into February: The GFS, Euro and Canadian all are in good agreement (and have been) on keeping the PNA positive for at least the next 10 days with the ridging building into Alaska...which makes sense if the convection continues to be persistent over the Western Pacific. How cold things may ultimately come is up in the air, but all 3 models suggest a cross polar or near cross polar flow is possible by late next week...so if this pattern persists some pretty impressive cold may eventually come south. Through the next 10 days, other than maybe Saturday's clipper, there are no real storm threats showing up on the models. I'd like to think there is some chance next Tuesday-Wednesday as the trough really begins to dig into the Midwest after a bit of a relaxation to start next week, but the models aren't enthused right now. With the PV centered over Hudson Bay and trough centered right over the Great Lakes, I'm not sure that we'll be able to get a larger, more widespread storm through the end of January...it would really be better for the trough to be centered farther west. We'll see, still a long way to go. Maybe storm chances will arise as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 in lamens terms lol...more active weather returning? lol....indeed...imo to expound a little bit as the Hawks game went to commercial...a bit of a yawner period still unfolding as it did late November - early December....but I expect a flip to more cutters after that ... perhaps towards the 20th - 22nd ish timeframe or soon afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I've been much too busy to look much at the long range until the last day or two...and when the short range is consistently busy for what seemed like two months straight, who needs long range? After a brief break, rather persistent convection has returned to the Western Pacific to Australia. This is where it was pretty persistent in much of December, especially the last 10 days of the month, and it lead to a very strong -EPO and intense cold over the Midwest and Great Lakes to start January. MJO IR.gif This is resulting in the very strong jet over the Western Pacific noted above...and where the jet breaks to the NE of this convection, storms are favored (and shown on models), with these persistent storms pumping up heights to their east. The GFS ensembles strongly suggest convection persisting over the Western Pacific for the next two weeks, suggesting the current building +PNA and eventual -EPO may have some staying power into February: GEFS ORL.gif The GFS, Euro and Canadian all are in good agreement (and have been) on keeping the PNA positive for at least the next 10 days with the ridging building into Alaska...which makes sense if the convection continues to be persistent over the Western Pacific. How cold things may ultimately come is up in the air, but all 3 models suggest a cross polar or near cross polar flow is possible by late next week...so if this pattern persists some pretty impressive cold may eventually come south. test8.gif Through the next 10 days, other than maybe Saturday's clipper, there are no real storm threats showing up on the models. I'd like to think there is some chance next Tuesday-Wednesday as the trough really begins to dig into the Midwest after a bit of a relaxation to start next week, but the models aren't enthused right now. With the PV centered over Hudson Bay and trough centered right over the Great Lakes, I'm not sure that we'll be able to get a larger, more widespread storm through the end of January...it would really be better for the trough to be centered farther west. We'll see, still a long way to go. Maybe storm chances will arise as we get closer. Nice post. I'm also watching the middle of next week though not much showing up at this point as you said. The transition is going to require some patience and hopefully it eventually yields in the form of bigger storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 lol....indeed...imo to expound a little bit as the Hawks game went to commercial...a bit of a yawner period still unfolding as it did late November - early December....but I expect a flip to more cutters after that ... perhaps towards the 20th - 22nd ish timeframe or soon afterwards Im sitting 3" away from my seasonal average and it is not yet the halfway mark of winter...and yet....a week free of snowstorms and a fresh 17" snowpack turned into a dirty 4" glacier later...Im getting impatient. Oh the greed of a winter weather weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Im sitting 3" away from my seasonal average and it is not yet the halfway mark of winter...and yet....a week free of snowstorms and a fresh 17" snowpack turned into a dirty 4" glacier later...Im getting impatient. Oh the greed of a winter weather weenie lol ... Understandable....2nd week of December through the first week of January was a non stop winter storm track-fest....combine that with a paltry set of winters the last 2 years...well, the last 5 weeks of weather has been almost dizzying...once things get going again here, I expect them to be quite similar...system after system to track...I hoping we get that anomalously strong pac jet to bundle in with some of these systems (or at least one)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Nice post. I'm also watching the middle of next week though not much showing up at this point as you said. The transition is going to require some patience and hopefully it eventually yields in the form of bigger storms. Thanks. I'd have to imagine if we stay cold some storm prospects will eventually start showing up on the models...even if it takes until the last few days of January or into February. I don't mind a cold NW flow, it would be nice to get some snow down here in SE Ohio, even if it's only an inch at a time that melts the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Im sitting 3" away from my seasonal average and it is not yet the halfway mark of winter...and yet....a week free of snowstorms and a fresh 17" snowpack turned into a dirty 4" glacier later...Im getting impatient. Oh the greed of a winter weather weenie I want more snow and more cold. I'd like to see if Toronto can get its January mean down into the teens. Also, this thaw has obliterated 80% of my snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I want more snow and more cold. I'd like to see if Toronto can get its January mean down into the teens. Also, this thaw has obliterated 80% of my snowpack. Agree on all accounts...and it got rid of about 75-80% of ours as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 How I explain this winter.... Warmth, followed by snow then cold, snow and wipe the slate clean. Repeat!! Going to be a week or so break in the action. The full moon will dictate this weather to continue for 5-10 more days then things will have a chance to reset. Been a great run in the weather, some fun storms and moderate snows but still awaiting the Biggen.... Thinking on pulling the trigger on some more equipment this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 How I explain this winter.... Warmth, followed by snow then cold, snow and wipe the slate clean. Repeat!! Going to be a week or so break in the action. The full moon will dictate this weather to continue for 5-10 more days then things will have a chance to reset. Been a great run in the weather, some fun storms and moderate snows but still awaiting the Biggen.... Thinking on pulling the trigger on some more equipment this week. Are you related to Roger Smith, by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Well, the last couple runs of the GFS have shown a bit more of an active long range (mainly after day 8) and the 0z Euro did try to show the trough digging down mid next week taking on a negative tilt...although it did ultimately fail and didn't wrap up much of a storm for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Roger Smith ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 End of the month/beginning of February could be fun I think...as we get retrogression and heights lower in the West. 12z GFS was a somewhat entertaining loop in lala land, showing some possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Euro and GFS are both showing brutal temperatures in about 9-10 days. Lows may be colder than last week's event for the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Euro and GFS are both showing brutal temperatures in about 9-10 days. Lows may be colder than last week's event for the GTA. The EPO ridge goes insane on the 12z euro and the trough would cover much of the country. 500mb heights of 576 reaching AK is very impressive. Would pave the way for another visit from the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The Return of The Polar Vortex The Bride of The Polar Vortex Any other names? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Roger Smith ??? I'm joking. He posts on this board quite a lot, saying the phases of the moon affect our weather patterns. A lot of what he says is quite interesting, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Euro and GFS are both showing brutal temperatures in about 9-10 days. Lows may be colder than last week's event for the GTA. Get outta town! no thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Everyone should take a look at Earthlight's write-up about the upcoming pattern in the NYC sub-forum under January discussion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Everyone should take a look at Earthlight's write-up about the upcoming pattern in the NYC sub-forum under January discussion! Good discussion! I think from a stats perspective this is going to be one hell of a winter for cold+snow in these parts. Now, obviously they are focused extremely on the northeast, but being on the western fringes of the northeast US, I would say we can easily get the western edge of some storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Everyone should take a look at Earthlight's write-up about the upcoming pattern in the NYC sub-forum under January discussion! If it all plays out as modeled with the PV dropping back in then yeah the chances for bombs goes up and not just for east of the apps either which we can thank the lack of Atlantic blocking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 If it all plays out as modeled with the PV dropping back in then yeah the chances for bombs goes up and not just for east of the apps either which we can thank the lack of Atlantic blocking for. Wow...if it does get active again we could be seeing not only another historic snow season in southern MI (the new normal of the 21st century apparently ), but our coldest winter in over 30 years (see 1981-82). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Wow...if it does get active again we could be seeing not only another historic snow season in southern MI (the new normal of the 21st century apparently ), but our coldest winter in over 30 years (see 1981-82). Colder than even 1993-94? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 If it all plays out as modeled with the PV dropping back in then yeah the chances for bombs goes up and not just for east of the apps either which we can thank the lack of Atlantic blocking for. Yep. I'm liking the opportunities if the pattern plays out as currently modeled. Could last awhile too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Colder than even 1993-94? In 140 years of records, 1993-94 ranks "only" as the 25th coldest winter on record for Detroit. Yes the arctic outbreak was historic, but the DJF temp as a whole wasnt among the most earth shattering here. For comparison, the winters of 2002-03 & 2010-10 (which tie for 28th coldest winters on record) were only 0.2F warmer than 1993-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 In 140 years of records, 1993-94 ranks "only" as the 25th coldest winter on record for Detroit. Yes the arctic outbreak was historic, but the DJF temp as a whole wasnt among the most earth shattering here. For comparison, the winters of 2002-03 & 2010-10 (which tie for 28th coldest winters on record) were only 0.2F warmer than 1993-94. It's amazing how the weather records in Toronto and Detroit are so different. 1993-94 is a standout winter in Toronto. January 1994 was the coldest since 1920 in downtown Toronto and the coldest since 1945 at Pearson airport. It was also the coldest January-February period since 1920. January 1994 was the coldest of the twentieth century in Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 It's amazing how the weather records in Toronto and Detroit are so different. 1993-94 is a standout winter in Toronto. January 1994 was the coldest since 1920 in downtown Toronto and the coldest since 1945 at Pearson airport. It was also the coldest January-February period since 1920. January 1994 was the coldest of the twentieth century in Ottawa. I have noticed the recent snowfall disparity between Detroit and Toronto, but a bit surprised about the temps. January 1994 is tied (w/ 2009) for 11th coldest January however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The 0z GFS is absolutely epic in terms of cold for our sub-forum, with the cold coming in as early as next Tuesday on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princessugly Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The 0z GFS is absolutely epic in terms of cold for our sub-forum, with the cold coming in as early as next Tuesday on this run. How cold we talking for like ORD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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