chazz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12z EURO is nice torch for next week. 50s/60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The CFS has been running cold almost every day for March, and the latest CFS weeklies only have 1 week (week 2) as above normal here...with week 3 a battle zone (cold north warm south) and week 1 and 4 cold. We are going to be out numbered in the weeks ahead. Right now it appears 75% on this forum are ready to move on and be done (less a big dog). The calls for warmth will be the standard. Be ready for the sun angle and warmth will not be denied posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Bring on the warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 D10 OP EURO you can already see ridging rebuilding into AK. Wondering if the warm up will be short-lived. Heard the EURO ensembles also start to cool things down again D11-15. No rooting for spring on my end. If winter ended today it'd be truly disappointing snowfall wise at YYZ. Need to pile on every inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 D10 OP EURO you can already see ridging rebuilding into AK. Wondering if the warm up will be short-lived. Heard the EURO ensembles also start to cool things down again D11-15. No rooting for spring on my end. If winter ended today it'd be truly disappointing snowfall wise at YYZ. Need to pile on every inch. This. The 12z Euro has a nice looking system in about a weeks time (next Tuesday). It's still out there in la la land, but the 12z GGEM has it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 everybody's winter fantasies have been satisfied outside a outright blizzard. Winter is not over for me or several others so this is a personal opinion and not a fact as you are insinuating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This. The 12z Euro has a nice looking system in about a weeks time (next Tuesday). It's still out there in la la land, but the 12z GGEM has it too. I noticed that system. Here's H5 anomalies for D8-10 from the big 3: GFS is the most aggressive with the warming. EURO/GEM have some ridging over/just east of Greenland. It's not technically an east based -NAO, so it doesn't show up in the indices, but it may still do the trick to shunt the heart of the warming early next week to our SW, or at least impede its advancement a bit. Might also give us a snowstorm threat around D8-9 like you've pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Winter is not over for me or several others so this is a personal opinion and not a fact as you are insinuating! Seconded. This winter's been a'ight as the kids say but for far from a fantasy for a lot of us. I'm sure Hawkeye, Cyclone, and the WI crew would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Usually I want spring by the 2nd-3rd week of March. This year is much different, I am ready for full fledged warmth, bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 D10 OP EURO you can already see ridging rebuilding into AK. Wondering if the warm up will be short-lived. Heard the EURO ensembles also start to cool things down again D11-15. No rooting for spring on my end. If winter ended today it'd be truly disappointing snowfall wise at YYZ. Need to pile on every inch. Pretty strong EB NAO ridging on the 12z euro EPS around D9. Also has a return to a +PNA/-EPO pattern in the 11-15 day period. Could be winters last hurrah with analogs pointing to -PNA/+NAO pattern in march, although it can't stay that way for the entire month. Curious to see how well they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The CFS has been running cold almost every day for March, and the latest CFS weeklies only have 1 week (week 2) as above normal here...with week 3 a battle zone (cold north warm south) and week 1 and 4 cold. Well it flipped on the 12z run. This is a 45 day map. The coldest week; apart from this one, is March 2-7th and that's no more than -2° normal. Breakdown of the 10-20 day, 5 day periods. 15-20th: -0.5°- +3° 18-23rd: 5°-9° 20-25th: 4°-6.5° 23-28th: -0.25°-2.5° 25-2nd: +0.5-3° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pretty strong EB NAO ridging on the 12z euro EPS around D9. Also has a return to a +PNA/-EPO pattern in the 11-15 day period. Could be winters last hurrah with analogs pointing to -PNA/+NAO pattern in march, although it can't stay that way for the entire month. Curious to see how well they do. Actually, for the first time this winter I'm liking our location in the subforum. We might stand the best chance of avoiding the brunt of the torch. We are going to need some sort of -NAO or pseudo -NAO to develop because the Pacific is going to turn ugly next week. If it materializes, the D8 storm, and even that cutterish type storm beyond 240 may not be total losses for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Actually, for the first time this winter I'm liking our location in the subforum. We might stand the best chance of avoiding the brunt of the torch. We are going to need some sort of -NAO or pseudo -NAO to develop because the Pacific is going to turn ugly next week. If it materializes, the D8 storm, and even that cutterish type storm beyond 240 may not be total losses for us. Agree that there is still plenty of potential with the upcoming pattern. The updated euro weeklies just came in and they look beautiful. Trough axis is centred over the rockies from ~feb 25-march 15 with a SE ridge in place and -epo AK ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Agree that there is still plenty of potential with the upcoming pattern. The updated euro weeklies just came in and they look beautiful. Trough axis is centred over the rockies from ~feb 25-march 15 with a SE ridge in place and -epo AK ridging. I really think some big dogs will be setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Agree that there is still plenty of potential with the upcoming pattern. The updated euro weeklies just came in and they look beautiful. Trough axis is centred over the rockies from ~feb 25-march 15 with a SE ridge in place and -epo AK ridging. That's what the mets on the New England forum have been talking up, a reload the last week of Feb in the -EPO. Persistence has been a good forecast this winter so wouldn't be surprised if that holds for a while if it comes to fruition after the thaw. Perhaps this upcoming warm up may turn out like mid January, maybe with a few warmer days than then because of the higher sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I would say in the next 7-10 days the best chances of snow would be from the U.P. to southern Ontario and probably NE OH. GFS was showing some ice here on the 12z run for Monday before it warms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazz Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Would you rather have the pattern flip now or in June? Eventually it will flip, the rubber band has to snap and we will endure a period of above normal temperatures. If it happens in June, brace yourself for a summer of endless heat. If it happens now and then cools to normal by summer, it could be a really nice extended period of weather. The people that want this endless below normal regime should think about above before continuing to wish for it. Mother nature will even things out eventually and that's how we get "averages". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm excited about the warmup! Looks like the 60's are a good bet down here, perhaps we can make a run at 70. If we do get back into a colder spell, I hope to see a severe weather system out ahead of it. But I will say this, I have a gut feeling that Louisville sees at least one more minor snow fall if not one of those late winter storm before winter ends. People will go crazy if we do because our public schools have had 10 snow days this winter and have already lost their week long winter break the last week of February. It has been a good winter for me with lots of snow cover despite nickel and diming our way to 20 inches. Our biggest storm has only been 5.5 inches surprisingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Would you rather have the pattern flip now or in June? Eventually it will flip, the rubber band has to snap and we will endure a period of above normal temperatures. If it happens in June, brace yourself for a summer of endless heat. If it happens now and then cools to normal by summer, it could be a really nice extended period of weather. The people that want this endless below normal regime should think about above before continuing to wish for it. Mother nature will even things out eventually and that's how we get "averages". How did that work out in 2012 when winter ( well wasn't much of a winter but you get the idea.. lol ) flipped to spring/early summer wx in March? FYI.. It doesn't work like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm excited about the warmup! Looks like the 60's are a good bet down here, perhaps we can make a run at 70. If we do get back into a colder spell, I hope to see a severe weather system out ahead of it. But I will say this, I have a gut feeling that Louisville sees at least one more minor snow fall if not one of those late winter storm before winter ends. People will go crazy if we do because our public schools have had 10 snow days this winter and have already lost their week long winter break the last week of February. It has been a good winter for me with lots of snow cover despite nickel and diming our way to 20 inches. Our biggest storm has only been 5.5 inches surprisingly. You guys get spring break that early? I think your latitude combined with the ever increasing sun angle will keep the roads from getting too bad in a snowfall. That's really impressive... 10 days off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 You guys get spring break that early? I think your latitude combined with the ever increasing sun angle will keep the roads from getting too bad in a snowfall. That's really impressive... 10 days off! That's not spring break. That's a mid-winter break made purposely for snow days, they'll get a spring break in April. I'm 25 and I went to Catholic schools and they have no such thing as a mid-winter break just a spring break in April. And the 10 snow days is close to a record. A lot of our snows have happened in the morning this year causing schools officials to cancel school. It usually only takes a few hours though to clear the roads and everything is fine and the kids were back in school the next day. A couple of the cancellation were for the days where the highs failed to reach the upper single digits. We aren't used to single digits highs. Heck we only average four or five single digit lows a year. I'd estimate that four of the snow days were due to cold weather, five of the days due to snow, and another day for the ice storm last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seconded. This winter's been a'ight as the kids say but for far from a fantasy for a lot of us. I'm sure Hawkeye, Cyclone, and the WI crew would agree. Yep, far from it. The best part has been the fact that we've had snow on the ground since late Nov/early December. Largest 24 hour snowfall, imby, is <5". The most impressive part has been the cold and that doesn't do it for me, personally. Would be nice to get at least one storm to track up this way. Then I'm ready for warmer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That's not spring break. That's a mid-winter break made purposely for snow days, they'll get a spring break in April. I'm 25 and I went to Catholic schools and they have no such thing as a mid-winter break just a spring break in April. And the 10 snow days is close to a record. A lot of our snows have happened in the morning this year causing schools officials to cancel school. It usually only takes a few hours though to clear the roads and everything is fine and the kids were back in school the next day. A couple of the cancellation were for the days where the highs failed to reach the upper single digits. We aren't used to single digits highs. Heck we only average four or five single digit lows a year. I'd estimate that four of the snow days were due to cold weather, five of the days due to snow, and another day for the ice storm last week. We never had a winter break back when i was in school. Had the Christmas break and then Easter break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Quite the interesting latest 8-14 day analog composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Quite the interesting latest 8-14 day analog composite. Mix of results here looking at those years but I think a 2008 Feb/March ending would be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Quite the interesting latest 8-14 day analog composite. Many heavy hitting years on there in terms of severe (I'm assuming that's what you're implying) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Many heavy hitting years on there in terms of severe (I'm assuming that's what you're implying) That was my take away as well, not to mention the Pacific Jet on steroids slamming into the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 EURO's take on teleconnetions this morning. AO: + to - to neutral NAO: + to neutral to slightly + PNA: neutral to negative EPO: + to slightly + WPO: -, rising then wavering within + CFS cooled temps for March, but before then: 13-18th: below normal south of I-80. above normal north. 16-21st: above normal 18-23: highly above normal especially south of 43°N 21-26th: above normal 23-28th: below normal NW of a line from Saginaw Bay to Galesburg, IL, + south & east 26-3: below normal NW of a line from Alpena to DBQ, slightly above normal south and east. 28-5th and beyond: below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 EURO's take on teleconnetions this morning. AO: + to - to neutral NAO: + to neutral to slightly + PNA: neutral to negative EPO: + to slightly + WPO: -, rising then wavering within + CFS cooled temps for March, but before then: 13-18th: below normal south of I-80. above normal north. 16-21st: above normal 18-23: highly above normal especially south of 43°N 21-26th: above normal 23-28th: below normal NW of a line from Saginaw Bay to Galesburg, IL, + south & east 26-3: below normal NW of a line from Alpena to DBQ, slightly above normal south and east. 28-5th and beyond: below normal. Wow the GFS 12Z Ensembles are all over the place. Going to be interesting to see where we end up by March 1st. Thankfully my 2 ski trips over the next few weeks both look to be when it is cold out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Many heavy hitting years on there in terms of severe (I'm assuming that's what you're implying) Actually my main point is that at least two analogs there were immediately before notable February severe weather events (2/5/08 and 2/10/09). In any case, it appears there is at least some consensus for amplified western troughing and systems dropping out of the GoA vortex (or even a large chunk of that vortex) in addition to a rather significant warm-up, and the teleconnections that Geos listed there support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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