Stebo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Modern day modeling persistantly has problems with trough placement in the 120-168hr timeframe. Why would the stj be so far southeast is lol worthy. Makes no sense looking at the upper level pattern. Makes the run useless and a waste of money. What? Wanna explain this better or it just some more angrysummons hand waving and wishcasting? Yeah I disagree, as modeled the subtropical jet is in the correct location, the problem is there are too many vorts coming out ahead of it without giving the main system enough time dig and amplify the pattern. The question is whether or not the pattern will be essentially too active to allow any sort of amplification or it if will remain quasi-zonal until the EPO falls off the cliff again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I really wish tropical was here this winter. It would have been hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I really wish tropical was here this winter. It would have been hilarious. I talk to him on yahoo... he's fine actually.. he just fails at trolling with all us against him. up to 78 degrees in his greenhouse today and 75 in the tropical basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Honestly, I'm close to siding with michsnowfreak now. The deep snow has been on the ground for so long now. So what the hell, we might as well go for broke it at this point, if for no other reason but to continue smashing those snow depth/cover records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Modern day modeling persistantly has problems with trough placement in the 120-168hr timeframe. Why would the stj be so far southeast is lol worthy. Makes no sense looking at the upper level pattern. Makes the run useless and a waste of money. classic ridging bias. why those ops think that trough is going to almost move dead east is lol worthy. either backbuild or get lost. Please keep pulling this nonsense out of thin air, it's not like we have been looking at this for one model cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 6z GFS a little different for late next week/next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 6z GFS a little different for late next week/next weekend. I see no warmup at all on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I am hoping for the temps to moderate and tease us with a slight warm up. This way the flooding potential is held at bay and we can continue this glorious weather. Even at 15-19 °F in the full sun is absolutely gorgeous. This winter 20 is the new 40 WRT normal temps. I say lets have the 7th inning stretch and get back to winter, were nearing the end of an epic game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Snapshot of the storm on Day 5. euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 a naso surprising torch fail....habits break hard these past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Snapshot of the storm on Day 5. euro. EUROcutter_022014.png A heavy/cold rain, awful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 a naso surprising torch fail....habits break hard these past few years. EURO still showing above freezing for you from 6pm Tuesday to late Saturday. Still showing 60° area wide for Thursday with dewpoints pushing 55°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 6z GFS a little different for late next week/next weekend. No kidding. Looks like snow, maybe even ice to start as the system moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I am hoping for the temps to moderate and tease us with a slight warm up. This way the flooding potential is held at bay and we can continue this glorious weather. Even at 15-19 °F in the full sun is absolutely gorgeous. This winter 20 is the new 40 WRT normal temps. I say lets have the 7th inning stretch and get back to winter, were nearing the end of an epic game. It is what is needed to avoid catastrophe. The depth and water content of snow on the FROZEN ground (little runoff) and depth of the ice on lakes would not sit well with a sudden torch of 55-60F for several days (as some earlier models had hinted at). A slow melt is what is best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Low 40s for highs with lows in the upper 20s for an extended period would be great for reducing the flooding threat. If the EURO is right, then that's not what is in store exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Low 40s for highs with lows in the upper 20s for an extended period would be great for reducing the flooding threat. If the EURO is right, then that's not what is in store exactly. True but even the Euro only has the one very warm day and that is because of the storm. None of the other models have even 40F for an extended time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 No kidding. Looks like snow, maybe even ice to start as the system moves in. Maybe winter doesn't end on the 19th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm up in the UP right now, just checked models on my cell. Warm up cancel. Detroit might not crack 38 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAEFS is nasty nasty cold the last week of Feb/early March.. . targeted for Detroit into the Ohio Valley... Good stuff. Spring fail ... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014021500_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png 3 days running now. Lock it in boys. We need a few more subzero high temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nice naefs dll! After days of advertising a few days of 2m temps in the 50s to possibly 60F, both the GFS and GEM now have DTW not seeing 40F! Euro is the last holdout.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The full moon seldom lies......... Very difficult to have a pattern change of large magnitude when not in phase of the moon. (Full or New) Warmth might be brought north with a storm but a full out shift to spring IMO is not likely. Then again this winter is far from normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The full moon seldom lies......... Very difficult to have a pattern change of large magnitude when not in phase of the moon. (Full or New) Warmth might be brought north with a storm but a full out shift to spring IMO is not likely. Then again this winter is far from normal. That's not the only thing that's far from normal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The full moon seldom lies......... Very difficult to have a pattern change of large magnitude when not in phase of the moon. (Full or New) Warmth might be brought north with a storm but a full out shift to spring IMO is not likely. Then again this winter is far from normal. Channeling your inner Roger Smith? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Channeling your inner Roger Smith? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That's not the only thing that's far from normal... Channeling your inner Roger Smith? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Maybe winter doesn't end on the 19th Here's hoping. Need to make our seasonal snowfall and also beat February 1994 and 2007 temperature-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Torch and severe weather outbreak cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Torch and severe weather outbreak cancel? Yeah, the 12z Euro pretty much caved to the flat GFS for the Thursday system. Can kiss 50 degrees goodbye for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Torch and severe weather outbreak cancel? For DTW, the once torchy Euro now has 0.07" qpf tomorrow morning, 0.54" with Mondays snow...briefly touches 41F (as opposed to the 65F it showed two days ago) as some rain ending as snow Thursday...then another snow event Saturday with 0.44" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Looks like the 12z Euro gets temps into the mid/upper 40s here with dewpoints at similar levels. We'd still lose a lot of snow in that scenario so I'd probably just rather have an all-out torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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