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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


Chicago Storm

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I like the Southern portions of the subforum and the OV for the majority of the wave train...with perhaps the caboose finally getting some cut to it as a ridge sets up for the GL to get buried with the system Alek is referring to IMO....

 

In other words, I think the baro zone will be souther for the start of the wave train....

 

clearly I hope I'm wrong....but just my thoughts

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we're gonna get buried

 

 

you're mind screwing with me this am on no sleep lol..     who is this Alek..  I'm trying to get on board but I'm just not feeling it yet here..  I like south and east still until given reason not to think otherwise.   Which is fine with me..  Been a good winter for a snow cover diva like me.   Any snow warning storm would just be icing..   Just keep it cold through March and let the pieces fall where they may.  I had 2007/08 and still appreciate it along with GHD even tho i bitched all night in the storm thread because of the wind lmaooo.

 

gonna be the usual model mayhem until things get sorted better and we all get a true feel. 

 

Last winter at this time we didn't even have 10" of snow yet lmaoo...  can't zzz or b**ch after the last two stinkers.

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I like the Southern portions of the subforum and the OV for the majority of the wave train...with perhaps the caboose finally getting some cut to it as a ridge sets up for the GL to get buried with the system Alek is referring to IMO....

 

In other words, I think the baro zone will be souther for the start of the wave train....

 

clearly I hope I'm wrong....but just my thoughts

 

 

i'm only talking about the potential big dog being shown in the med range in here (wave train being talked about in Joe's thread looks perfect for our area btw)...but I have a totally different concern than you. The potential major event looks to check just about every box for hard left turn (SE ridge, open gulf, explosive baroclinic zone, sw going neg title over the plains, etc). I just hope the antecedent airmass has some muscle because it could be a good one. Definitely a setup where you want to be on the northern fringe of the guidance.

 

EDIT: I see bowme favoring S as well.

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i'm only talking about the potential big dog being shown in the med range in here (wave train being talked about in Joe's thread looks perfect for our area btw)...but I have a totally different concern than you. The potential major event looks to check just about every box for hard left turn (SE ridge, open gulf, explosive baroclinic zone, sw going neg title over the plains, etc). I just hope the antecedent airmass has some muscle because it could be a good one. Definitely a setup where you want to be on the northern fringe of the guidance.

 

EDIT: I see bowme favoring S as well.

 

 

 

left turns left the building years ago :(    hence detroit specials

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I'm liking the looks of my last monday better.

 

2r4pzqa.jpg

 

We need a couple frankie and cromartie green house collapser snow events yet.

Not fair...If i didn't have 20 kids i'd be there :flood:  Except i only go to the nude resorts  :snorkle:   Heavy snow here?  We get fairy dust events...  Saukville?  Didn't he move away?  I can't imagine he lives here anymore after this winter :) 

 

Oh well...summer isn't any better around here. Trapped inside with the AC running 24/7.  

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i'm only talking about the potential big dog being shown in the med range in here (wave train being talked about in Joe's thread looks perfect for our area btw)...but I have a totally different concern than you. The potential major event looks to check just about every box for hard left turn (SE ridge, open gulf, explosive baroclinic zone, sw going neg title over the plains, etc). I just hope the antecedent airmass has some muscle because it could be a good one. Definitely a setup where you want to be on the northern fringe of the guidance.

 

EDIT: I see bowme favoring S as well.

 

I agree on the Big Dog 100% ... signals are flying pretty good with little in the way of red flags at the moment

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I wouldn't expect any threat of rain for at least 10 days!

 

AO at -2.61, NAO at 0.42, and PNA at 0.26 today.

 

I think the chances of a eastern Lakes cutter or panhandler are pretty high next week.

For north of I-80 i agree...areas south in Indiana and Ohio will probably have mixing concerns whenever the main wave ejects out.

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After today, I may not see 20F until after Feb 15th...

 

NWS jumping on board...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=arx&storyid=99813&source=0

When does the pattern break?

 

Both the 0z and more so the 12z NAEFS continues to show a breakdown in the cold core of this area (but remains to the east of here)>..possibly a pattern change?  Who knows..but its got to end some time.

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too early for a thread?

 

The GFS has had it in some form every run for about 5 days now, and tonight's GGEM GDPS is a big snow-maker for many (the run ends with a 995 mb Low in northeast Ohio)

 

I would give it another day personally. This thread is good for now to discuss it, the hot hand of the year will make the thread probably tomorrow.

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