Stebo Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Don S mentioned the milder/zonal pattern potential and the CFS is onboard too. Yes, the CFS for March had been above normal for most of the country for a while, and the latest runs have been actually getting warmer as we get closer to March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 JB tweeted Brazilian meteogram does not have ORD above freezing until March. So he's not on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yes, the CFS for March had been above normal for most of the country for a while, and the latest runs have been actually getting warmer as we get closer to March. lol, it's February 5. Let's hold off on calling for a Morch. CFS is as useful right now, as Geos chucking op GFS 384 hour torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 lol @ all of the chasers going crazy over the DVN AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 So that author of that piece is the same person who wrote the entire AFD this afternoon I take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 lol @ all of the chasers going crazy over the DVN AFD. making waves get them to speak at the amwx conference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'll start with this.....then read on if you want to.... 2nd week of march for any potential sustained warm up....maybe a D2 mod risk around March 10th or so (not for MBY)...tis my take on the matter looking over patterns still reading??? good....here's the rest of my thoughts... ubber troughiness will make for some wild swings leading up to that timeframe....60's might be on the plate....but so could temps in the 20's the following day.... the trend is for torch signals in models to be squashed by progressiveness as time marches forward....I don't see anything changing that for feb IMO and simply to put it out there since there is plenty to follow via short range guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'll start with this.....then read on if you want to.... 2nd week of march for any potential sustained warm up....maybe a D2 mod risk around March 10th or so (not for MBY)...tis my take on the matter looking over patterns still reading??? good....here's the rest of my thoughts... ubber troughiness will make for some wild swings leading up to that timeframe....60's might be on the plate....but so could temps in the 20's the following day.... the trend is for torch signals in models to be squashed by progressiveness as time marches forward....I don't see anything changing that for feb IMO and simply to put it out there since there is plenty to follow via short range guidance I will say the CFS is mild for the 16-22nd week, then colder until about March 3rd, then total zonal flow. March usually does come in like a Lion so I wouldn't be surprised if that is the last significant blast of wintry weather for most of the sub forum. Anyways, it looks like I might make it to 70 straights days of snow cover, after that it looks like its days are numbered. If western and central Canada thaw out, then the cold air might have a tough time surging back in after the last week of this month. Will see when we get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 OT, but this guy http://wdtinc.com/product-service/ed-berry/ used to be the sh*t...back in the day when long range forecasting was sort of voo-doo. Used to read his thoughts on DDC's website all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Amazing words from DVN today. This could lead to an active period with potential for both snow and svr wx outbreaks. The excitement continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 lol, it's February 5. Let's hold off on calling for a Morch. CFS is as useful right now, as Geos chucking op GFS 384 hour torches. Yeah I am not saying it is right or wrong, just monitoring for trends, and giving a post what the trends have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 lol, totally. Talking about feeding the weenies. That guy/gal... FWIW, Chad has been mentioning a late February flip for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Anyone that spends much of their AFD on long range projections should be fired...seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 WOW. BALLS DEEP IN SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Wow day after day of storms to track and now there is a break/rest. Yeah there maybe a little something on Sunday but really we don't have anything major in the models for us to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 So, is the consensus another clipper parade until the super ultra uber hyper mega pattern change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 So, is the consensus another clipper parade until the super ultra uber hyper mega pattern change? Seems to be the case. I don't see anything major on the 18z GFS until near the end of the run and certainly don't trust things that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Anyone that spends much of their AFD on long range projections should be fired...seriously. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think the ECMWF has got the vibe where the pattern is going in the medium term. Basically the EURO is showing the pattern being broken up slowly but surely. The transition will be gradual as the ridge in the West muscles its way eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 We have seen this show before. It's the new hotness to predict Morchs now days. Happened one time and it will result in 10 successive years of busted forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 We have seen this show before. It's the new hotness to predict Morchs now days. Happened one time and it will result in 10 successive years of busted forecasts. So I will put you down for ultra snowy and -10 departures for March as your call then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 We have seen this show before. It's the new hotness to predict Morchs now days. Happened one time and it will result in 10 successive years of busted forecasts. I haven't read anyone predict a Morch yet. Being that we have only had one March since the 2012 torch I'm not quite sure how you can claim that predicting a Morch is the new norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'd argue it would be difficult to impossible to successfully predict the next Morch. Going above average is one thing but who in their right mind would call for something of that magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 So I will put you down for ultra snowy and -10 departures for March as your call then? I'm not saying that..... But any prediction made this far out is bound to be nothing more than luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I hope any torch holds off until March 1st. I want all the winter months to average below normal temperature-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Seems like the Feb 8-10 storm is DOA (aside from nuisance snow) and the 132-144 storm appears as though it'll be suppressed. Any other threat is beyond 180 hours. Been a while since we've had this kind of down time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'm not saying that..... But any prediction made this far out is bound to be nothing more than luck. Well I don't know about others but I didn't read that as predicting a torch either, it did say a change from what we have been experiencing and did mention some specifics which I don't particularly agree with, but I wouldn't immediately discount it as being a stab at luck. As Harry stated in the spring thread there are some things that are hinting at a change, obviously though it isn't like a plug and play type setup. One thing can be certain though, if we maintain this active pattern, when we do flip the temps, there is going to be problems with severe and especially flooding, the latter of the two being the bigger issue considering the massive snow pack and frozen lakes/river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Operational models have been hinting at a chance for a warm up in the 10 day period for awhile now (minus the two days I was without internet.) The 02/06 0z of the GFS ensembles don't really hint at it whatsoever. Above normal temps will come, but for most of this subfourm I would say it will hold off until around March 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 EURO stirs the pot with that wave midweek next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 zzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.