Hoosier Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Incredible windfields with that as the surface low bombs to 975 mb @ 168 hrs, H7 was showing winds of 70-90 kts at 18z, intensifying to 100 kts at 168, LLJ in excess of 70 kts, H5 well over 100 kts. It's not like instability is non-existent either, especially when you consider the cold mid level temps this thing would likely spread over at least part of the warm sector. That's one of the keys to this setup (well, many setups really). Been checking this on the GFS and mid level lapse rates at least look respectable in the warm sector. Also, with questions on how the melting snow would affect boundary layer temps, a setup that doesn't need a ton of surface heating could make that issue less significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 That's one of the keys to this setup (well, many setups really). Been checking this on the GFS and mid level lapse rates at least look respectable in the warm sector. Also, with questions on how the melting snow would affect boundary layer temps, a setup that doesn't need a ton of surface heating could make that issue less significant. Euro was showing around 500-700 J/kg in MI with temps/dews in the mid to upper 50s. It won't take much at all to get things going if that is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro was showing around 500-700 J/kg in MI with temps/dews in the mid to upper 50s. It won't take much at all to get things going if that is the case. Euro must have pretty good lapse rates then? You wouldn't get that kind of instability with those temps/dewpoints if there wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro must have pretty good lapse rates then? You wouldn't get that kind of instability with those temps/dewpoints if there wasn't. WxBell doesn't have 700 or 500mb temps but just looking at the thickness plots, I would venture to guess the lapse rates are really good actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 With late next week either the GFS is gonna be terribly wrong or the euro? Perhaps both? Yes both models have decent systems but the timing is quite a bit off between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The latest euro weeklies has gone even colder ( late Feb into March ) and thus well below normal temps for weeks, 2, 3 and 4. 500mb maps show the -EPO returning in full force. For week 1 and thus the 17th through the 24th they show well above normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 2 hours ago. No ice storm risk, just the threat for some -ZR to start before we warm up. Even if there was an more a long period of icing the temps it will warm up right after the precip stops unlike the pre-Christmas storm that hung around for several days before any real warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'll take the 0Z GEM run ... ... well compared to the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 With late next week either the GFS is gonna be terribly wrong or the euro? Perhaps both? Yes both models have decent systems but the timing is quite a bit off between the two. As have the CFS weeklies. It makes the torch even MORE painful. Mind you, I have not gone crazy and am mad it looks to get cold again . I am just mad that it looks like it will be a worthless short-lived torch that could cause a flooding disaster. Hopefully it can be tempered somewhat and the temps above 50F very short lived so we can curb extreme flooding and maybe save some snowpack. If it verifies, some pattern change, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 CFS back to mild for parts of March. Warm 1st-11th area wide. Cool west Lakes, warmer east for the 8-16th Warm north, cool south for the 13-18th. Then up and down the remaining part of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Wow... Now back to the models... NAEFS is horrible. Cold looks a little more east, but the California death ridge is back: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014021412_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Wow... Now back to the models... NAEFS is horrible. Cold looks a little more east, but the California death ridge is back: Well with such a strong system(s) forecast for next week, it only makes sense that it will be cold in this region immediately afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well with such a strong system(s) forecast for next week, it only makes sense that it will be cold in this region immediately afterwards. Only good thing is that averages continue to climb so below normal will still feel better then subzero high temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Still not much EURO ensemble support for a deep secondary storm around 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Seems to be pretty strong signals of a cold down for at least the last week of February with the return of -EPO. Nothing new here. One thing I've noticed the last several runs of the GFS is that there's also a +PNA signal showing up. So while we may return to the icebox, it could very well be accompanied by a garbage NW flow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GFS has an interesting cutter low coming out for next weekend. Keeps the southerly flow going through 192 hours. Northern MN on eastward get rocked with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 00z GFS has a pocket of -30C 850 mb temps tickling Lake Superior as the calendar turns to March. You gotta be kidding me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 00z GFS has a pocket of -30C 850 mb temps tickling Lake Superior as the calendar turns to March. You gotta be kidding me.nice pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 00z GFS has a pocket of -30C 850 mb temps tickling Lake Superior as the calendar turns to March. You gotta be kidding me. This winter is going to cause people who loved winter to hate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 The torch isn't looking so torchy anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 This winter is going to cause people who loved winter to hate it. Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The torch isn't looking so torchy anymore. Yeah especially north of the OH River. Although previous runs were warmer with the GFS, this run nothing dug into the Southwest and everything stayed northern steam dominant. In that sense it is handling next week completely different than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This winter is going to cause people who loved winter to hate it. Seems like that's already the case. I'm fine with snow chances continuing into March since we're adding on to an all-time record but I'd rather not see any more really cold stuff. Trying to maintain snowcover here is a losing battle by then so it can be 70 degrees in between the snow chances for all I care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Seems like that's already the case. I'm fine with snow chances continuing into March since we're adding on to an all-time record but I'd rather not see any more really cold stuff. Trying to maintain snowcover here is a losing battle by then so it can be 70 degrees in between the snow chances for all I care. Mid March is my cut off, sure I can deal with April snow because I know it has no staying power, but this below zero stuff is getting old. Not to mention that it hasn't been above freezing here but 2 days out of the last 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Geos. Lol, books will be written on that downfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 00z GFS has a pocket of -30C 850 mb temps tickling Lake Superior as the calendar turns to March. You gotta be kidding me. Is that even possible at that late date?! Geos. I'll be wishing for a well above normal April, that's for sure! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Is that even possible at that late date?! I'll be wishing for a well above normal April, that's for sure! haha Yes it is. I took a look at the lowest 850 mb temps on record at GRB for March and the record is -29.4C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 classic ridging bias. why those ops think that trough is going to almost move dead east is lol worthy. either backbuild or get lost. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 classic ridging bias. why those ops think that trough is going to almost move dead east is lol worthy. either backbuild or get lost. What? Wanna explain this better or it just some more angrysummons hand waving and wishcasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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