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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Yeah, we haven't had a vigorous clipper in a long time as far as I can remember. I think the last decent one was back in December 08 that dropped 3-4" in the area.

The clippers may look intriguing right now, but once we get closer, its like they become a dried up orange. Not very juicy! Haha.

 

Here's a tough one. Can you think of a clipper that dropped warning criteria snowfall on us? I know we were under a warning for the January 2005 superclipper but it didn't verify downtown or at Pearson.

 

I don't think there's been one in the last 15 years. At least.

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Seems to me that the pattern is shifting to clippers/northern stream impulses that will mostly favor I-80 and north. If I had to choose the best places to be for this next phase, it'd be MI and ON. Don't know if there's gonna be any "super clippers", but I think those areas will cash for the next 10-14 days. Farther south here in the tropics, just table scraps...up and down temps, minor snowfalls...unless the southern stream can get involved, but that looks dubious. Next window of opportunity for us is probably end of the month/beginning of Feb...when/if the EPO/western ridging retrogrades. Just my two cents...

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Seems to me that the pattern is shifting to clippers/northern stream impulses that will mostly favor I-80 and north. If I had to choose the best places to be for this next phase, it'd be MI and ON. Don't know if there's gonna be any "super clippers", but I think those areas will cash for the next 10-14 days. Farther south here in the tropics, just table scraps...up and down temps, minor snowfalls...unless the southern stream can get involved, but that looks dubious. Next window of opportunity for us is probably end of the month/beginning of Feb...when/if the EPO/western ridging retrogrades. Just my two cents...

 

 

Making calls 3 weeks out...Chad's rubbing off on you.  :P

 

I think we're close enough to keep an eye on the clipper action.  Wouldn't take much of a southward shift to bring better snows.

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Here's a tough one. Can you think of a clipper that dropped warning criteria snowfall on us? I know we were under a warning for the January 2005 superclipper but it didn't verify downtown or at Pearson.

 

I don't think there's been one in the last 15 years. At least.

Wasn't the February 8th storm last winter an amped up clipper? JB jokingly referred to it as the "clipper on 'roids" storm.

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Making calls 3 weeks out...Chad's rubbing off on you.  :P

 

I think we're close enough to keep an eye on the clipper action.  Wouldn't take much of a southward shift to bring better snows.

 

I like my chances of verifying better than the results of his last call. ;)

 

But yeah, we're close enough to get a few tastes. And I did put a caveat in there if we see some southern stream involvement, we could do better. Lots of ifs ands and buts I guess. I still like to the north of here to bear "the brunt" over the next 10-14 days though. Thereafter, if everything goes to plan, we starting hunting again. 

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A good Saturday summary video today from Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell.  Note that the video is from the free site and can therefore be posted on here.

 

In the video he lays out where he thinks this pattern is going and why. He also lays into the people who have been saying that the latest cold outbreak was caused by global warming. Overall, a very informative video with next to no hype. He seems to be hinting that while this week won't be quite so cold due to the lack of cross polar flow, serious cold may return by the last week of January/beginning of February.

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-january-11-2014

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Wasn't the February 8th storm last winter an amped up clipper? JB jokingly referred to it as the "clipper on 'roids" storm.

 

That was hybridized with the southern stream by the time it got to us. And even before, when it was purely northern stream, I don't think every northern stream system automatically qualifies as a clipper. B_I (is he even on this board anymore?) used to say that low amplitude of the H5 s/w was a key to qualifying a system as a clipper. Feb 8th, even before hybridization, was fairly amplified.  

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12z op Euro tries to bring down the motherlode in the day 8-9 timeframe.  Would be focused a bit farther east than the last arctic outbreak though.

Yes, the Euro looks really cold for my region around the 20th. I hope it's right. While awful with storms, it seems to have done fairly well with temperature forecasts. It certainly called the January 6-7th cold shot in advance.

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I see potential creeping up in the next 7 to 10 days...jet needs to clean itself up in eastern asia/western Pac....also seeing the split in the western pac gives me the "meh" feeling for now....but it should regain it's "oomph" soon...just a little hungover, fat, and lazy from the holidays laugh.gif ... Watching to see if some aggressive eastern Asian clipper-type systems can smooth out/reinforce that jet as it enters the pac...

 

attachicon.gif14010906_jetstream_norhem.gif

 

 

Definitely improving now...looking much cleaner in the western Pac....batteries getting recharged...

 

post-5865-0-61466200-1389538897_thumb.gi

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Looks like the northern Lakes/midwest to cash in a bit the coming week...and it would certainly seem likely when you look at the upside down snowfall totals so far this January. Just hoping we can get some action in the southern Lakes too. I am on vacation Jan 18-27 & it would be a shame if nothing good comes weather-wise seeing as though I had to work when we had a 8.4", 11.6", and 10.3" snowstorm this winter. #greedy.

 

January 2014 snowfall thru 1/11

Green Bay, WI........T

St Cloud, MN........0.1"

Fargo, ND............0.3"

Minneapolis, MN...0.3"

La Crosse, WI......0.9"

Duluth, MN...........1.4"

Alpena, MI............4.1"

S. S. Marie, MN....8.7"

Marquette, MI.......9.2"

 

****************

St Louis, MO......14.9"

Lansing, MI.........15.5"

Grd Rapids, MI...16.1"

Fort Wayne, IN...17.5"

Indianapolis, IN...18.2"

Chicago, IL.........19.9"

Flint, MI...............20.4"
Detroit, MI...........22.5"

Toledo, OH.........24.4"

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I think this winter will be more about the cold than the snow for the Toronto area. It will be interesting to see if each of the three winter months (DJF) will finish below normal, temperature wise.

Looking ahead, it looks like we'll nickel and dime in the snowfall department. Hopefully one of these clipper disturbances will blow up and give a decent snowfall. Pattern is looking similar to that of January 2003 (ridge/warm temps out west and cold conditions over the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast).

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Looks like the northern Lakes/midwest to cash in a bit the coming week...and it would certainly seem likely when you look at the upside down snowfall totals so far this January. Just hoping we can get some action in the southern Lakes too. I am on vacation Jan 18-27 & it would be a shame if nothing good comes weather-wise seeing as though I had to work when we had a 8.4", 11.6", and 10.3" snowstorm this winter. #greedy.

 

January 2014 snowfall thru 1/11

Green Bay, WI........T

St Cloud, MN........0.1"

Fargo, ND............0.3"

Minneapolis, MN...0.3"

La Crosse, WI......0.9"

Duluth, MN...........1.4"

Alpena, MI............4.1"

S. S. Marie, MN....8.7"

Marquette, MI.......9.2"

 

****************

St Louis, MO......14.9"

Lansing, MI.........15.5"

Grd Rapids, MI...16.1"

Fort Wayne, IN...17.5"

Indianapolis, IN...18.2"

Chicago, IL.........19.9"

Flint, MI...............20.4"

Detroit, MI...........22.5"

Toledo, OH.........24.4"

It is mind boggling that Toledo is in the lead

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