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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

Chicago Storm

By Chicago Storm,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted

It's  only the 13th dude. Relax lot's of time left.

 

 

6.4" at YYZ as of Jan 13th is a bit above normal. They only average 11.6" for the month. I'm not sure what he's getting at when he says "embarrassingly low".

I agree. Usually it's me who goes into meltdown about this stuff. It's taken awhile but, snowfall wise, I'm re-acclimatized to Toronto and have psychologically accepted that it won't snow here like it does in Ottawa.

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted

I think this winter will be more about the cold than the snow for the Toronto area. It will be interesting to see if each of the three winter months (DJF) will finish below normal, temperature wise.

Looking ahead, it looks like we'll nickel and dime in the snowfall department. Hopefully one of these clipper disturbances will blow up and give a decent snowfall. Pattern is looking similar to that of January 2003 (ridge/warm temps out west and cold conditions over the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast).

It'll be interesting to see what our mean temperature for January will end up as. If we can beat 2009, it'll be the coldest January in 10 years.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

I agree. Usually it's me who goes into meltdown about this stuff. It's taken awhile but, snowfall wise, I'm re-acclimatized to Toronto and have psychologically accepted that it won't snow here like it does in Ottawa.

 

We've done reasonably well this year so far. It's just when compared to some other nearby locales it becomes a little disappointing to see what we've missed out on. 

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WestCoaster

WestCoaster

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Posted

We've done reasonably well this year so far. It's just when compared to some other nearby locales it becomes a little disappointing to see what we've missed out on. 

 

That's what it is: what the other numbers nearby are like, and YYZ's pitiful number in comparison. Not in terms of average. In terms of average, it's been fine, much better than the last couple of winters I would say; however, when everyone around you is getting quite an epic start, it's tough. Albeit Chicago had a slow start again, they are sure making up for it now.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

That's what it is: what the other numbers nearby are like, and YYZ's pitiful number in comparison. Not in terms of average. In terms of average, it's been fine, much better than the last couple of winters I would say; however, when everyone around you is getting quite an epic start, it's tough. Albeit Chicago had a slow start again, they are sure making up for it now.

 

Fair enough. GRB has had 0.2" since December 26th per Josh's numbers, so it could be a lot worse. Although they're going to get healthy tonight/tomorrow and we're still waiting.

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

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lol, I'm in the "tundra" right now although it hardly feels like it. Mid 50s by Saturday! The ugly side of the +PNA ridge (although, frankly, I won't be complaining. It'll feel nice). 

You should tease the people in Edmonton when it gets warm later this week. They love to make it sound like they're constantly 40 below while Toronto is in the banana belt.

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Toronto4

Toronto4

Posted
Posted

What happened to the MLK Day cold shot? Checking both Environment Canada and The Weather Network, both of them have Toronto in the upper 20s/low 30s for that time frame! No sign of the cold shot that the Euro was calling for, for that time period, at least for my region!

The 00z Euro is now showing the cold shot to occur around Jan 22-24. And Don S in the main thread noted that all long range guidance is hinting at a severe cold shot in the last week of January (27-30).

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

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The 00z Euro is now showing the cold shot to occur around Jan 22-24. And Don S in the main thread noted that all long range guidance is hinting at a severe cold shot in the last week of January (27-30).

Thanks. Do you think our mean temperature this January can tie or surpass 2009? It depends on how cold it gets after the 20th, I guess.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

Thanks. Do you think our mean temperature this January can tie or surpass 2009? It depends on how cold it gets after the 20th, I guess.

No point in determining temperature anomalies for a cold shot thats 2 weeks out lol. If it were to occur however, we would need to lay down a nice snowcover (>6") if we want to mirror this past cold shot.

What may happen IMO 2-3 weeks from now is a potential SSW, which would result in a -AO/-NAO anomaly as we head into February. This would yield better storm development, and even moreso if the STJ flexed its muscles. Lets see!

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

January 14 CPC day 8+ super GEFS analog dates, from top analog to bottom....around the date and rolled forward through the end of February for Indianapolis. For each date, all 1.0"+ snowfall events through the end of met winter. Obviously, the roll forward method past a week or so is shaky at best...but just to give an idea if the pattern would persist from the analog date, onward. Top 6 analogs have produced at least one 6"+ event...with Jan-Feb 1965 having two 10"+ events, FWIW.

 

January 16, 2009

Jan 13-14: 2.0"

Jan 26-28: 12.5"

Feb 2-3: 3.9"

Feb 21-22: 1.2"

 

January 16, 1965

Jan 14-16: 11.5"

Feb 1: 1.6"

Feb 21: 1.2"

Feb 24-25: 12.5"

 

January 7, 2003

Jan 16: 2.0"

Jan 18: 1.0"

Jan 26: 2.8"

Jan 31: 2.0"

Feb 6-7: 1.2"

Feb 10-11: 5.8"

Feb 14-15: 2.2"

Feb 16-17: 2.7"

Feb: 22-23: 6.6"

Feb 24: 2.7"

 

January 19, 1961

Jan 19-20: 1.1"

Jan 26: 2.0"

Feb 2-3: 2.9"

Feb 7-8: 1.0"

Feb 25: 6.6"

Feb 28: 3.8

 

January 5, 1981

Jan 6: 3.0"

Feb 10-11: 6.1" (mix)

 

January 26, 2007

Feb 6: 5.2"

Feb 12-14: 8.5" (mix)

Feb 17: 3.7"

 

February 5, 1995

Feb 3-4: 2.0"

Feb 7: 1.6"

 

January 5, 1985

Jan 9-10: 2.7"

Jan 16-17: 1.0"

Jan 18: 1.7"

Jan 24-25: 1.9"

Jan 30-31: 1.9"

Feb 2: 1.1"

Feb 5: 1.3"

Feb 10-12: 8.1" (mix)

 

February 7, 1954

Feb 25-26: 1.1"

 

January 21, 2005

Jan 20: 1.2"

Jan 22: 1.1"

Jan 29: 1.6"

Feb 24: 1.5"

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Toronto4

Toronto4

Posted
Posted

Thanks. Do you think our mean temperature this January can tie or surpass 2009? It depends on how cold it gets after the 20th, I guess.

Depending on the magnitude of the cold snap after the 20th, this January may or may not surpass 2009. But there's a great chance that this month will finish below normal, despite the current thaw.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

I'm digging it. :)

 

 

 

The latest EPO forecast shows the EPO reaching approximately 200 meters below normal toward the end of January. During the 1981-10 climate base period, there were 3 cases in which the EPO fell to 200 or more meters below normal in the January 20-31 period during which January had temperature anomalies similar to what has occurred so far this month: 1994, 2003, and 2010.

 

All featured a lot of cold in February in a large part of eastern North America. Two of those three cases (1994 and 2010) featured above to much above February snowfall from Chicago eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas (a larger part of the Mid-Atlantic saw above normal snowfall in 2003 and 2010 then 1994). In short, the latest guidance concerning the EPO adds to my growing confidence that areas (Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, northern Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England) could see above normal snowfall during the January 25-February 15 period.

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daddylonglegs

daddylonglegs

Posted
Posted

From NWS Miami:

 

SO

LOCALLY, ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED IN

ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FRONT. HIGHS IN THE 80S MOST LOCALES TODAY

MAY BE THE LAST 80S WE SEE THROUGH MONTH`S END (PER LONG RANGE

GFS).

 

Definite pattern change for some folks... actually doesn't look too bad around these parts.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Consistent NW flow. Pretty weak.

 

Initially, yes. But watch from day 8 or so and onward, as the EPO ridge retrogrades and the PNA flattens. I think it'll get more active for some.

 

From NWS Miami:

 

SO

LOCALLY, ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED IN

ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FRONT. HIGHS IN THE 80S MOST LOCALES TODAY

MAY BE THE LAST 80S WE SEE THROUGH MONTH`S END (PER LONG RANGE

GFS).

 

Definite pattern change for some folks... actually doesn't look too bad around these parts.

 

If things break right, or go as indicated on the ensembles, it gonna get cold in WI past day 10.  

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

Posted
Posted

Initially, yes. But watch from day 8 or so and onward, as the EPO ridge retrogrades and the PNA flattens. I think it'll get more active for some.

 

 

If things break right, or go as indicated on the ensembles, it gonna get cold in WI past day 10.  

 

If it gets cold and dry at that point, kittens better watch out lol (not really).

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