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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Some thought that in 08-09... Then in 10-11 it was gonna be a cool one which did not work out to well either.

 

A bit of it depends on enso i think. We go to a nino i suspect it will be cooler and if we go deeper into a nina then it will be a warmer one. We'll see anyways.

 

hearing rumors of an el nino...possibly mod to strong going into next fall.   If it's strong we could have a torchy winter...or...it could be another 09-'10 which rocked here, but I know wasn't a fav winter for you guys.    Either way, it seems trying to forecast winter based on enso, and all the other favorite indices hasn't been working out too well lately.  

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hearing rumors of an el nino...possibly mod to strong going into next fall.   If it's strong we could have a torchy winter...or...it could be another 09-'10 which rocked here, but I know wasn't a fav winter for you guys.    Either way, it seems trying to forecast winter based on enso, and all the other favorite indices hasn't been working out too well lately.  

 

Ha.. I did not mind 09-10.. Had 2 events which totaled a foot ( Dec via lake enhancement and the one that nailed DC/Philly in Feb ) and in the end the seasonal was around 73.1" here. Dec was ok, Jan meh and Feb rocked big time here with 38.6" and thus the Feb snowfall record. Hard to complaint about that.

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Ha.. I did not mind 09-10.. Had 2 events which totaled a foot ( Dec via lake enhancement and the one that nailed DC/Philly in Feb ) and in the end the seasonal was around 73.1" here. Dec was ok, Jan meh and Feb rocked big time here with 38.6" and thus the Feb snowfall record. Hard to complaint about that.

 

oops.....why was I thinking I heard grumbling about that winter from some here?   Maybe further nw?

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oops.....why was I thinking I heard grumbling about that winter from some here?   Maybe further nw?

 

See below..

 

09-10 was awful in Toronto. Least snowiest winter on record going back to the 19th century, I believe. Thankfully I was in Ottawa that winter although it was below average snow up there as well.

 

 

Yeah you guys got shafted big time that winter.

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See below..

 

 

 

Yeah you guys got shafted big time that winter.

Most frustrating winter ever. London, Paris, Berlin and Amsterdam over in Europe, along with Chicago, DC, Philly and NYC got hammered that winter while we had the least snowiest winter ever recorded! All thanks to a strongly negative AO which torched Labrador.

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hearing rumors of an el nino...possibly mod to strong going into next fall.   If it's strong we could have a torchy winter...or...it could be another 09-'10 which rocked here, but I know wasn't a fav winter for you guys.    Either way, it seems trying to forecast winter based on enso, and all the other favorite indices hasn't been working out too well lately.  

 

I'd go weak El-Nino as a guess. Nearly all guidance supports an El-Nino of some kind though. 

 

JAMSTEC has an El-Nino look for Sept-Nov and still has that warm pool in the NE Pacific. 

 

ssta.glob.SON2014.1jan2014.gif

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When was the last time some of the cities in the subforum dipped below zero in March? Particularly the further southeast portions. I imagine it's fairly common in northern WI and into MN.

 

March 9, 1984 for LAF (-3º). Pretty rare occurrence.

 

For Indianapolis, same date with a temp of -1º.

 

And here's the number of times it's happened at IND in March, since 1943...when the airport became the official site.

 

March 1943: 3 days

March 1948: 1 day

March 1960: 2 days

March 1963: 1 day

March 1978: 1 day

March 1980: 1 day

March 1984: 1 day

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March 9, 1984 for LAF (-3º). Pretty rare occurrence.

For Indianapolis, same date with a temp of -1º.

And here's the number of times it's happened at IND in March, since 1943...when the airport became the official site.

March 1943: 3 days

March 1948: 1 day

March 1960: 2 days

March 1963: 1 day

March 1978: 1 day

March 1980: 1 day

March 1984: 1 day

Wow, I figured it was pretty rare around the subforum, didn't know it had been that long. I know I can't recall any time it did so here in my life off the top of my head.

It's funny because going by IND's records, it actually seemed semi-regular prior to 1984.

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Wow, I figured it was pretty rare around the subforum, didn't know it had been that long. I know I can't recall any time it did so here in my life off the top of my head.

It's funny because going by IND's records, it actually seemed semi-regular prior to 1984.

This is every subzero reading in March at Detroit since 1874, going by year chronologically. Only 8 days (6 different years) have gone below zero in March!

 

March 03, 2003: -4F

March 02, 1980: -1F

March 02, 1978: -4F

March 08, 1943: -1F

March 03, 1943: -1F

March 17, 1900: -2F

March 21, 1885: -1F

March 20, 1885: -2F

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This is every subzero reading in March at Detroit since 1874, going by year chronologically. Only 8 days (6 different years) have gone below zero in March!

 

March 03, 2003: -4F

March 02, 1980: -1F

March 02, 1978: -4F

March 08, 1943: -1F

March 03, 1943: -1F

March 17, 1900: -2F

March 21, 1885: -1F

March 20, 1885: -2F

Thanks...I had forgotten about 2003. Still really rare around here.

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Wow, I figured it was pretty rare around the subforum, didn't know it had been that long. I know I can't recall any time it did so here in my life off the top of my head.

It's funny because going by IND's records, it actually seemed semi-regular prior to 1984.

 

I should've added, that prior to 1943, there were 0 sub-zero temps for Indy in March. And records go back to 1871.

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When was the last time some of the cities in the subforum dipped below zero in March? Particularly the further southeast portions. I imagine it's fairly common in northern WI and into MN.

 

Here are MKE's if you care.

 

03/01/1962    -10
03/01/1960    -9
03/01/1963    -1
03/02/1913    -6
03/02/1890    -5
03/02/1943    -5
03/02/1925    -4
03/02/1950    -4
03/03/1943    -6
03/03/1873    -1
03/04/1884    -8
03/04/2002    -6
03/04/1873    -3
03/05/1890    -7
03/06/1960    -7
03/06/1890    -2
03/06/1932    -2
03/07/1920    -2
03/07/1932    -2
03/07/1955    -1
03/08/1960    -6
03/08/1943    -5
03/08/1982    -4
03/10/1877    -3
03/12/1948    -3
03/12/1896    -2
03/17/1941    -7
03/17/1885    -3
03/19/1923    -3
03/20/1885    -4
03/21/1885    -2
03/22/1888    -2
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pattern looks ripe to make the northern part of the sub-forum add a good amount of snow to the already deep pack.. poor deer again this spring and the cold has been much worse than last winter and that actually hurts them more..  Winter Severity Index is already above severe in some area for the wildlife and no end in sight.

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Here are MKE's if you care.

 

03/01/1962    -10
03/01/1960    -9
03/01/1963    -1
03/02/1913    -6
03/02/1890    -5
03/02/1943    -5
03/02/1925    -4
03/02/1950    -4
03/03/1943    -6
03/03/1873    -1
03/04/1884    -8
03/04/2002    -6
03/04/1873    -3
03/05/1890    -7
03/06/1960    -7
03/06/1890    -2
03/06/1932    -2
03/07/1920    -2
03/07/1932    -2
03/07/1955    -1
03/08/1960    -6
03/08/1943    -5
03/08/1982    -4
03/10/1877    -3
03/12/1948    -3
03/12/1896    -2
03/17/1941    -7
03/17/1885    -3
03/19/1923    -3
03/20/1885    -4
03/21/1885    -2
03/22/1888    -2

 

 

I was too lazy to do all of that..

 

Detroit is kinda on it's own island with this. Lansing has seen sub zero lows as late as April 7th ( 2 days in April has been below zero )  and latest 0 reading on April 17th.. Coldest March temp is -25 below zero..

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This is every subzero reading in March at Detroit since 1874, going by year chronologically. Only 8 days (6 different years) have gone below zero in March!

 

March 03, 2003: -4F

March 02, 1980: -1F

March 02, 1978: -4F

March 08, 1943: -1F

March 03, 1943: -1F

March 17, 1900: -2F

March 21, 1885: -1F

March 20, 1885: -2F

 

Perhaps another record can be broken this winter with 2 back to back dates..... Every day this winter is a overachiever !!!

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This is every subzero reading in March at Detroit since 1874, going by year chronologically. Only 8 days (6 different years) have gone below zero in March!

 

March 03, 2003: -4F

March 02, 1980: -1F

March 02, 1978: -4F

March 08, 1943: -1F

March 03, 1943: -1F

March 17, 1900: -2F

March 21, 1885: -1F

March 20, 1885: -2F

 

Perhaps another record can be broken this winter with 2 back to back dates..... Every day this winter is a overachiever !!!

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