Geos Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Bring it on! Well will have 2 out of the three for sure it looks now. CFS now showing zonal flow between the 17-24th. Then another cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Toronto just doesn't have the elevation for the late season snows. There have been numerous late season snowstorms that give the surrounding areas up on the niagara escarpment 10+cm of snow in april but down by the lake its a general 2cm if that. Early april is a bit different but still difficult to get a good one. There's always a March 1870 redux. We are due after 144 years after all! http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=5051&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2013-12-10&cmdB1=Go&Year=1870&Month=3&Day=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Surprised no one posted this earlier, but nothing like a crazy run of the Euro to wake up the LR. 987 low south of IND next Saturday. Completely different from the 00z run. Clearly the models will show some huge run to run variability in this pattern. Sent from my SCH-I535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 saw 987 and thought you were joking...lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 saw 987 and thought you were joking...lock it inSurest way to catch up to the big dog lol. The GFS has a strong sub 990 system too... ~550 miles north of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 saw 987 and thought you were joking...lock it in With my storm petering out, Joe can start that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The Morch was fun, I can't say I hated it... But I really wish it happened 2 weeks later, it was a late starting and early finish to Michigan (US as a whole) snowmobile season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 There's always a March 1870 redux. We are due after 144 years after all! http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=5051&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2013-12-10&cmdB1=Go&Year=1870&Month=3&Day=6 That looks like the perfect March / April combo ... Big time snowy March followed by a MILD April (average April temps but you barely go below freezing). I love that ~50 cm storm to end it all!! Storm over and right then the mild temps start and you never really look back!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Surprised no one posted this earlier, but nothing like a crazy run of the Euro to wake up the LR. 987 low south of IND next Saturday. Completely different from the 00z run. Clearly the models will show some huge run to run variability in this pattern. Sent from my SCH-I535 Wow, lol, that's a storm to get your going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The Morch was fun, I can't say I hated it... But I really wish it happened 2 weeks later, it was a late starting and early finish to Michigan (US as a whole) snowmobile season. I had an f1 tornado go just a few miles south of me on 3-12-12 during the "Morch" I think it was around 70 something that day, closest tornado to me in a decade and was the earliest tornado in the state of michigan north of i-69 in state history! I was almost freaking out watching the TVS headed straight at me on radar lol. did a walk the next day taking pics thru the tornado's path fun stuff, glad nobody was injured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yep, something to watch but not a lot of ensemble support for a big snow but 3-5" snowfall has much better support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 6z CFS showing a torch by this winters standards between the 14th-27th now. Between 4-9° above normal across the entire subforum. Warmest near the Ohio River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Cross polar flow to be directed into the pacific. I am sensing a lot of pent up demand. My guess people in the north will go on a spending spree and max out their credit cards the 2nd half of February............... Does upper 20's weather do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I had an f1 tornado go just a few miles south of me on 3-12-12 during the "Morch" I think it was around 70 something that day, closest tornado to me in a decade and was the earliest tornado in the state of michigan north of i-69 in state history! I was almost freaking out watching the TVS headed straight at me on radar lol. did a walk the next day taking pics thru the tornado's path fun stuff, glad nobody was injured. That means the earliest tornado recorded in the last 20-30 years above I-69. Before good radar detection, most rural tornado's probably went unreported. Its amazing none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Lock in the 12z EURO please... Perfect Big Dog for Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 6z CFS showing a torch by this winters standards between the 14th-27th now. Between 4-9° above normal across the entire subforum. Warmest near the Ohio River. You certainly have turned around this winter . From pining for snow to pining for warmth. Hope you dont pull a tochartie on us next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Lock in the 12z EURO please... Perfect Big Dog for Detroit. Id like to lock it in too...but its 7-8 days out with little support at this time. And the euro isnt its old self. But who knows. It would be fitting this winter. I raved about the snowy winters from 2007-2011 because they broke snow records left, right, and center. But never...N-E-V-E-R...in my WILDEST dreams did I think we would ever get a winter like this for continuous extreme cold, continuous snowcover, and a parade of big snowstorms. To get everything to align as it has this winter is almost unprecedented, so unless that big dog comes in the next 2 months (which is VERY possible )..then when it DOES happen, it wont be in a winter as memorable as this, you can mark that down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 That means the earliest tornado recorded in the last 20-30 years above I-69. Before good radar detection, most rural tornado's probably went unreported. Its amazing none the less. OT: check out my pics if you want http://www.sm00f.com/2012-coleman-tornado.html hit several of my friends houses was a bit crazy, oh and to keep this post relevant, I have been watching the 200hr or so ggem euro and gfs there appears to be a chance at a huge phasing bomb storm or just a southern wave storm that strengthens in the area or nothing, hard to figure out yet but looks like something interesting around v-day anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Watch someone take the single run of the Euro big dog and have people start to panic for next weekend like they did with the irresponsible rumors of the previous system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Watch someone take the single run of the Euro big dog and have people start to panic for next weekend like they did with the irresponsible rumors of the previous system. I don't pay any attention to post-truncated storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 OT: check out my pics if you want http://www.sm00f.com/2012-coleman-tornado.html hit several of my friends houses was a bit crazy, oh and to keep this post relevant, I have been watching the 200hr or so ggem euro and gfs there appears to be a chance at a huge phasing bomb storm or just a southern wave storm that strengthens in the area or nothing, hard to figure out yet but looks like something interesting around v-day anyways. I bet his house is better now than before the storm, as long as nobody gets hurt and no heirlooms are lost, sometimes these are a blessing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 You certainly have turned around this winter . From pining for snow to pining for warmth. Hope you dont pull a tochartie on us next winter This winter exceeded all my expectations, now it's time to see the grass again. Haha, I'm not going to go out and buy a bunch of tropical plants and stick them in my yard! If it would just return to seasonable temperatures the rest of the month, it would be good enough. It's too cold most of the time to do anything outside. I've been inside more this winter than any of the other winters since at least 2000. I guess I have cabin fever. 12z EURO is tolerable past Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 998mb low came up on 18z GFS. Located over S WI, but placement isn't important. For right now, both GFS & Euro has something in the region next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 A potential weekend snow in Chicago. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Snowstorm from central IL through Indiana to Detroit? Seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 With my storm petering out, Joe can start that thread. LAF crush job again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 A potential weekend snow in Chicago. Book it. This weekend will be the first in about 5 that we haven't had some sort of significant system here, which means we will probably pay double next weekend. As for the Euro, yes there is little run to run consistency but I wouldn't completely discount the potential. The system that would produce this storm is currently in the western part of the Gulf Of Alaska, and extremely vigorous at that. Plus with it being close to Alaska itself, there is at least partial sampling going on. So the models aren't completely blind to the current phase of the system. Also as it looks right now, the teleconnections look to flip around that time, and when that happens usually something big comes with the pattern flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Accuweather is for the storm and a reprieve from the current state of affairs. They say right out though, that winter will return one last time in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Well, at least we know we got something to watch this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Accuweather is for the storm and a reprieve from the current state of affairs. They say right out though, that winter will return one last time in early March. Accuweather may claim to be a national forecast center, but they are extremely east coast biased. Winter will return one last time in early march? ooooh Im shaking in my boots . Outside of 2012, when is winter NOT still around in early March (or some point later) in our neck of the woods lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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