daddylonglegs Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAEFS says screw you, repeat pattern coming back...death spiral.. spring fever? not happening ... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014021300_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAEFS says screw you, repeat pattern coming back...death spiral.. spring fever? not happening ... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014021300_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png Having it look like that into the GoA is just getting old. I wonder how long the -EPO can keep hold heading into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That's OK, very soon this 'cold' will be 20s, which is very manageable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAEFS says screw you, repeat pattern coming back...death spiral.. spring fever? not happening ... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014021300_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That's OK, very soon this 'cold' will be 20s, which is very manageable. Its gonna come to an end, I will personally move into the Pro-Warmth camp after March 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah...it means more manageable cold, but i could really go for a streak of some mild temps just to start cleaning (garage, cars, etc)...this snow around here has been sitting on the ground since early December...it gets ghetto after that much time... I just wonder if this should happen (a return to below norm temps again), does it continue through spring??? If we have a spring like 2013 i might end up in an institution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAEFS says screw you, repeat pattern coming back...death spiral.. spring fever? not happening ... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014021300_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png Haha, classic cooler near the lake setup on that map! Yeah I would love a snow free yard for like a weekend, so I can start cleaning things up. EURO big on convective rains next Thursday. I've seen snow packs wiped out overnight by convection before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah...it means more manageable cold, but i could really go for a streak of some mild temps just to start cleaning (garage, cars, etc)...this snow around here has been sitting on the ground since early December...it gets ghetto after that much time... I just wonder if this should happen (a return to below norm temps again), does it continue through spring??? If we have a spring like 2013 i might end up in an institution. I wouldn't be upset if we torched for a few days, cleaned up the pavement and then got a small dump to cover up the rubbish snow piles that will follow the torch. I really would like to hose out my garage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 lol, you never know on this forum anymore. But I was 99% sure you were still all in on wanting more wintry opportunities. And yep, signal is for more cold after this mild up next week. Hopefully that happens, because we're oh so close to breaking 60" here...and need some more chances. I see the latest CFS has gone cold for March (not that I trust it as far as I can throw it). Nevertheless though, that's taboo around here...so we'll keep that between me and you. Cfs has been Ellbent on a cold march except for a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAEFS says screw you, repeat pattern coming back...death spiral.. spring fever? not happening ... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014021300_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png Near normal for most of the region, and slightly below normal for North of I-80. I'd take that in a heartbeat considering by that point normal here is around 37 for a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSNW3 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Not so fast. Everything is a hope and prayer at days 9-10, but 0z Euro ensemble mean has a little better look to me...if you're pulling for such a thing. Far from perfect of course, and most likely "warm"/wet here, but... http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=240&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=72530&PERIOD= You can utilize the recurring Rossby Wave Train and ISO as well for long range ideas. Example... @Mattygizme RT'd this https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/434036623617974273 (see tweet for the date that is ref'd in image) I then tweeted @Mattygizme this https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/434040195797639168 "@Mattygizme short-term ISO is ~21 days. Go back ~62 days (3rd harmonic) & see DEC21 - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/131221_rpts.html then (see next tweet)" "@Mattygizme on DEC21 the short-term ISO was ~17 days. Go back ~51 days (3rd harmonic) & see OCT31 - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/131031_rpts.html - BAM #ISO" This may be the most perfect year to define how the ISO translates to the mid latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If we can't get one more 6"+ might as well torch it's been a cold winter for all of us anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like the 23rd will be the last day of warmth for a while... Hope this all drops south a bit to scoot that warm sector down... No interest in severe weather yet. Seconded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Which faucet do we turn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Warmest the EURO gets next week. 180 hours Latest CFS showing the coldest departures staying along the US/Canada border. Below normal from about February 25th-March 22nd across the region as a whole. Coldest 10th-15th period, with departures pushing -6°C in the far NW by Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Don't think it'll be a huge deal but there are some subtle icing signals showing up with the D8 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 18z GFS still holding serve for flooding and possible svr prospects for Thursday/Friday of next week. Wagons west into WI with 110-130 knot 500 mb jet. Something will be cooking for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Tim would enjoy the 360-384 hour 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Tim would enjoy the 360-384 hour 18z GFS. Looks like we ride the line. But hey, if something like that would be all or majority snow...what a way to punctuate this winter for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If this trend is any indication of the wide variability in temps and intense storms with heavy precip as we move into March we have quite a rollercoaster coming our way. Hang on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSNW3 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If this trend is any indication of the wide variability in temps and intense storms with heavy precip as we move into March we have quite a rollercoaster coming our way. Hang on! I see a bit of a roller coaster. Charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSNW3 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Latest CFS showing the coldest departures staying along the US/Canada border. Below normal from about February 25th-March 22nd across the region as a whole. Coldest 10th-15th period, with departures pushing -6°C in the far NW by Superior. A long range technique based on ISO and the recurring Rossby Wave Train shows the warm-up next weekend (1) and a typical March to come (2) for WI and it's borders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Don't think it'll be a huge deal but there are some subtle icing signals showing up with the D8 storm. Can you seriously imagine what would happen if we got another ice storm? This city would freak out, perhaps justifiably. Won't happen though. When do you fly in from Edmonton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Can you seriously imagine what would happen if we got another ice storm? This city would freak out, perhaps justifiably. Won't happen though. When do you fly in from Edmonton? Last time he came, he was just in time for the ice storm, lmao. I'd laugh if the same thing happens again. How Ironic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Another run of the GFS with a powerful system developing in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Another run of the GFS with a powerful system developing in about a week. And another "oh man" run from the 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 70 mph 850 mb wind in IL/WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Can you seriously imagine what would happen if we got another ice storm? This city would freak out, perhaps justifiably. Won't happen though. When do you fly in from Edmonton? 2 hours ago. No ice storm risk, just the threat for some -ZR to start before we warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 And another "oh man" run from the 00z Euro. Incredible windfields with that as the surface low bombs to 975 mb @ 168 hrs, H7 was showing winds of 70-90 kts at 18z, intensifying to 100 kts at 168, LLJ in excess of 70 kts, H5 well over 100 kts. It's not like instability is non-existent either, especially when you consider the cold mid level temps this thing would likely spread over at least part of the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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