Harry Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 And yeah there was no joy in posting what i did above. This zzzZZZzzz crap is for the birds. Atleast a regime change may have brought some real action vs this weak sauce like tonight. Cold and boring does zilch for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not if what you said about the epo is true? This one says Feb 18th vs the other you mentioned which is tomorrow it is expected to go +? I wasn't even looking at the dates. Yeah those are different. Both the GFS and EURO saying it will go positive by Monday. The charts don't even match for today... With regards to the NAO and blocking, it is running above the forecasted mean right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I wasn't even looking at the dates. Yeah those are different. Both the GFS and EURO saying it will go positive by Monday. The charts don't even match for today... EPO_020914.png With regards to the NAO and blocking, it is running above the forecasted mean right now. yeah something is off.. EPO data here which shows it to e lower then the chart implies. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt Per the link the chart should be showing -3.5 back on the 6th. Thus for some reason it seems the euro people are off? Unless they calculate it differently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 yeah something is off.. EPO data here which shows it to e lower then the chart implies. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt Per the link the chart should be showing -3.5 back on the 6th. Thus for some reason it seems the euro people are off? Unless they calculate it differently? Don't know what to make of it, other than the calculation is done differently. The GFS and EURO match for the 6th and actually it should already be +. There's definitely a trough south of Alaska now, so that does make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Don't know what to make of it, other than the calculation is done differently. The GFS and EURO match for the 6th and actually it should already be +. There's definitely a trough south of Alaska now, so that does make sense. Technically i don't believe this is a +PDO.. That is fresh off the 00z euro. Trough needs to be a bit further west and thus the lowest heights over AK/GOA vs to the east in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Now if that system to the south of the Aleutians was to move up into the Gulf of AK and hang there then yeah that could flip the PDO to +. EDIT.. The euro is trying to do that fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Now if that system to the south of the Aleutians was to move up into the Gulf of AK and hang there then yeah that could flip the PDO to +. EDIT.. The euro is trying to do that fwiw. Interesting. Another thing of note. Don S. was mentioning the ENSO region 3.4 could end up warming next month. Something to watch too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Interesting. Another thing of note. Don S. was mentioning the ENSO region 3.4 could end up warming next month. Something to watch too. I prefer it stay as is.. Would offer some better spring time action. Note as well the GOA. It shows the damage the -EPO has done up there. That system may eat away at a bit of that though. We'll see anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 No change for Quad Cities: GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTING MAJOR REGIME CHANGE STARTING AFTER TUESDAY WITH MILDER TO MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES BY DAY 10...PROBABLY LASTING MUCH LONGER. SEE YESTERDAY PM LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR INFORMATION AS TO WHY...THE RATE OF WARM UP LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK WILL TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO BETTER (GAGE. )STILL FAVORABLE FOR MAJOR CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS RUN TO RUN AS THIS SHIFT IN REGIMES OCCURS. Hmmmm,....Quad Cities this AM: THE FLEETING EXPERIENCE WITH NORMAL/COMPARATIVELY MILD AIR WILL BE OVER BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE 20S FRIDAY. A CLIPPER COULD BRING SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY....WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I have to say I am excited for a break from snowfall this week. Taking care of my driveway has been like a full time job lately. It will be like having a mini-vacation. I only have to work one job (the one I get paid for) instead of 2 jobs. I still think we are in for some good winter weather ahead as it is only mid-Feb. Sure some signals are not the best right now but in a week a lot can and usually does with the models. The end result is it likely means we are going to just a more up & down swings instead of just down and very down temps that we have seen lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I prefer it stay as is.. Would offer some better spring time action. Note as well the GOA. It shows the damage the -EPO has done up there. That system may eat away at a bit of that though. We'll see anyways. Years that have featured a rapid flip in ENSO have historically been rather active for severe weather though. Even with a rather weak negative ENSO signal to start out, some years that featured that include 1957, 1965, 1997 and 2002 (3/4 were on the active side). The first two of that set had a whopping 57 violent tornadoes between them. Even if you take away 1965's signature event (Palm Sunday), you still wind up with 14 violent tornadoes that year. 1957 and 1997 both featured substantial -EPO signals in mid/late January and 1957 also had a predominately +NAO in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hmmmm,....Quad Cities this AM: THE FLEETING EXPERIENCE WITH NORMAL/COMPARATIVELY MILD AIR WILL BE OVER BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE 20S FRIDAY. A CLIPPER COULD BRING SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY....WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. I don't know why they're so focused on Thursday for. It is day 7-8 when the real changes start occurring. Newest trend in the AO; on the GFS, is keeping it more positive. Teleconnection trends this week off the EURO. AO; positive to neutral NAO; positive PNA; negative to neutral EPO; going highly positive WPO; negative to positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I don't know why they're so focused on Thursday for. It is day 7-8 when the real changes start occurring. Newest trend in the AO; on the GFS, is keeping it more positive. Teleconnection trends this week off the EURO. AO; positive to neutral NAO; positive PNA; negative to neutral EPO; going highly positive WPO; negative to positive So what's your call. +10, +15 or +20 F departures coming end Feb. 15 - March 15? G.L. Snow gone by March 1st? You seem to be highly favoring a torch coming. What's your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 So what's your call. +10, +15 or +20 F departures coming end Feb. 15 - March 15? G.L. Snow gone by March 1st? You seem to be highly favoring a torch coming. What's your call? Well I just showing what I see is pointing towards milder times next week. I could make some educated guesses. Probably widespread 40s for at least three days next week. Possibly lower 50s near the Ohio River and west towards St. Louis. I would say the snow pack will take a big hit in the western and southern parts of the sub forum. Snow pack should remain over the upper Great Lakes and a lot of Michigan, since there is so much of it. +10° seems reasonable. No reason to go higher due to the all the snow cover. Possibility of a rain system like our region had after the big cold shot in early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Some amateur analysis on model warming trend: http://nrnilstormchaser.com/local/20140209wxrndup Not sure the post-truncation GFS is the best thing to back up your thoughts, might be better to use an ensemble mean, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well I just showing what I see is pointing towards milder times next week. I could make some educated guesses. Probably widespread 40s for at least three days next week. Possibly lower 50s near the Ohio River and west towards St. Louis. I would say the snow pack will take a big hit in the western and southern parts of the sub forum. Snow pack should remain over the upper Great Lakes and a lot of Michigan, since there is so much of it. +10° seems reasonable. No reason to go higher due to the all the snow cover. Possibility of a rain system like our region had after the big cold shot in early January. Ok cool. You believe a solid above normal pattern is coming with the indexes your are showing. I don't think anyone is going to argue a pattern change is on the way starting mid-Feb and milder times are ahead. Heck even normalish will feel mild now. I am not so sure we are going to a prolonged above normal pattern but rather an up and down pattern in the GLs. Averaging near normal over time (+/- 2F). I think we are going become a major battle zone. I think this winter is going to go out fighting in this area. There are hints both ways so you could be right. Either way it has been an incredible winter that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ok cool. You believe a solid above normal pattern is coming with the indexes your are showing. I don't think anyone is going to argue a pattern change is on the way starting mid-Feb and milder times are ahead. Heck even normalish will feel mild now. I am not so sure we are going to a prolonged above normal pattern but rather an up and down pattern in the GLs. Averaging near normal over time (+/- 2F). I think we are going become a major battle zone. I think this winter is going to go out fighting in this area. There are hints both ways so you could be right. Either way it has been an incredible winter that's for sure! I definitely think that. More wet snows and probably freezing rain events are on the way. 12z EURO's take on the teleconnection trends. Difference is the AO stays more or less +. AO: + to neutral to + NAO: + PNA: "-"/neutral now to neutral EPO: positive (neutral now) WPO: - to + to neutral GFS is close agreement on that run. This is a big change. An example of what the EURO shows by next weekend. At 850 mb, "anomaly". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ballsy call geos.. Good luck with it. I'll discuss what the models etc are showing but not enough confidence to make such a call. Don't trust modeling beyond day 5 for one. The signals are mixed for another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 40s always occur in the Great Lakes in February, so I see that as pretty reasonable for next week. Izzi's take on Thursday and beyond. CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH THE AREA IN THEWARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY. OBVIOUSLY THE FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW ON THEFROZEN TUNDRA THAT OUR GROUND HAS BECOME WILL RETARD THE WARM UPSOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY...BUT STILL THINK TEMPS WILL MAKE A RUN ATCLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING MANY AREAS. WARM SECTORS OF CLIPPERS AREN`TTERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP...BUT OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHTCHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SINCE SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIESCOULD`T BE RULED COULD GIVEN THE CURRENT LOOKS OF MEDIUM RANGEMODELS.BEYOND THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THATTHERE THE PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFICJET PLOWING INTO THE COUNTRY. THEY STILL WANT TO PRODUCE SOMETROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO ANOVERALL BELOW AVERAGE TEMP REGIME...BUT PROBABLY FAR LESS SO THANWHAT WE ARE ACCUSTOMED TO. SOME THREAT OF PRECIP WILL EXISTS WITHTHE PACIFIC SYSTEM...BUT WITH GULF SHUT DOWN NOT LOOKING LIKE ANYBIG PRECIP OR SNOW MAKERS AT THIS POINT.IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 bring on the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Some amateur analysis on model warming trend: http://nrnilstormchaser.com/local/20140209wxrndup This has been such a harsh winter that more normal weather at the end of February will seem crazy mild. LOVE that comment "I think that this has been a normal winter compared to the past 5 to 7 years... I may be wrong but this is how I remember winters as a kid......" The ranks have certainly thinned this winter, as I have heard many people claim they "never remember a winter like this" and also my one uncle who always has embelished memories of winters of his youth has cried uncle. But some of these people N-E-V-E-R give up!!!! I would love NOTHING more than for these people who have the unwavering memory of what winters used to put up or shut up. I want to see pictures of these winters when you were a kid. We are at a point now when every single person alive has had very accurate weather data recorded their entire lifetime...and its bad enough that many of them laughingly grew up during periods of largely anemic winters, but its worse when one of the harshest winters this region has ever seen is akin to what "normal" used to be . God that irritates me! I hope mother nature dumps a special load of 4 feet of snow just over those peoples houses just to shut them up and put them to work ///rant over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No torch till mid march please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This has been such a harsh winter that more normal weather at the end of February will seem crazy mild. LOVE that comment "I think that this has been a normal winter compared to the past 5 to 7 years... I may be wrong but this is how I remember winters as a kid......" The ranks have certainly thinned this winter, as I have heard many people claim they "never remember a winter like this" and also my one uncle who always has embelished memories of winters of his youth has cried uncle. But some of these people N-E-V-E-R give up!!!! I would love NOTHING more than for these people who have the unwavering memory of what winters used to put up or shut up. I want to see pictures of these winters when you were a kid. We are at a point now when every single person alive has had very accurate weather data recorded their entire lifetime...and its bad enough that many of them laughingly grew up during periods of largely anemic winters, but its worse when one of the harshest winters this region has ever seen is akin to what "normal" used to be . God that irritates me! I hope mother nature dumps a special load of 4 feet of snow just over those peoples houses just to shut them up and put them to work ///rant over Waiting for this site to update to include all of January, I would really like to compare this Dec to Jan compared to the 81-2010 period, as oppose to the 1961 thru 1990 period. Of course there would be deep blues all over the map when compared to 81-2010. I wonder what it will look like when compared to years gone by. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Waiting for this site to update to include all of January, I would really like to compare this Dec to Jan compared to the 81-2010 period, as oppose to the 1961 thru 1990 period. Of course there would be deep blues all over the map when compared to 81-2010. I wonder what it will look like when compared to years gone by. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ Dec-Jan-Feb (when all said and done), will be very blue and below normal compared to any timeframe. We are currently having our 6th coldest winter of all time and Feb should finish at a min of -5℉ to ensure that remains true to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I know that weather site " My Forecast" is a joke and that it only reflects recent runs of the GFS, but my question is: which run? The My Forecast update for Toronto shows a torch beginning next weekend, with temperatures up to the mid 40s. Is that reflective of the 12z run of the GFS or the most recent 18z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Waiting for this site to update to include all of January, I would really like to compare this Dec to Jan compared to the 81-2010 period, as oppose to the 1961 thru 1990 period. Of course there would be deep blues all over the map when compared to 81-2010. I wonder what it will look like when compared to years gone by. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ This has been such a harsh winter that more normal weather at the end of February will seem crazy mild. LOVE that comment "I think that this has been a normal winter compared to the past 5 to 7 years... I may be wrong but this is how I remember winters as a kid......" The ranks have certainly thinned this winter, as I have heard many people claim they "never remember a winter like this" and also my one uncle who always has embelished memories of winters of his youth has cried uncle. But some of these people N-E-V-E-R give up!!!! I would love NOTHING more than for these people who have the unwavering memory of what winters used to put up or shut up. I want to see pictures of these winters when you were a kid. We are at a point now when every single person alive has had very accurate weather data recorded their entire lifetime...and its bad enough that many of them laughingly grew up during periods of largely anemic winters, but its worse when one of the harshest winters this region has ever seen is akin to what "normal" used to be . God that irritates me! I hope mother nature dumps a special load of 4 feet of snow just over those peoples houses just to shut them up and put them to work ///rant over Also take a look at this. Here at MPX we are approaching the top 10 for days when readings went below zero. I'm a 57 year old geezer and this is the type of winter I remember. Notice 77-78, 78-79, 83-84, and 81-82. I don't think us geezer's are embellishing anything, our memories are spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 With the forecasted warm-up, it looks like Toronto might just miss having the coldest winter in 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ok cool. You believe a solid above normal pattern is coming with the indexes your are showing. I don't think anyone is going to argue a pattern change is on the way starting mid-Feb and milder times are ahead. Heck even normalish will feel mild now. I am not so sure we are going to a prolonged above normal pattern but rather an up and down pattern in the GLs. Averaging near normal over time (+/- 2F). I think we are going become a major battle zone. I think this winter is going to go out fighting in this area. There are hints both ways so you could be right. Either way it has been an incredible winter that's for sure! I think the major battle zone will further NW than this. Goes may be in it, but I believe it will set up from Madison WI to MSP, I know that Chicagowx has seen my thoughts about this. Late Feb and March I think we own for winter weather. This goes back to the winter forecast that I posted in the comment section here.http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/10/final-2013-2014-winter-forecast.html I am known there as randyinchamplin in the comments section. I wished I would have called for a very snowy season for Chicago and LAF, as I strongly hinted at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 With the forecasted warm-up, it looks like Toronto might just miss having the coldest winter in 20 years. How do you figure? We're killing the nearest competitor by 2.5 degrees. Also...it would have to be a true torch for the 2.5 months of neg. departures to be erased. There's no indications that's on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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