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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Cold temps bring more snow than warm ones..... I want to add to this glacier.

Sent from my HTC6435LVW

Assuming any of it survives this weekend's rains

Oh, it will. There is too much to melt, the rain will soak into the snow pack. It just won't be as pretty as it is now. I plan on a solid ride tomorrow, it will be total crap after Monday. Thankfully I'm heading to the Keweenaw the following Friday.

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I see potential creeping up in the next 7 to 10 days...jet needs to clean itself up in eastern asia/western Pac....also seeing the split in the western pac gives me the "meh" feeling for now....but it should regain it's "oomph" soon...just a little hungover, fat, and lazy from the holidays laugh.gif ... Watching to see if some aggressive eastern Asian clipper-type systems can smooth out/reinforce that jet as it enters the pac...

 

post-5865-0-54687400-1389282713_thumb.gi
 

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Wow. 12z GFs is calling for a full blown torch for the second half of winter. :axe:  :frostymelt:

 

To me it just looks similar to the end of November beginning of December timeframe....pattern resetting itself. Remember what the late november LR models where showing for torches in December?  They didn't really pan out.  I expect the verification to be more muted (in the torch department) compared to what LR models are forecasting...Clipper parade and progressive cutters will be the norm towards the latter half of January into February.....IMO

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Will JB, Dr. Dewpoint and Ryan Maue be right about a return to a cold pattern for the lakes and northeast after the thaw, or have we seen the worst that this winter has to offer?

Well since Chicago had its seventh snowiest week on record and experienced cold not seen years climatology dictates we have. Nevertheless, it's still January 9 so plenty of winter left.

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Well since Chicago had its seventh snowiest week on record and experienced cold not seen years climatology dictates we have. Nevertheless, it's still January 9 so plenty of winter left.

We'll see. Historically some of the coldest outbreaks have come towards the end of January, beginning of February. February 1934 redux anyone? :devilsmiley:

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Thought it was pretty sweet until I saw that. Must be bl problems. Thanks for the maps KokomoWx!

After reviewing some wxbell euro maps, looks like some BL issues with the onset of precip before low level cold air works in and it changes over to all snow. The euro verbatim would be a nice 10-15cm back end thump after the changeover.

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Willing to bet that 4 days from now the track will be right over my head. The track shown now on the Euro is basically where the weekebd storm started and we all know where that went.

 

Good news for you is that the Euro was real consistent with the last storm and was showing a track near Cincinnati well before any of the other models even showed a storm. The storm had a slight NW adjustment, but it wasn't more than 50 miles. 

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