extremewx52 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Will be interested to see if more of the models have an Ohio Valley storm with the 12Z model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The 0z European apparently showed severe cold returning to our region for mid and late January, followed by an early February torch. Shades of 1980-81? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The 0z European apparently showed severe cold returning to our region for mid and late January, followed by an early February torch. Shades of 1980-81? No it didn't. The OP doesn't even go that far. Did you mean the EURO weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Brett Anderson posted this today. He did say this though: We do feel that the February forecast is not cold enough, especially in the central and east, based on a number of other factors that we are focused on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 No it didn't. The OP doesn't even go that far. Did you mean the EURO weeklies? I did. Sorry about the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Brett Anderson posted this today. He did say this though: We do feel that the February forecast is not cold enough, especially in the central and east, based on a number of other factors that we are focused on. Why is he putting out February forecasts on Jan 10th This has no skill, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I did. Sorry about the confusion. The euro weeklies aren't showing a torch for early feb either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 This has no skill, sorry. Neither do you, yet you still try and "forecast". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 This has no skill, sorry. Neither do you, yet you still try and "forecast". 3 week lead time forecasts aren't worth the megabytes they will subtract from my capped internet plan. I can dig up the archives and compare if we want to keep this going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 3 week lead time forecasts aren't worth the megabytes they will subtract from my capped internet plan. I can dig up the archives and compare if we want to keep this going? No one forced you to click on the thread. Get a real internet connection if you're worried about a cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 EURO insistent on amplifying a trail s/w and spinning up a storm on the arctic front around D4-5. GEM and GFS way more progressive. Used to be that even if the EURO was by itself, it's stellar record forced one to give it weight. This winter I'm not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 EURO; after this system, really dries it out around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 EURO insistent on amplifying a trail s/w and spinning up a storm on the arctic front around D4-5. GEM and GFS way more progressive. Used to be that even if the EURO was by itself, it's stellar record forced one to give it weight. This winter I'm not so sure. Its a give or take pattern coming up through next week. Progressive jetstream is going to favor a transient pattern with little room for any decent sized storms to develop. And I'm not so sure. Didnt the Euro have this past storm whereas every other model was too progressive and showed virtually nothing? I'd give it another day before making any conclusions as to whether or not, their is any storm around Day 5. All in all, the pattern looks pretty boring through Jan 20th. Maybe some small clippers but nothing noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 EURO insistent on amplifying a trail s/w and spinning up a storm on the arctic front around D4-5. GEM and GFS way more progressive. Used to be that even if the EURO was by itself, it's stellar record forced one to give it weight. This winter I'm not so sure. Its a give or take pattern coming up through next week. Progressive jetstream is going to favor a transient pattern with little room for any decent sized storms to develop. And I'm not so sure. Didnt the Euro have this past storm whereas every other model was too progressive and showed virtually nothing? I'd give it another day before making any conclusions as to whether or not, their is any storm around Day 5. All in all, the pattern looks pretty boring through Jan 20th. Maybe some small clippers but nothing noteworthy. The 18th through 20th clipper looks like a huge LES maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Clipper around hour 90 on the GFS looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Local TV forecasts are calling for highs in the upper twenties in Toronto next Friday. Judging from the Euro and GFS, those numbers could be way off. Yet again, Toronto may be caught off guard with regard to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 EURO insistent on amplifying a trail s/w and spinning up a storm on the arctic front around D4-5. GEM and GFS way more progressive. Used to be that even if the EURO was by itself, it's stellar record forced one to give it weight. This winter I'm not so sure. Only a matter of time before the GFS starts inching towards the euro, IMO. Seeing big trends on the 0z GFS regarding vort strength with the ejection out of the pac NW. Thinking the less progressive and deeper scenario has some merit a la the euro/ec ens. Something to keep an eye on at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Only a matter of time before the GFS starts inching towards the euro, IMO. Seeing big trends on the 0z GFS regarding vort strength with the ejection out of the pac NW. Thinking the less progressive and deeper scenario has some merit a la the euro/ec ens. Something to keep an eye on at least. GEM was even better. Has slowed the progression of the ul trough but it stays positively tilted just a bit too long for our purposes. Nice snowstorm from central PA up to the QC eastern townships. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 And the EURO capitulates. Forgettable winter for this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 And the EURO capitulates. Forgettable winter for this model. Not only that, but it also caved. Eh, it's had its moments. But for the most part, the king has abdicated and become just another piece of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 And the EURO capitulates. Forgettable winter for this model. Southern vort is weaker/more positively tilted. Northern branch energy digs significantly less as well. Euro really s*** the bed this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Southern vort is weaker/more positively tilted. Northern branch energy digs significantly less as well. Euro really s*** the bed this winter.Still brings in a nice clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Still brings in a nice clipper. Brings through 0.1-0.15" of QPF. Get excited at your own risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Shot after shot of cold air with the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Not only that, but it also caved. Eh, it's had its moments. But for the most part, the king has abdicated and become just another piece of guidance. Per Harry, looks like they tinkered with it one too many times. Upside is that its other moniker, Dr. No, carries a lot less weight now as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Still brings in a nice clipper. Serious question: when was the last time a clipper produced >2" for us? It seems like it's been 6 or 7 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Serious question: when was the last time a clipper produced >2" for us? It seems like it's been 6 or 7 years. Late december 2013,clipper produced widespread 3-4" amounts with 20:1 ratio type fluff following the ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Late december 2013,clipper produced widespread 3-4" amounts with 20:1 ratio type fluff following the ice storm. That was actually two separate clippers that occurred in rapid succession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 That was actually two separate clippers that occurred in rapid succession. Yeah, we haven't had a vigorous clipper in a long time as far as I can remember. I think the last decent one was back in December 08 that dropped 3-4" in the area. The clippers may look intriguing right now, but once we get closer, its like they become a dried up orange. Not very juicy! Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 That was actually two separate clippers that occurred in rapid succession. Hmmm, interesting. We usually tend to do quite well with northern branch features at this time of year as they can often trigger meso lows, easterly flow LE enhancement or even NW flow squalls. The clippers, themselves, have been pretty lame since 08-09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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