Stebo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is going to completely flatten this later potential. I don't buy the amount of confluence left behind this Feb 4-5 system, it would make more sense if it were a huge system to leave some confluence behind but Euro isn't overly spectacular with it. Euro is really falling from grace lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The CFS weeklies for the next 4 weeks are for below normal temps and above normal precip, and the CFS for March is more of the same. That model needs to be taken with a grain of salt whether its June or January a week out or 6 months out. But its just crazy to think about. I that comes close to fruition, not only are we rewriting the history books, we may even give a few of that winter of 1780 or whatever it was a run for its money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The CFS weeklies for the next 4 weeks are for below normal temps and above normal precip, and the CFS for March is more of the same. That model needs to be taken with a grain of salt whether its June or January a week out or 6 months out. But its just crazy to think about. I that comes close to fruition, not only are we rewriting the history books, we may even give a few of that winter of 1780 or whatever it was a run for its money I seriously hope that's wrong, I know some here would extend winter and snowstorms into June if they could, but I'm already starting to look at the long range with that feeling where a torch would make me just as happy as a snowstorm....pretty soon the former will start making me happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If there's ever a year to hope for a late Spring, it's this one. I think it would be real interesting to see how long we could keep snowcover and iced over lakes with a cold Spring since we have such thick ice on the lakes and deep snowcover over a large portion of the northern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The CFS weeklies for the next 4 weeks are for below normal temps and above normal precip, and the CFS for March is more of the same. That model needs to be taken with a grain of salt whether its June or January a week out or 6 months out. But its just crazy to think about. I that comes close to fruition, not only are we rewriting the history books, we may even give a few of that winter of 1780 or whatever it was a run for its money Models struggle with pattern changes ... you know I hope the cold continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If there's ever a year to hope for a late Spring, it's this one. I think it would be real interesting to see how long we could keep snowcover and iced over lakes with a cold Spring since we have such thick ice on the lakes and deep snowcover over a large portion of the northern US. Very true ... I will admit that by the end of March I will be ready for Above normal temps but I would love the cold and snow to continue well into March this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Have been paying attention to the EURO and GFS in the medium to long term period. From what I can see it looks like things start to shift around towards Valentines Day. We're losing our cold teleconnections one by one and the 0z run of the EURO shows a severing of the cross polar flow. Cold starts gathering in Alaska & NW Canada next week. Bubble of above normal temperatures starts to expand north of our sub forum. By Days 12-15 the warmer anomolies have expanded while Alaska gets put into the freezer. Below normal temps across the eastern US are likely due to the snow cover that will be present. The 12z EURO today shows the shift as well in the same time frame. 210 > 240 hours If this comes to pass then it is going to be a horrible failure by the CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 To be honest, I would prefer it if February ended up below normal temperature-wise. I can't remember the last time that every month between November and February ended up below normal in these parts. The long range isn't looking all that cold for my area though. I'm wondering if I'll get down to -5F one last time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Even if we get some kind of warmup it doesnt mean Feb will be above average temp-wise. Hoping we stay right in the freezer. Too epic of a winter to get a Feb torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z GEFS keep it colder than normal through days 11-15. But certainly a pull back of the CONUS wide cold anomalies towards the end. I wouldn't unpack the shorts and baby oil quite yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The long range forecasters on the New England thread have been talking about the possible development of a -NAO and possible period of +PNA to prevent an all out torch even as the EPO goes positive (trough in Gulf of Alaska), but expect this to again only be a brief relaxation of the prevailing -EPO. Also keep in mind that February only has 28 days so if we're well below normal by mid month and have 1 week thaw then cool down again to close the month, it's highly likely to finish below normal for the month. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The long range forecasters on the New England thread have been talking about the possible development of a -NAO and possible period of +PNA to prevent an all out torch even as the EPO goes positive (trough in Gulf of Alaska), but expect this to again only be a brief relaxation of the prevailing -EPO. Also keep in mind that February only has 28 days so if we're well below normal by mid month and have 1 week thaw then cool down again to close the month, it's highly likely to finish below normal for the month. Sent from my SCH-I535 Those guys are pretty good in the SNE forum. Things may shuffle around a bit...but it doesn't look like an all out furnace anytime soon. I agree that February will most likely finish colder. As it should, in this exceptional winter for cold and snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The long range forecasters on the New England thread have been talking about the possible development of a -NAO and possible period of +PNA to prevent an all out torch even as the EPO goes positive (trough in Gulf of Alaska), but expect this to again only be a brief relaxation of the prevailing -EPO. Also keep in mind that February only has 28 days so if we're well below normal by mid month and have 1 week thaw then cool down again to close the month, it's highly likely to finish below normal for the month. Sent from my SCH-I535 If we do get a -NAO i don't think it will be till late in the month/March. The GOA low can be a great thing ( hyper active storm track as system after system rolls into the west coast ) or very bad and thus see recent winters prior to this. One thing that would help us is keeping most of Canada cold ( not just nw ) so we have a source to draw from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If we do get a -NAO i don't think it will be till late in the month/March. The GOA low can be a great thing ( hyper active storm track as system after system rolls into the west coast ) or very bad and thus see recent winters prior to this. One thing that would help us is keeping most of Canada cold ( not just nw ) so we have a source to draw from. It's that cross polar flow that is keeping the cold air coming. If that shuts down with the same teleconnections as now, then look out. I see there is a west based block on the EURO, but that usually directs the coldest air towards New England. Will have to factor any possible effects from the MJO next week. Personally I think the last half of February will be more tame in terms of temperatures. The month should be below normal, but not like what the CFS is showing. All patterns eventually burn themselves out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 IMO looks like we're going to make a run at returning to the NW flow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 IMO looks like we're going to make a run at returning to the NW flow pattern. Agreed. Looks like first clip. on Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It's that cross polar flow that is keeping the cold air coming. If that shuts down with the same teleconnections as now, then look out. I see there is a west based block on the EURO, but that usually directs the coldest air towards New England. Will have to factor any possible effects from the MJO next week. Personally I think the last half of February will be more tame in terms of temperatures. The month should be below normal, but not like what the CFS is showing. All patterns eventually burn themselves out... your keyboard to God's ears... I'll be ready in about 10 days to pack up my snow weenie...maybe one more nice one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It's that cross polar flow that is keeping the cold air coming. If that shuts down with the same teleconnections as now, then look out. I see there is a west based block on the EURO, but that usually directs the coldest air towards New England. Will have to factor any possible effects from the MJO next week. Personally I think the last half of February will be more tame in terms of temperatures. The month should be below normal, but not like what the CFS is showing. All patterns eventually burn themselves out... No, a west based block is likely going to mean alternating cold and dry and warm and dry periods. I know you want wintery weather to end if we don't get any more big snows, but I don't think it will come to an abrupt end, more likely die a slow death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 No, a west based block is likely going to mean alternating cold and dry and warm and dry periods. I know you want wintery weather to end if we don't get any more big snows, but I don't think it will come to an abrupt end, more likely die a slow death. The resulting weather pattern from the different teleconnections; apart from the Pacific ones, has been unpredictable. Right now with the +NAO and negative PNA you would think that it would be mild or at least seasonable. Winter will end and mild spells will increase in frequency, but spring can't come soon enough now. EURO still showing the western Lakes getting a break after Tuesday next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 When it warms up, i hope it comes in quick while we still have all this snow. Would love to see some crazy fog as a Morch tries to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 When it warms up, i hope it comes in quick while we still have all this snow. Would love to see some crazy fog as a Morch tries to move in. Would make for some good flooding too if the melt is quick. Snowpack well over a foot now. It's dense too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yeah that is always interesting to watch unfold - in what form the melt down comes. Cloudy/foggy, rainstorm, mild/windy, or just sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 DVN Dropping Bombs attn: Geos MAJOR REGIME CHANGE STARTING DAYS 5 INTO DAY 10 NORMALLY SUGGESTMAJOR CHANGES IN SOLUTIONS AND PREDICTABILITY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.THIS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS ALONG WEST COASTWITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AT/BEYOND DAY 10 FOR CENTRAL US. THEMAGNITUDE OF ENERGY CHANGES IN THE PACIFIC ARE AMONG THE HIGHESTI HAVE SEEN OVER A 5 DAY PERIOD USING MULTIPLE SOURCES IN 35 YEARSOF ANALYSIS. THE MEANING...THIS WILL NOT BE A MINOR CHANGE ANDSHOULD RESULT IN MAJOR TEMP/MOISTURE CHANGES LASTING MANY WEEKSAND QUITE POSSIBLY MONTHS. TELECONNECTION WEIGHTING SUPPORTS MAYRESULT IN AN ACTIVE SPRING...MUCH MORE TYPICAL THAN WHAT HAPPENEDLAST YEAR WHICH THIS AUTHOR CORRECTLY ASSESSED WOULD HAPPEN LASTWINTER. THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN KEY INDICES USED INTELECONNECTION TECHNIQUES NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS DUE TO THIS REGIMECHANGE. THIS WILL BE QUITE EDUCATIONAL TO MONITOR. THE REGIME WEARE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR...FAVORABLY SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 50S ANDPOSSIBLY 60S AT TIMES BY LATE IN THE MONTH...QUITE A CHANGE FROMPAST 2 MONTHS. THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION WILL SEEIMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THIS MAYCONTINUE BASED ON ANALOGS AND STATISTICAL WEIGHTING INTELECONNECTIONS LOCALLY USED BY THIS AUTHOR...FOR MUCH OF THEEARLY TO MID SPRING...POSITIVE IMPACTS TO WESTERN DROUGHT...HIGHPW/S WOULD SUPPORT FLOODING RISKS THOUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 DVN Dropping Bombs Sounds like a modest chap. And gives Geos hope that winter is over in 5-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Sounds like a modest chap. And gives Geos hope that winter is over in 5-10 days. yeah that was something, he/she should board here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 yeah that was something, he/she should board here. lol, totally. Talking about feeding the weenies. That guy/gal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 DVN Dropping Bombs attn: Geos FWIW I do agree on the potential active spring going forward. Maybe not quite to the point of mentioning 50s-60s by the end of the month but I do think we warm up toward the end of the month to above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 WOW. BALLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Don S mentioned the milder/zonal pattern potential and the CFS is onboard too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 DVN Dropping Bombs attn: Geos Thanks for sharing. Sounds epic. The Western states will be really happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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