Chicago WX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Accuweather may claim to be a national forecast center, but they are extremely east coast biased. Winter will return one last time in early march? ooooh Im shaking in my boots . Outside of 2012, when is winter NOT still around in early March (or some point later) in our neck of the woods lol. Geos wouldn't have posted that, if it didn't have "mild air follows the storm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Accuweather is for the storm and a reprieve from the current state of affairs. They say right out though, that winter will return one last time in early March. They are pretty much banking on the euro weeklies week 4 forecast panning out if they are making that call. The MJO progression (shifting from eastern to central IO) would suggest that we see increased return flow across the plains with a +NAO/maritime trough and plains ridging. Not seeing a terribly strong signal from the roundy plots, however. The wave 2 strat split and N Pac SST forcing is probably the main driver that can encourage the trough to sit over the east/GL's during the first week of march. Important point to note is the changing forcing you see from a +QBO coupled with a cool biased ENSO neutral once you get into march/april(favours more of an RNA pattern with a much stronger meridional component to the E/SE ridge). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 They are pretty much banking on the euro weeklies week 4 forecast panning out if they are making that call. The MJO progression (shifting from eastern to central IO) would suggest that we see increased return flow across the plains with a +NAO/maritime trough and plains ridging. Not seeing a terribly strong signal from the roundy plots, however. The wave 2 strat split and N Pac SST forcing is probably the main driver that can encourage the trough to sit over the east/GL's during the first week of march. Important point to note is the changing forcing you see from a +QBO coupled with a cool biased ENSO neutral once you get into march/april(favours more of an RNA pattern with a much stronger meridional component to the E/SE ridge). Joe Bastardi is riding the Japanese forecast model which has the cold continuing through February. Apparently, according to him, that model was one of the only ones to foresee the cold winter. He says the Euro is having problems this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 They are pretty much banking on the euro weeklies week 4 forecast panning out if they are making that call. The MJO progression (shifting from eastern to central IO) would suggest that we see increased return flow across the plains with a +NAO/maritime trough and plains ridging. Not seeing a terribly strong signal from the roundy plots, however. The wave 2 strat split and N Pac SST forcing is probably the main driver that can encourage the trough to sit over the east/GL's during the first week of march. Important point to note is the changing forcing you see from a +QBO coupled with a cool biased ENSO neutral once you get into march/april(favours more of an RNA pattern with a much stronger meridional component to the E/SE ridge). I was just pointing out what someone else had. I don't believe the Pacific air will reach all the way to the coast. I do believe most of the sub forum will see the central ridge for a short time at least. Probably areas from eastern Ohio on east into NY, PA will see slightly below normal temps at the most. I'm not going to bank on anything past Day 7 at this point. Been seeing too much variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Joe Bastardi is riding the Japanese forecast model which has the cold continuing through February. Apparently, according to him, that model was one of the only ones to foresee the cold winter. He says the Euro is having problems this year. JB likes his weather extremes. That's probably why he's in love with the JMA. lol Back in December he said much of the country would see a break in February, and now that it is showing up in some form he trying to go to the most extreme long range solution/outlook! Edit: Skilling now thinking there could be a pattern change coming. "More moderate blend of cold" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This weekend will be the first in about 5 that we haven't had some sort of significant system here, which means we will probably pay double next weekend. As for the Euro, yes there is little run to run consistency but I wouldn't completely discount the potential. The system that would produce this storm is currently in the western part of the Gulf Of Alaska, and extremely vigorous at that. Plus with it being close to Alaska itself, there is at least partial sampling going on. So the models aren't completely blind to the current phase of the system. Also as it looks right now, the teleconnections look to flip around that time, and when that happens usually something big comes with the pattern flip. I was planning to write the exact same thing about the potential for a bigger event as the teleconnections change phase. You could say the signal is there on the GFS too, with 990 or lower system, but instead of a sw system a powerful clipper. Remains to be seen if we remain in the west-northwest flow pattern or the -PNA pattern behaves in a more classical way and the southeast ridge pumps to enable a sw flow system into the region similar to what the 12z Euro showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wow. Big differences in every run of the GFS and Euro for next weekend. I just gonna wait a couple of days before getting excited about anything. The only thing next weekend has going for it is the consistency of weekend crush jobs for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wow. Big differences in every run of the GFS and Euro for next weekend. I just gonna wait a couple of days before getting excited about anything. The only thing next weekend has going for it is the consistency of weekend crush jobs for ORD. Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 JB likes his weather extremes. That's probably why he's in love with the JMA. lol Back in December he said much of the country would see a break in February, and now that it is showing up in some form he trying to go to the most extreme long range solution/outlook! Edit: Skilling now thinking there could be a pattern change coming. "More moderate blend of cold" Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Bam! Finally gets rid of the blue over us... Its a step in the right direction...there is light at the end of the tunnel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Bam! Finally gets rid of the blue over us... Its a step in the right direction...there is light at the end of the tunnel Probably have to start contending with "cooler near the lake" around here. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Probably have to start contending with "cooler near the lake" around here. haha pray for ripping SW flow this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 pray for ripping SW flow this spring. Hey, even springtime like cooler near the lake won't be that bad when compared to this winter so far. 40s in April and May will still feel like a dream, I just hope we can still have some storms this spring and they won't always be killed by a lake breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Brace yourselves. This could get boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Brace yourselves. This could get boring. yep, after today we're looking at a 10+ day snooze fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z GFS very scant with the snowfall in the sub forum for awhile. Upper Michigan/Wisconsin may cash in, which would make Jonger happy. EURO showing the teleconnections doing this... AO: + to neutral/slightly - NAO: staying + PNA: - to neutral EPO: going + by tomorrow WPO: going + by the 12/13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I don't see boring after today. No big dogs most likely, but not completely void of action. And of course, some warmer interludes at times too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'd like to see it get closer to the near term before buying into some of these torchy operational runs (especially 12z) GFS and the 2/7 CFS weeklies. 12z Euro for instance is not nearly as warm, but it looks like it's trying out on day 10 for a big warm up. The large scale signals are pointing toward cutting off cross polar flow (+EPO) and going more zonal but with the amount of snow cover around and cold built up, all it'll take is some weak blocking in NAO region to keep some troughiness around for temperatures to end up closer to average. Certainly looks like we won't be in the freezer anymore after the next round of early week cold, which is a good thing I'd say. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I don't see boring after today. No big dogs most likely, but not completely void of action. And of course, some warmer interludes at times too. We have to keep in mind that toward the end of the runs, average temps are creeping upward, so mid 30's will be more seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'd like to see it get closer to the near term before buying into some of these torchy operational runs (especially 12z) GFS and the 2/7 CFS weeklies. 12z Euro for instance is not nearly as warm, but it looks like it's trying out on day 10 for a big warm up. The large scale signals are pointing toward cutting off cross polar flow (+EPO) and going more zonal but with the amount of snow cover around and cold built up, all it'll take is some weak blocking in NAO region to keep some troughiness around for temperatures to end up closer to average. Certainly looks like we won't be in the freezer anymore after the next round of early week cold, which is a good thing I'd say. Sent from my SCH-I535 At the very least the roads can thaw out and black ice will hopefully decrease as we go forwards. The increasing sun angle will act to compact some of this snow. Thinking a stretch of 40s is reasonable later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 18z GFS continues to torch by Sunday Feb. 16 but how realistic is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 We have to keep in mind that toward the end of the runs, average temps are creeping upward, so mid 30's will be more seasonal. Upper 30s is already seasonal here in the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Keep in mind normal temps will feel like a heat wave. I like the idea of a little warmer perhaps lows in the mid 20's so salt will be more effective again. Melting down 2.5" of solid ice in some of the shady low spots in some lots has been nearly impossible. In the heart of winter the general cycle of cold front, warming then a colder front is turning into a memory I am afraid. Over the next few weeks a new pattern of more spring like weather might be in order. I'm thinking the cold will continue thru Feb and moderate as March gets closer. One thing is certain, the radiant heat from the sun has been increasing over the past week or so. Yesterday with a high of 15°F melting snow was witnessed on lots with no salt in the areas where the asphalt was peeking thru. Had to re-salt as the sun dropped to achieve a non black ice situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z GFS very scant with the snowfall in the sub forum for awhile. Upper Michigan/Wisconsin may cash in, which would make Jonger happy. EURO showing the teleconnections doing this... AO: + to neutral/slightly - NAO: staying + PNA: - to neutral EPO: going + by tomorrow WPO: going + by the 12/13th. Then there is this.. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Pick your poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Then there is this.. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Pick your poison. Except for the PNA it looks like they agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Except for the PNA it looks like they agree. Not if what you said about the epo is true? This one says Feb 18th vs the other you mentioned which is tomorrow it is expected to go +? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 As said before though the models will struggle during regime changes. Just best not to get caught up in anything to far out. I am sure the models will change again. Part of the problem may be tied to the MJO which the models for a while had revving up in phase 5/6 and well that is now hanging in the COD and at best may only make a brief entrance into phase 5/6 depending on model. Had it done as some of the models showed ( GFS etc ) then yeah it could have brought a huge change to the wx pattern as typically 5/6 is a warmer signal for this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GFS looks way more blocky downstream in the Atlantic this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 ^^^^^^^^^Angry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Keep in mind normal temps will feel like a heat wave. I like the idea of a little warmer perhaps lows in the mid 20's so salt will be more effective again. Melting down 2.5" of solid ice in some of the shady low spots in some lots has been nearly impossible. In the heart of winter the general cycle of cold front, warming then a colder front is turning into a memory I am afraid. Over the next few weeks a new pattern of more spring like weather might be in order. I'm thinking the cold will continue thru Feb and moderate as March gets closer. One thing is certain, the radiant heat from the sun has been increasing over the past week or so. Yesterday with a high of 15°F melting snow was witnessed on lots with no salt in the areas where the asphalt was peeking thru. Had to re-salt as the sun dropped to achieve a non black ice situation. Love your plow industry insights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.