RyanDe680 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Weekend looks like a mess. After almost 2 feet of snow at ORD, rain?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 100 plus inch winter of 2007/08 (hate to even bring that winter up again) had January rains and less than 3" of snow here through the 20th. Still plenty of time for areas of the sub-forum to challenge some monthly (Jan) and seasonal snowfall records even if their is a Jan lull. Lots of snow to be had yet unless the pattern really goes to hell in febuary but I don't see or feel that happening... eastern and southern lakes look good to go to me later in the month and beyond. Just got to get back in to the active pattern without the PNA going and staying to nuts plus for those to the north and west to have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Well I better get my other sump pump switch fixed then! Definitely had the big January lull in 2008. Of course that lull had severe weather and temps in the 60s for a couple days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 The last storm really changed in it's forecasted snows for me from 3 days out to 2 days out. Lets hope this event changes too, at least not as warm and not as much rain. It could happen. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Models are still all over the place with regards to this system but with the very dry lower levels and cold surface I could see some decent ice accumulation before this turns to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 January rain is lame unless it actually gets interesting with some flooding potential. Don't really see that happening this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 January rain is lame unless it actually gets interesting with some flooding potential. Don't really see that happening this time around. This. I just hope it's good driving on Sunday as I'm driving up to Ottawa to visit some friends. Thankfully, it looks like any rain should clear out by Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 What the GFS is showing for snowfall. Total precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Last night's Euro still had the main surge of rain moving up through eastern Iowa, but recent GFS runs have trended toward that surge being farther east with a deformation zone developing in northern Iowa and dropping snow up through MN and WI. Euro would drop 1 inch of rain on me, while the GFS just light rain followed by a little snow. Edit: Just looked at the 00z Euro and I guess it does have some accumulating snow up in DDL's area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 8, 2014 Author Share Posted January 8, 2014 What a mess this will be. The snowpack will be solid if/when temps drop after this low moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 IWX: HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA417 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014 /317 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014/...POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT EXISTS IN THEPRESENT SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASEFRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVYRAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS RAINFALL...ALONGWITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...COULD RESULT IN A SUDDENRELEASE OF RUNOFF ATOP THE FROZEN GROUND. SMALL STREAMS ANDCREEKS...BASEMENTS...AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS WILL LIKELY FLOODFIRST. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LARGER STEM RIVERS WITH THEPOSSIBILITY FOR ICE JAMS MAY FOLLOW. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGESTTHE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF FLOODING WILL EXIST ACROSS THE MAUMEEAND WABASH RIVER BASINS.FLOODING IS NOT A CERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL DOESEXIST. PEOPLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTSREGARDING THIS EVOLVING SITUATION AS SMALL CHANGES IN FORECASTTRACK WILL ALTER THE AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Huge rainstorm for here. Euro shows 1.20" of precip for the QC. Gonna turn our 9-10" of snow into 4-6" of pure glacier. The bottom 3" is already as solid as a rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Huge rainstorm for here. Euro shows 1.20" of precip for the QC. Gonna turn our 9-10" of snow into 4-6" of pure glacier. The bottom 3" is already as solid as a rock. Its kind of funny looking out over the open fields, as you can see sheets of ice that formed when we got the ZR on top of snow, prior to the dumping we just got. New powder blew away leaving the glacier behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 So the GFS has been thrown out some amped solutions the past couple runs(sub 985)...our shortwave becomes negatively tilted as it moves through with a closed and deepening cyclone at the surface and 850/750mb. Starting to look like we see a couple of inches on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Not really an IMBY post but generally speaking, if ever there was a case with marginal temps but lingering cold surfaces resulting in icing, this may be it. We have an arctic airmass that produced bitterly cold temps and the period of "warm" temps prior to the start is not extremely long. The synoptic setup is hostile for significant icing given lack of a dry/cool low level flow and warmer air will win eventually in most areas but I would not be surprised if icing is a bit bigger issue than the model solutions are currently suggesting. Dewpoint trends will be interesting to watch as well...if the models are too quick with low level moistening then it could leave a better window for some evaporational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 No ice accretion in the point and click but DTX has some stongish wording in their briefing • 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain is forecast from late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. • Untreated roads will remain below freezing causing rapid ice accumulation. • Secondary side roads that remain snow covered may become extremely dangerous to drive on. • The bulk of the rain should be absorbed by the snow pack, but some significant ponding of water is possible on the roads. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dtx/web/DTX_Briefing_20140109_4pm.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Gonna be a nice/free car wash for many of us. Euro wants to drop a fresh 1/2" of snow to cover up the grungy, waterlogged snowpack Sat am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 my car is still buried under 1'+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I did a core sample and it came back ridiculously high. Snow depth 14" core 2.1". I'm going to do another one (very hard with all the drifting) so even though that ones likely high the bottom line is there is a LOT of water in this snowpack. The rain will only add to it. Glacier incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 We picked up over a inch of new snow last night, more then I thought we would have got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The models have petered this system out for Iowa and western Wisconsin. For a while they were at least forming a decent deformation zone and lifting it through DLL's area, potentially dropping a few inches of snow, but now the whole thing looks pretty weak outside the main surge of rain well to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 GFS really loading on the rain in N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Quite the slug of rain moving in. 32°/32° at UGN. Probably inch over freezing before too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Quite the slug of rain moving in. 32°/32° at UGN. Probably inch over freezing before too long. That radar scale makes too much of the rain look convective. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Car accidents all over the place here...even I90 was shut down for awhile this afternoon. The first blob of real precip is almost here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 going to be a slop fest out there. dinner plans ruined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Even though it is raining out, the intersection by my house is very slick. Not sure if the initial rain froze over quickly because of the cold ground, but it was definitely ice on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Flooding threat doesn't look huge this weekend from precip alone. Thick ice on the rivers after the deep cold could make for some ice jamming though. Will be watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 radar looks like 1" is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 going to be a slop fest out there. dinner plans ruined. Dinner isn't outside is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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