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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


Chicago Storm

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The 0c line is just at the S tip of the LOT CWA.  Marginal temps are awfully close on this one.  When I start seeing that snow/rain line that close this far out, I don't have a whole lot of confidence.  We'll watch the next few runs and see what happens.

 

2m temps never get above 20º for that storm in LOT's CWA...via the 0z GFS. But, silly to be even talking specifics this far out.

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2m temps never get above 20º for that storm in LOT's CWA...via the 0z GFS. But, silly to be even talking specifics this far out.

I did see that, on the 0z run, the rain/snow line is much farther south than depicted on the 18z.  It kind of bears watching, however.  I have learned that when marginal temps start to make an appearance.... But, you are right, it is still a week out, so can't really talk specifics.  Plenty of cold air in place, so that is a good thing.  At least temps aren't marginal at the start of things.

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Frankly, I think Toronto a better chance of getting a decent snowfall from this system than Detroit does seeing 12" from it. 

Eh, its our winter this year, anything can and will happen. If this storm does materialize, I would love for it to wrap up before 11:59pm January 31st. Detroit could finish the month with about 4 feet of snow. Which is somewhere between unprecedented and nearly impossible.

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If anyone wants a laugh, take a look at the NAM snow maps for the Southeast. I give that about a 0.000000001% of verifying but it hilarious to even think about it.

 

6" in the western panhandle, nice. NOLA does well too. It'd be awesome if that would happen.

 

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6" in the western panhandle, nice. NOLA does well too. It'd be awesome if that would happen.

 

attachicon.gif1:26 12z NAM clown.gif

 

FWIW, that area is under a winter storm watch.  NWS being conservative with snow amounts but hitting the ice potential fairly hard

 

...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH  EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST  GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA  PANHANDLE...    
.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY  NIGHT...WITH VERY COLD AIR STREAMING IN BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY AND  TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND  THIS RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.  ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF  AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT  AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR  CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET...WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM A QUARTER  TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN  DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  
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FWIW, that area is under a winter storm watch.  NWS being conservative with snow amounts but hitting the ice potential fairly hard

 

...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH  EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST  GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA  PANHANDLE...    
.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY  NIGHT...WITH VERY COLD AIR STREAMING IN BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY AND  TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND  THIS RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.  ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF  AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT  AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR  CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET...WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM A QUARTER  TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN  DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  

 

Yeah, but what's Chad got for them? :lol:

 

That dude loves to hype up events outside of our area. I'm not sure why though.

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just about every model has a decent sw ejecting across the region on the 4/5, something to watch after Joe's wave train.

 

RC on the event in question

 

 

 

BEYOND DAY 7...PATTERN MAY BECOME EVEN MORE INTERESTING AS WESTERN
TROUGH DEEPENS (-PNA) AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT + JET STREAM ENERGY
EMANATING FROM DESERT SOUTHWEST COULD ENABLE A STRONGER MORE
MOISTURE LADEN DISTURBANCE TO FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. CONTINUED RIDGING UP TO ALASKA WILL
LIKELY TO KEEP COLD AIR DISCHARGE GOING INTO CENTRAL CONUS...SO ANY
SYSTEM LIKELY TO HAVE COLD AIR AND A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE TO WORK
WITH DUE TO AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. STAY
TUNED.
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just about every model has a decent sw ejecting across the region on the 4/5, something to watch after Joe's wave train.

 

RC on the event in question

Nothing but good news in that snippet for both of us locally. I'd love to see a system hit the baroclinic zone that is going to set up. If we thought the rich were rich already wait until we get a moisture laden storm rolling through the region.  :snowwindow:

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most of the 6z GEFS have a high impact storm during this period

 

EDIT: just about every model out there has something impacting a good portion of the center of the country during this period.

 

The combination of WSW flow on the heels of a prolonged cold period definitely hints at ice potential as well. (remember the ice event during the last thaw with 2m temps in the 40s)

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