Hoosier Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Extended looks ominous in terms of snow melt/flood potential, but it's still fairly far out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 EURO's take on teleconnetions this morning. AO: + to - to neutral NAO: + to neutral to slightly + PNA: neutral to negative EPO: + to slightly + WPO: -, rising then wavering within + CFS cooled temps for March, but before then: 13-18th: below normal south of I-80. above normal north. 16-21st: above normal 18-23: highly above normal especially south of 43°N 21-26th: above normal 23-28th: below normal NW of a line from Saginaw Bay to Galesburg, IL, + south & east 26-3: below normal NW of a line from Alpena to DBQ, slightly above normal south and east. 28-5th and beyond: below normal. euro weeklies has below normal week 1, kinda torchy week 2, and weeks 3/4 below normal with the -epo coming back strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not that Skilling is the long range forecasting guru, but last night he said a few times, a warm up this and next week with the cold to return the week after. Which matches what the euro weeklies are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 euro weeklies has below normal week 1, kinda torchy week 2, and weeks 3/4 below normal with the -epo coming back strong. The "torch" looks to be Wed through Saturday next week, then things get chaotic. We see a definite trough swinging in, but then some weird quasi-zonal pattern. The problem is that the crappy zonal pattern is after truncating the GFS at hour 180, I put little stock in those time frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Day 10 Euro torch....but its day 10...so i won't hold my breath... something to keep an eye on. Saukville already has out the baby oil and lawn chairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Day 10 Euro torch....but its day 10...so i won't hold my breath... something to keep an eye on. Saukville already has out the baby oil and lawn chairs. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Actually my main point is that at least two analogs there were immediately before notable February severe weather events (2/5/08 and 2/10/09). In any case, it appears there is at least some consensus for amplified western troughing and systems dropping out of the GoA vortex (or even a large chunk of that vortex) in addition to a rather significant warm-up, and the teleconnections that Geos listed there support that. Have spent some time looking at the extended and think there's a chance of the first real tstorm/severe threat of the season for parts of the region later next week. My chief concern at this time of year almost always has to do with moisture return and whether it will be of good quality or recycled garbage so that will need to be watched. In terms of sfc/near sfc moisture, I'd have to think that the potentially large amount of melting snow could provide an assist but may result in fog issues, etc. But in terms of the overall large scale setup that is being advertised, this is generally what you want to see. Anyway, something to watch and mix things up in lieu of deep winter, even if the potential goes by the wayside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lock it in. I just looked at the 12z Euro and, unless I'm misinterpreting it, it only shows temperatures in the upper 20s/low 30s for southern Ontario and WNY on the 20th and 21st of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just looked at the 12z Euro and, unless I'm misinterpreting it, it only shows temperatures in the upper 20s/low 30s for southern Ontario and WNY on the 20th and 21st of the month. As explained in the So. Ontario thread, the torch would move in about a day later. Just a transient downstream block that holds in some shallow arctic air for an extra day. It will torch it looks like. Just a question of how long. About half of the 18z GEFS members are pretty brief with it. OP GFS seems to be slower to return the arctic air, with the EURO slower still (although it's also slower with the arrival of the torch). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Have spent some time looking at the extended and think there's a chance of the first real tstorm/severe threat of the season for parts of the region later next week. My chief concern at this time of year almost always has to do with moisture return and whether it will be of good quality or recycled garbage so that will need to be watched. Deep moisture return should be at least half decent if not solid with both the period of return flow and the position of the high off the East Coast (in the means). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Newest 6-10 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Newest 6-10 outlook Wow, immense snow pack is gonna take a hit. I'm all for a big pattern change. Anything to shake these ankle biting grazers we've had here the last two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 00z GFS would be a big problem around here...lots of snowmelt and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wabash Valley would need some arks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 euro weeklies has below normal week 1, kinda torchy week 2, and weeks 3/4 below normal with the -epo coming back strong. awesome... give the weak a few hot toddy's and jello shots - then we polar patron shot's party on in march. Back to back game fishing season openers in May on ice would make this blah winter an A+ for sure. Hopefully that leads to the below normal pattern continuing until we torch next winter out.. Yep early call is winter cancel. wiwx - RIP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 With another full moon on our doorstep and the cold locked in place I feel the long range GFS might be overdone with the warmth. One thing is certain the long time blowing winds have been replaced with tranquil winter time core of cold and a absolute delight in the beauty of winter scenes which are a true rarity in our parts. Its been a long winter and perhaps everyone has enough of the cold. On a bright side the sun is out, radiant heating from the sun is making daytime chores pleasant, so get out there and snojoy the winter landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 awesome... give the weak a few hot toddy's and jello shots - then we polar patron shot's party on in march. Back to back game fishing season openers in May on ice would make this blah winter an A+ for sure. Hopefully that leads to the below normal pattern continuing until we torch next winter out.. Yep early call is winter cancel. wiwx - RIP. With such a historic winter ongoing, I have already started to get a bad feeling about next winter . Of course, enso state, indicies, and analogs will shed more light on that down the road next Fall, so hopefully its just a bad feeling. Although, no way will next winter live up to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 6z GFS would appear to end winter for our sub-forum beginning on the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 With such a historic winter ongoing, I have already started to get a bad feeling about next winter . Of course, enso state, indicies, and analogs will shed more light on that down the road next Fall, so hopefully its just a bad feeling. Although, no way will next winter live up to this one. Even a 'decent' winter will be painful next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 6z GFS would appear to end winter for our sub-forum beginning on the 19th.because the 6z gfs goes to 45 days lol? A warmup is coming next week, magnitude and duration unknown, but signs towards colder than normal weather once again into March. The worst of winter has certainly passed, but its back isnt necessarily broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 6z GFS would appear to end winter for our sub-forum beginning on the 19th. Good! I've never wanted winter to end early more than this year. I am utterly sick of scraping the window of my car every morning and feeling cold constantly. I love loads of snow and temperatures in the uppers 20s/lowers 30s. I cannot stand brutal cold, literally no point to having temperatures get that cold EVER! Just my little rant after hitting a ridiculous -14 this morning. Totally ready for some 50s/60s and sun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good! I've never wanted winter to end early more than this year. I am utterly sick of scraping the window of my car every morning and feeling cold constantly. I love loads of snow and temperatures in the uppers 20s/lowers 30s. I cannot stand brutal cold, literally no point to having temperatures get that cold EVER! Just my little rant after hitting a ridiculous -14 this morning. Totally ready for some 50s/60s and sun! I can kiss goodbye to the coldest winter in 20 years though if those temperatures verify. As I've said time and again, I'd have preferred if the torch held off until March 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 because the 6z gfs goes to 45 days lol? A warmup is coming next week, magnitude and duration unknown, but signs towards colder than normal weather once again into March. The worst of winter has certainly passed, but its back isnt necessarily broken. There were some that ended winter with the Post Christmas warm up and then some that cancelled winter with the January warm-up ... it is just going to get worse with this warm up. Don't waste your time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On a more positive note, did people see what the Euro is depicting for Toronto next Monday? 11" of snow? Wow! Good thing that would hit on a holiday (Family Day) if it did. of course, given it's the Weatherbell maps, sleet and freezing rain could be mixed in, although it I saying that we end up with a snow depth of 30" in Pearson airport by the 19th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On a more positive note, did people see what the Euro is depicting for Toronto next Monday? 11" of snow? Wow! Good thing that would hit on a holiday (Family Day) if it did. of course, given it's the Weatherbell maps, sleet and freezing rain could be mixed in, although it I saying that we end up with a snow depth of 30" in Pearson airport by the 19th! You guys get a Family Day up there? What the!??! That is awesome haha. I think you guys have double the amount of holidays the states have, so jealous. =( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I can kiss goodbye to the coldest winter in 20 years though if those temperatures verify. As I've said time and again, I'd have preferred if the torch held off until March 1st. I would be happy if we never set another record for consistent cold weather ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You guys get a Family Day up there? What the!??! That is awesome haha. I think you guys have double the amount of holidays the states have, so jealous. =( The exact opposite actually. Our holidays are: 1) New Year's Day 2) Family Day 3) Good Friday 4) Victoria Day 5) Canada Day 6) Labour Day 7) Canadian Thanksgiving 8) Christmas Day 9) Boxing Day Sorry about the off-topic moderators.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The exact opposite actually. Our holidays are: 1) New Year's Day 2) Family Day 3) Good Friday 4) Victoria Day 5) Canada Day 6) Labour Day 7) Canadian Thanksgiving 8) Christmas Day 9) Boxing Day Sorry about the off-topic moderators.... And one more holiday: Simcoe/Civic Day on the first Monday of August Back on topic, last night's Euro and GEM looked pretty sweet for early next week. GFS not so much. It'll be interesting to see which solution pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 6z GFS would appear to end winter for our sub-forum beginning on the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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