Shsg Falls Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Before and during the arctic outbreak a few days ago the GFS MOS forecasts for many sites in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes showed overcast skies for the duration of the outbreak. However, unless directly effected by lake effect, skies were mostly clear. Even after the pronounced clearing line with the beginning of the significant cold air advection on Sunday, the GFS MOS continued to forecast overcast skies (seemed to be stratocumulus) while skies stayed clear. A good example of this were sites in Ohio. Why did this happen? I know statistical guidance can do some weird stuff as the weather deviates from climatological norms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Before and during the arctic outbreak a few days ago the GFS MOS forecasts for many sites in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes showed overcast skies for the duration of the outbreak. However, unless directly effected by lake effect, skies were mostly clear. Even after the pronounced clearing line with the beginning of the significant cold air advection on Sunday, the GFS MOS continued to forecast overcast skies (seemed to be stratocumulus) while skies stayed clear. A good example of this were sites in Ohio. Why did this happen? I know statistical guidance can do some weird stuff as the weather deviates from climatological norms. If you have specific date/cycle/station or can copy paste report(s) here, I can pass it on to MOS folks. There were issues with the way it handled temps for the outbreak too, X/N, for stations where the cold advection caused anomalous diurnal highs/lows too..that they're looking into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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