Whitelakeroy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 zzzzzzzzzz Game on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 EURO has a wave late next week, but it's pretty far south right now. Basically looks like the wave that was supposed to be this weekend. Southern IN and OH pick up the most moisture in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Turd watch..>Euro... super ridge over the west, trough over the east... might be time to take a weather model breather and check back in around the end of the month.. this is a broken record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Turd watch..>Euro... super ridge over the west, trough over the east... might be time to take a weather model breather and check back in around the end of the month.. this is a broken record. GFS shows a ridge out there in the mid/long range that lasts for around 6 days then it moves on. I think there is a decent enough model consensus to say that there is going to be some western ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Turd watch..>Euro... super ridge over the west, trough over the east... might be time to take a weather model breather and check back in around the end of the month.. this is a broken record. JB's favorite Brazilian model has YYZ getting snow til may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 PNA looks to stay negative till mid month at least. I would side with a low amplitude, progressive ridge towards the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 So the Euro had a warm-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 So the Euro had a warm-up. Compared to what it is now, it is a warm up. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 zzzzzzzzzz One of the next 2 clippers will now overperform and dump 6" on ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Game on!! I'm sure Detroit will somehow continue to get its nickels and dimes over the next 2 weeks, if nothing else.So "zzzzzzzzzz" depends on who you ask and their standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'm sure Detroit will somehow continue to get its nickels and dimes over the next 2 weeks, if nothing else. So "zzzzzzzzzz" depends on who you ask and their standards. Zzzzzz is watching each flake add to record books for snowfall and snow depth.Actually we haven't had as many nickels and dimea lately...been the big stuff...so bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Zzzzzz is watching each flake add to record books for snowfall and snow depth. Actually we haven't had as many nickels and dimea lately...been the big stuff...so bring it on. I like fresh snow just as much as anyone, but 20 inches is 20 inches.... I already have the snow and if its simply kept around, is all that matters to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z GGEM is kinda bonkers. Well worth a fantasy loop from 144 to 216 hours: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That might break the record for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That might break the record for LAF. Yeah, that might get it done. It's probably rain to snow, verbatim, but it would be rather dynamic. Alas, it's the GGEM in fantasy land...but fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 No change for Quad Cities: GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTING MAJOR REGIME CHANGE STARTING AFTER TUESDAY WITH MILDER TO MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES BY DAY 10...PROBABLY LASTING MUCH LONGER. SEE YESTERDAY PM LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR INFORMATION AS TO WHY...THE RATE OF WARM UP LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK WILL TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO BETTER (GAGE. )STILL FAVORABLE FOR MAJOR CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS RUN TO RUN AS THIS SHIFT IN REGIMES OCCURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 From WxBell: Weeklies are out. The lakes and northeast now and into the midwest are below normal through day 32 now, but the warming is developing across the south as we get into March ( starts actually mid month) Next week has well below normal temps and above normal precip through the east, but is drier though still cold in the midwest. One of these days, what is turning out to be a top10 cold winter overall for the US, perhaps even top 5..will be over. Its then when cries of winters over will be right through day 32? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 From WxBell: Weeklies are out. The lakes and northeast now and into the midwest are below normal through day 32 now, but the warming is developing across the south as we get into March ( starts actually mid month) Next week has well below normal temps and above normal precip through the east, but is drier though still cold in the midwest. One of these days, what is turning out to be a top10 cold winter overall for the US, perhaps even top 5..will be over. Its then when cries of winters over will be right through day 32? That company has done fairly well this year so it's hard to doubt them. It looks like the Euro has backed off on the mid month warm-up, as JB said it would. We've come this far - might as well secure this winter as one for the history books. I'll be ready for spring by early March, though, unless an historic storm is forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 maybe, but they still show a weak-moderate pna signature even though the ensembles show a -pna developing. something isn't firing right in the sampling imo. The polar flow should be lifting north by 29th with a trough developing in the west. Seriously should re-name this thread "Angrysummon's bump troll treasure trove LR discussion". Too many to choose from. Damn it's cold..... suppose to get to -5 tonight here with a deep snowcover.... that damn retrogression and -PNA is really doing it's dirty work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Seriously should re-name this thread "Angrysummon's bump troll treasure trove LR discussion". Too many to choose from. Damn it's cold..... suppose to get to -5 tonight here with a deep snowcover.... that damn retrogression and -PNA is really doing it's dirty work. More to it then just the PNA. I believe many mets and non mets alike have mentioned it. But yeah some ignore. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 More to it then just the PNA. I believe many mets and non mets alike have mentioned it. But yeah some ignore. lol ...and that's the point. Some just stake a claim to their idea, and pronounce the models as wrong or clueless....over and over and over...and over...again. Even when they are proven wrong over and over and over again whether it's about a single storm or a long range pattern. Everytime Angry makes a post laughing at a cold or snowy model solution, I end up either shoveling snow or throwing another log on the fire. Which is fine now, but I really hope he stops posting in about 10 days, or at least starts to tout a cold spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 ...and that's the point. Some just stake a claim to their idea, and pronounce the models as wrong or clueless....over and over and over...and over...again. Even when they are proven wrong over and over and over again whether it's about a single storm or a long range pattern. Everytime Angry makes a post laughing at a cold or snowy model solution, I end up either shoveling snow or throwing another log on the fire. Which is fine now, but I really hope he stops posting in about 10 days, or at least starts to tout a cold spring. Most on here have learned to ignore him. As for me i hope he keeps on saying it so i can nab a few records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Now while the models do show the -EPO relaxing a bit ( going slightly + ) they also now show the AO heading back towards it's negative state. This could put the screws to any ideas of a warm up till atleast sometime in March. I just hope if this does happen it does not come with a -NAO. Nothing showing that yet but yeah the concern is always there when the AO goes negative as often the NAO likes to follow suit. Those further south along i-70 would benefit from it most likely though if we get that -AO/-NAO combo even with a -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Currently EPO forecast on the EURO ensembles showing it going to +4, which is significant. GFS only brings it up to +3. The WPO, which is an influence of our weather, flips as well next week. I think the region will have a thaw out like the one we had after the first cold outbreak in January, but it will host temperatures a bit higher due to it being later in the winter. Someone is going to end up being wrong with the long range forecast. I believe JB has been lucky this winter. Previous winters he hasn't been so lucky at accurately predicting. Changes are happening in the Pacific and in what form it will effect this region is still to be seen. You can bet the models will be flip flopping before the pattern does occur though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 While I will admit that this could end up being the coldest winter in 20 years (for Toronto at least), the media really is sensationalizing this. I watched the CBS evening news this evening and they were calling this winter weird and "freakish" simply because California is in a drought and Texas is getting snow and ice, neither of which is unheard of. Patterns like this have happened before, just not in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Currently EPO forecast on the EURO ensembles showing it going to +4, which is significant. GFS only brings it up to +3. The WPO, which is an influence of our weather, flips as well next week. I think the region will have a thaw out like the one we had after the first cold outbreak in January, but it will host temperatures a bit higher due to it being later in the winter. Someone is going to end up being wrong with the long range forecast. I believe JB has been lucky this winter. Previous winters he hasn't been so lucky at accurately predicting. Changes are happening in the Pacific and in what form it will effect this region is still to be seen. You can bet the models will be flip flopping before the pattern does occur though. And as said above the AO goes negative which means the cold wont be going anywhere. To do that we would need the PNA to be a little on the positive side or neutral and the NAO to stay positive as that would force all the cold out of Canada ( PAC jet would come crashing across Canada ) and ala force the PV to the other side of the globe as we had seen in some recent winters when the AO went negative and the cold never arrived in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ofcourse as we have seen time and time again this winter the models may be struggling with everything in the extended. So yeah all is subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 And as said above the AO goes negative which means the cold wont be going anywhere. To do that we would need the PNA to be a little on the positive side or neutral and the NAO to stay positive as that would force all the cold out of Canada ( PAC jet would come crashing across Canada ) and ala force the PV to the other side of the globe as we had seen in some recent winters when the AO went negative and the cold never arrived in these parts. As it looks right now. The GFS shows the NAO staying positive, the AO is positive, but could fall, and the PNA stays negative, but could hit neutral towards Valentines Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 As it looks right now. The GFS shows the NAO staying positive, the AO is positive, but could fall, and the PNA stays negative, but could hit neutral towards Valentines Day. Yep.. The models are struggling as is always the case when there is changes in the pattern. And yes the pattern can change and it still be cold and snowy. As there is different ways to get a warmer pattern the same applies to a colder one. I admit my confidence is low. May get a bit more active but the hard part is figuring temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yep.. The models are struggling as is always the case when there is changes in the pattern. And yes the pattern can change and it still be cold and snowy. As there is different ways to get a warmer pattern the same applies to a colder one. I admit my confidence is low. May get a bit more active but the hard part is figuring temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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