Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I doubt it. I know. I was just joking given Toronto seems to be missing the snow events this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 0c line is just at the S tip of the LOT CWA. Marginal temps are awfully close on this one. When I start seeing that snow/rain line that close this far out, I don't have a whole lot of confidence. We'll watch the next few runs and see what happens. 2m temps never get above 20º for that storm in LOT's CWA...via the 0z GFS. But, silly to be even talking specifics this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I know. I was just joking given Toronto seems to be missing the snow events this year. Frankly, I think Toronto a better chance of getting a decent snowfall from this system than Detroit does seeing 12" from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 2m temps never get above 20º for that storm in LOT's CWA...via the 0z GFS. But, silly to be even talking specifics this far out. I did see that, on the 0z run, the rain/snow line is much farther south than depicted on the 18z. It kind of bears watching, however. I have learned that when marginal temps start to make an appearance.... But, you are right, it is still a week out, so can't really talk specifics. Plenty of cold air in place, so that is a good thing. At least temps aren't marginal at the start of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Frankly, I think Toronto a better chance of getting a decent snowfall from this system than Detroit does seeing 12" from it. Eh, its our winter this year, anything can and will happen. If this storm does materialize, I would love for it to wrap up before 11:59pm January 31st. Detroit could finish the month with about 4 feet of snow. Which is somewhere between unprecedented and nearly impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 More of the same...wants to move the core of the cold west, but keeps us all in the fun... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014012600_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If anyone wants a laugh, take a look at the NAM snow maps for the Southeast. I give that about a 0.000000001% of verifying but it hilarious to even think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If anyone wants a laugh, take a look at the NAM snow maps for the Southeast. I give that about a 0.000000001% of verifying but it hilarious to even think about it. 6" in the western panhandle, nice. NOLA does well too. It'd be awesome if that would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 if the gulf coast is gonna get snow, a high quality arctic outbreak is the time to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Purely hypothetical, but I'd hate to be a snow weenie sitting in SC that gets fringed/barely whiffed by that band. How many chances do you get down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Purely hypothetical, but I'd hate to be a snow weenie sitting in SC that gets fringed/barely whiffed by that band. How many chances do you get down there? A band like that, might need a few lifetimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 6" in the western panhandle, nice. NOLA does well too. It'd be awesome if that would happen. 1:26 12z NAM clown.gif Chad is all over it on his blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Chad is all over it on his blog. What a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Frankly, I think Toronto a better chance of getting a decent snowfall from this system than Detroit does seeing 12" from it. Toronto and decent snowfall should never be in the same sentence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z Euro looks like it wants to do yet another STL to LAF/Indy special in the Feb 3-4 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Newest 5 day mean departures - GFS. SE ridge influence more evident now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 6" in the western panhandle, nice. NOLA does well too. It'd be awesome if that would happen. 1:26 12z NAM clown.gif FWIW, that area is under a winter storm watch. NWS being conservative with snow amounts but hitting the ice potential fairly hard ... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... .AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VERY COLD AIR STREAMING IN BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET...WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z Euro looks like it wants to do yet another STL to LAF/Indy special in the Feb 3-4 time frame. lets hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 folks live in Sunset Beach, NC.....winterstorm watch for them....possibility of over 3" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Winter storm watch for the Big Easy. 2" possible with freezing rain and sleet to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I can see things going to hell in a handbasket after that first inch................. lol... no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 FWIW, that area is under a winter storm watch. NWS being conservative with snow amounts but hitting the ice potential fairly hard ... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... .AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VERY COLD AIR STREAMING IN BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET...WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. Yeah, but what's Chad got for them? That dude loves to hype up events outside of our area. I'm not sure why though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 PNA now down to 0.34, AO -0.6, NAO +1.14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 just about every model has a decent sw ejecting across the region on the 4/5, something to watch after Joe's wave train. RC on the event in question BEYOND DAY 7...PATTERN MAY BECOME EVEN MORE INTERESTING AS WESTERNTROUGH DEEPENS (-PNA) AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT + JET STREAM ENERGYEMANATING FROM DESERT SOUTHWEST COULD ENABLE A STRONGER MOREMOISTURE LADEN DISTURBANCE TO FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THECOUNTRY BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. CONTINUED RIDGING UP TO ALASKA WILLLIKELY TO KEEP COLD AIR DISCHARGE GOING INTO CENTRAL CONUS...SO ANYSYSTEM LIKELY TO HAVE COLD AIR AND A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE TO WORKWITH DUE TO AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. STAYTUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 just about every model has a decent sw ejecting across the region on the 4/5, something to watch after Joe's wave train. RC on the event in question Nothing but good news in that snippet for both of us locally. I'd love to see a system hit the baroclinic zone that is going to set up. If we thought the rich were rich already wait until we get a moisture laden storm rolling through the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 yep. definitely not zzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 yep. definitely not zzzzzz No it is zzzzzz from you, until it is snowing and we have Winter Storm Warnings up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 yep. definitely not zzzzzz GHD storm day is going down to zzzzzz with the worms? If a zzzzzz pattern delivered to chicago I can't imagine what's going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 most of the 6z GEFS have a high impact storm during this period EDIT: just about every model out there has something impacting a good portion of the center of the country during this period. The combination of WSW flow on the heels of a prolonged cold period definitely hints at ice potential as well. (remember the ice event during the last thaw with 2m temps in the 40s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 rap them good gefs in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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