A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 0z euro looks great, legit open the windows and let the funk out weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Not just this winter, but over the past several winters. They've only existed in the fantasy range (like this one now) only to disappear as the time frame approaches to one reason or another. The last legit secondary low I believe we had was February 2008. As far as legit threats within a reasonable range, again your guess is as good as mine. I guess depending on your definition of a secondary low, that narrow band of anafrontal snows down in the OV back in December could count. Looks like the trough may be too amplified to support a cold secondary low. EURO and GFS both have it warm and wet. Never shall I doubt the wisdom of the powerball again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like the trough may be too amplified to support a cold secondary low. EURO and GFS both have it warm and wet. Never shall I doubt the wisdom of the powerball again. Not so fast. Everything is a hope and prayer at days 9-10, but 0z Euro ensemble mean has a little better look to me...if you're pulling for such a thing. Far from perfect of course, and most likely "warm"/wet here, but... http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=240&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=72530&PERIOD= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Not so fast. Everything is a hope and prayer at days 9-10, but 0z Euro ensemble mean has a little better look to me...if you're pulling for such a thing. Far from perfect of course... http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=240&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=72530&PERIOD= Do you even have to ask? A few GEFS members are like that as well, although more are in the amped western Lake cutter camp. Regardless, strong signals that -EPO, and winter, returns for the last week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Do you even have to ask? A few GEFS members are like that as well, although more are in the amped western Lake cutter camp. Regardless, strong signals that -EPO, and winter, returns for the last week of February. lol, you never know on this forum anymore. But I was 99% sure you were still all in on wanting more wintry opportunities. And yep, signal is for more cold after this mild up next week. Hopefully that happens, because we're oh so close to breaking 60" here...and need some more chances. I see the latest CFS has gone cold for March (not that I trust it as far as I can throw it). Nevertheless though, that's taboo around here...so we'll keep that between me and you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 lol, you never know on this forum anymore. But I was 99% sure you were still all in on wanting more wintry opportunities. And yep, signal is for more cold after this mild up next week. Hopefully that happens, because we're oh so close to breaking 60" here...and need some more chances. I see the latest CFS has gone cold for March (not that I trust it as far as I can throw it). Nevertheless though, that's taboo around here...so we'll keep that between me and you. Can I still needle you about your claim that you wouldn't get to 50", or is that getting to be in bad taste? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Can I still needle you about your claim that you wouldn't get to 50", or is that getting to be in bad taste? Needle away. I deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 0z euro looks great, legit open the windows and let the funk out weather Tell me about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 00z Euro has a strong south flow with 50s and possible storms next Thursday morning here in Iowa. The GFS, on the other hand, keeps the warm front way south of Iowa. Edit: The GFS does bring the warmer air up toward the QC and Chicago by Saturday, so it's just delayed compared to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 00z Euro was pretty incredible for late next week with not one but two very dynamic systems, both with severe potential from the looks of it. Very large warm sectors in place for both. My jaw dropped when I saw that 192 hour map. What are the odds of that solution holding for another week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 for reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 My jaw dropped when I saw that 192 hour map. What are the odds of that solution holding for another week. Well it's post-truncation but the 12z GFS rejoins the party in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 12z GFS brings 60 degree dewpoints almost up to southern tip of Lake Michigan next Saturday and 986 low over central WI. 100-120 kt h5 jet and 50-60 kt h85 jet. Yikes. I for one am not rooting for these solutions from the Euro and GFS because they would entail major flooding for all flood prone areas in the region. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That's just cruel...haha. 0z EURO, 240 hours It will be interesting to see what the 12z shows. Last three runs of the EURO would wipe the snow pack out by Thursday PM. @ RC - Wow, High dewpoints like that would nuke the snow pack away. Flooding for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 12z GFS brings 60 degree dewpoints almost up to southern tip of Lake Michigan next Saturday and 986 low over central WI. 100-120 kt h5 jet and 50-60 kt h85 jet. Yikes. I for one am not rooting for these solutions from the Euro and GFS because they would entail major flooding for all flood prone areas in the region. Sent from my SCH-I535 Actually 120-130 kt max from COD, which is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Actually 120-130 kt max from COD, which is incredible. Really incredible progs on both models. A ways out but quite the impressive severe weather setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 12z GFS brings 60 degree dewpoints almost up to southern tip of Lake Michigan next Saturday and 986 low over central WI. 100-120 kt h5 jet and 50-60 kt h85 jet. Yikes. I for one am not rooting for these solutions from the Euro and GFS because they would entail major flooding for all flood prone areas in the region. Sent from my SCH-I535 12z GFS has MUCAPE of 1000 J/kg up to I-80 at 204 hours. That is alarming from that model. Next week could be whiplash weather at its finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like the 23rd will be the last day of warmth for a while... Hope this all drops south a bit to scoot that warm sector down... No interest in severe weather yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hopefully on the snowy side here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like the 12z Euro is continuing to show a strong lead system, that LLJ is seriously impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 12z Euro looks like it's going to hold with the same general solution for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like the 12z Euro is continuing to show a strong lead system, that LLJ is seriously impressive. Meanwhile a powerful vort max/associated jet streak waiting to dive in behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like the 12z Euro is continuing to show a strong lead system, that LLJ is seriously impressive. Euro takes it down to around 970 mb after it crosses the border into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Euro takes it down to around 970 mb after it crosses the border into Canada. Second wave is a bit shallower coming in, might have to do with that lead system being so strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like the 23rd will be the last day of warmth for a while... Hope this all drops south a bit to scoot that warm sector down... No interest in severe weather yet. Despite sounding like a crazy guy...I actually want another few winter blasts. Here's hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Despite sounding like a crazy guy...I actually want another few winter blasts. Here's hoping! That's what I'm saying.... severe rainfall rates will eat snow. No desire for that YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'd prefer a snowstorm but if we can manage something sub 980mb I could care less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 12Z EURO..... Much colder, scraps all warmth after Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That's what I'm saying.... severe rainfall rates will eat snow. No desire for that YET. Plus makes the ski hills ICY. While I don't want it to melt IMBY ... I know that is not practical. As you know the Petoskey area is what I am watching most. The 12Z EURO is better (still needs some work) than the 0Z EURO that is for sure!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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