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January 11-12 Rain Soaker


Baroclinic Zone

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While it's been great to have 17" of snow in the past 4 or so weeks, it's the continuation of this rainy/snow/RAIN pattern that is giving this winter a B-/C+ so far in my book.  I could give a crap about the record breaking cold brought on by that recently discovered nuisance, the polar vortex.  It all means crap when it's 50's and pouring 3 days later.

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This looks friggin awesome with a high prob of verifying

THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER
ROBUST WITH GFS INDICATING A 100 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. ECMWF MORE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL HAS 80-
85 KT LOW LEVEL JET. GEFS ENSEMBLES FORECASTING +3SD LOW LEVEL JET
AND PWAT ANOMALY WHICH IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME RANGE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. IN
FACT...PROBS FOR GREATER THAN 1" HAVE INCREASED TO 60-70 PERCENT.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE 50S SAT NIGHT AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 60 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHICH
WOULD ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS.

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Well, I'm all for deep deep snowcover at this time of year, but right now, I'm thankful for this week's meltdown and upcoming few days of warmer weather.  Need to get my freakin' roof done and trying to schedule around these snow events has been rough.  Get the roof done, then LET IT SNOW! :sled:  :sled:  :sled: :sled:  

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This looks friggin awesome with a high prob of verifying

THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER

ROBUST WITH GFS INDICATING A 100 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVING

INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. ECMWF MORE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL HAS 80-

85 KT LOW LEVEL JET. GEFS ENSEMBLES FORECASTING +3SD LOW LEVEL JET

AND PWAT ANOMALY WHICH IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME RANGE

INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. IN

FACT...PROBS FOR GREATER THAN 1" HAVE INCREASED TO 60-70 PERCENT.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE 50S SAT NIGHT AND WOULD NOT BE

SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 60 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHICH

WOULD ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS.

Umm.  Yeah.  Awesome.  Awesome time to slip into the coffin for a few days eventually coming out when it's over.

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Oh its a cutter. You don't get into the 50s on a coastal storm. Even with no cold air available.

figured as much-although in the models it looked more like an inland runner vs something that went to the eastern lakes...what do you see the path as and where's the heaviest QPF?

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I think your sarcasm detector needs a new battery

 

edit- sarcasm only on the awesome part

This will verify methinks

lol.

Oh, I definitely know where Dave was at with that. 

 

I am guessing with the exception of some wind fetish folks, not many here are too psyched about this little ordeal incoming for the weekend. 

 

...The weekend makes it 2x awesome.  Nothing like not really being able to even take advantage of the steamy temps without the rain getting in the way.  Thumbs up for all!

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