Mikehobbyst Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Looks like a 45-55 degree temp thaw on Saturday, with a 3-4 hour window of 25-30 mph sustained SSE winds with gusts to 45-50 mph. 850 and 925 mb winds above 65-70 knots. Heavy rain and strong winds possible as modeled now. Winds look stronger than last cutter which had 35-40 mph gusts. Potholes and roads like the moon will be common this spring. Cyclical freeze annd thaws, means many more potholes. Discuss. Behind cutter nice looking Sunday w/ 45-50 degree highs. Looks like a S. Screamer to a potent Miller B snow/blizzard chance around MLK weekend. Split and displaced PV revisited again too. Gas, stabilizer and earplugs on stand-by for snowblow opptys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The roads are already a minefield, Monday killed the FDR and Bronx River Pkwy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Looks like a 45-55 degree temp thaw on Saturday, with a 3-4 hour window of 25-30 mph sustained SSE winds with gusts to 45-50 mph. 850 and 925 mb winds above 65-70 knots. Heavy rain and strong winds possible as modeled now. Winds look stronger than last cutter which had 35-40 mph gusts. Potholes and roads like the moon will be common this spring. Cyclical freeze annd thaws, means many more potholes. Discuss. Behind cutter nice looking Sunday w/ 45-50 degree highs. Looks like a S. Screamer to a potent Miller B snow/blizzard chance around MLK weekend. Split and displaced PV revisited again too. Gas, stabilizer and earplugs on stand-by for snowblow opptys. So should we expect our leaf out in May or June this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The 12z GFS shows 80kt+ 925mb winds over the area. But there's a low-level inversion that will keep most of those winds from mixing down to surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 From Twitter... A certain European model has some very impressive gusts for the NYC area (especially LI and CT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The QPF for this event looks to be at least 1" to 1.5"+ So far the 12z GGEM is leading the pack with 1.5"+ for NNJ and 2.0"+ for the city and Long Island. It will be interesting to see if the rainfall reaches excessive levels and what impacts if any that it will have on the frozen rivers. The 12z GEFS ensemble mean was 1.5"+ for all areas which is pretty impressive for a low resolution ensemble mean. Edited at 4:30PM to show latest information HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY358 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-092100-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-358 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERNCONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR...ICE JAM FLOODING ALONG LOCAL AREA RIVERS CAUSED BY HEAVY RAIN...TEMPERATURESRISING SHARPLY THROUGH THE 50S...AND MELTING ICE.WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING CAUSED BY HEAVY RAIN...TEMPERATURES RISINGSHARPLY THROUGH THE 50S...AND FROZEN GROUND SLOWLY THAWINGRESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF.STRONG TO HIGH WINDS...MAINLY EAST OF NEW YORK CITY ACROSS LONGISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHERESOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH COULD GUST TO AT LEAST 50 MPH.THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS COULD RESULT FROM THE COMBINATION OF A STRONGLARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY RETREATING OFFSHORE AS AN INTENSIFYINGLOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A COLDFRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Edited 8:38AM 1/9/14 HPC now has the area under a slight risk of excessive rainfall on day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 This is beginning to look like a high impact event for the area. Most of the guidance is in good agreement on multiple convective waves crossing the area beginning with late Friday night and lasting through most of the day on Saturday. If the 12z 4k NAM is correct a fire hose type feature will cross the area between 15z and 21z Saturday. The 4k NAM drops a quick 3-4"+ of rain in a narrow band centered right over I-95. The NAM also has surface winds of 75MPH plus just south of JFK valid 21z Saturday. PWAT's look to get above 1.5" which is extremely anomalous for January. The combination of potentially excessive rainfall, melting snow/ice and a frozen ground could promote high run off and flash flooding potential along with a river flooding threat for NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 This is beginning to look like a high impact event for the area. Most of the guidance is in good agreement on multiple convective waves crossing the area beginning with late Friday night and lasting through most of the day on Saturday. If the 12z 4k NAM is correct a fire hose type feature will cross the area between 15z and 21z Saturday. The 4k NAM drops a quick 3-4"+ of rain in a narrow band centered right over I-95. The NAM also has surface winds of 75MPH plus just south of JFK valid 21z Saturday. PWAT's look to get above 1.5" which is extremely anomalous for January. The combination of potentially excessive rainfall, melting snow/ice and a frozen ground could promote high run off and flash flooding potential along with a river flooding threat for NJ. Like most heavy rainfall events for the tristate its going to be NYC into jersey and up to the hudson valley/ catskills that get the brunt of the moisture. I can almost guarantee that LI will be light-moderate rainfall in comparison to west of us while we get the headlines for the wind part of the storm. Cannot tell you how many times LI was shown as a bulls eye and inland ends up getting the most. Not a wishcast more of a typical scenario for these types of events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 The 12z ECMWF is over 2" of rain for far NNJ and over 2.5" of rain for parts of NJ. HPC following through now with day 2 risk of excessive rainfall Edited at 4:55PM 1/9/14 for 18z RGEM The 18z RGEM continues the trend of being super amplified and brings a tremendous surge of moisture into the entire eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 noaa briefing out, tons of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Blue wave how are coastal winds looking HWW or advisory? It could push allot of ice onshore on the south shore! Could be pretty cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Does anyone think that temps may bust low and struggle to rise above freezing in Northwest NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Does anyone think that temps may bust low and struggle to rise above freezing in Northwest NJ? Considering flood watches are up to the VT/Canada border with temps in the 40s I highly doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Considering flood watches are up to the VT/Canada border with temps in the 40s I highly doubt it.It's going to pour In caribou Maine in mid January now that's sad! Another big hit to east coast ski resorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 CTZ011-012-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-111100- /O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0002.140111T1700Z-140112T0200Z/ SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 326 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTY. * HAZARDS...STRONG WINDS. * WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...GUSTS OVER 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE ENTIRE ADVISORY PERIOD...BUT MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS IN STRONG WINDS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH... OR GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 winds are tame on bufkit. the inversion is going to keep any strong gusts limited to the immediate shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 winds are tame on bufkit. the inversion is going to keep any strong gusts limited to the immediate shore Yeah, when even the NAM does not show much on the momentum transfers you know not much is gonna be making the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 tonight's setup is classic for dense fog. surprised there's no advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I seriously think Mount Holly should reissue the Freezing Rain Advisory. Temperatures are dropping, not rising, here in Morris County, and will soon fall back below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Heavy rain in Manhattan. Couple bands coming through. Wasn't expecting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Super mega foggy right now. Good call forky. Gonna be an entertaining drive to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 quiet here some light rain, no fog, 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Warm front thru here...36 at 5 am... 54 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Stuck in the mid-upper 30s here in Morris County. So much for a warm-up. This will go down as one of the biggest busts ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Stuck in the mid-upper 30s here in Morris County. So much for a warm-up. This will go down as one of the biggest busts ever. Must be low level cold air. I am sitting at 53F and rising. Very strong winds bowing too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 wow, temp just went up 10 degrees in a matter of minutes....48 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Stuck in the mid-upper 30s here in Morris County. So much for a warm-up. This will go down as one of the biggest busts ever. it's coming. the rise will be quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Tugboats are going crazy in NY Harbor -- fog horn woke me up. The fog is incredibly dense; can barely see across the air-shaft of my building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Newark headed for the low 60's today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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