lake effect vs. synoptic in great lakes cities

[buckeye]

Take grand rapids Michigan for example, are there stats that break out percentage of snowfall that is lake effect vs. synoptic? I have a friend in grand rapids and he gets 3 or 4 times the snow we do here in cmh. I've always wondered about that.

[Powerball]

Take grand rapids Michigan for example, are there stats that break out percentage of snowfall that is lake effect vs. synoptic? I have a friend in grand rapids and he gets 3 or 4 times the snow we do here in cmh. I've always wondered about that.

In an average season, Grand Rapids (which averages 64") picks up maybe 20-25" of lake effect in addition to synoptic snow. Detroit averages 44" (about 3-6" of that is lake effect), Milwaukee if I recall averages 46" and Chicago averages 39", so I don't see why Grand Rapids' synoptic number would be much different.

Using some funny math, only about 30-40% of Grand Rapids' snow on average is lake effect.

[Chicago WX]

Great question and something I think a lot of us have always wondered If just use the GRR CWA for example, Grand Rapids averages 72.2" per season while Lansing averages 54.5". Both are essentially about the same latitude, but you have to think GRR's proximity to the Lake and resultant LES makes up a large part of that difference. That of course assuming LAN only gets table scraps from LES, which makes sense considering they're "far removed" from Lake Michigan. Sample size I know, but it's the best example I could think of at the moment.

[wishforsnow]

I would guess where I live 85% of our snow is lake effect. Most times the synoptic storms go either west, south, or east of here. Most times the only synoptic snow we get is from clippers.

[Harry]

In an average season, Grand Rapids (which averages 64") picks up maybe 20-25" of lake effect in addition to synoptic snow. Detroit averages 44" (about 3-6" of that is lake effect), Milwaukee if I recall averages 46" and Chicago averages 39", so I don't see why Grand Rapids' synoptic number would be much different.

Using some funny math, only about 30-40% of Grand Rapids' snow on average is lake effect.

See Chicagowx reply for the average snowfall in Grand Rapids.

Great question and something I think a lot of us have always wondered If just use the GRR CWA for example, Grand Rapids averages 72.2" per season while Lansing averages 54.5". Both are essentially about the same latitude, but you have to think GRR's proximity to the Lake and resultant LES makes up a large part of that difference. That of course assuming LAN only gets table scraps from LES, which makes sense considering they're "far removed" from Lake Michigan. Sample size I know, but it's the best example I could think of at the moment.

This is a reasonable account and usually how it works. Keep in mind the preferred flow is west BUT GRR can still cash in if it is wsw/sw/wnw/nw where as places like Lansing gets cut off and thus has less to work with then even here for that matter and thus the greater seasonal snowfall here vs Lansing despite Lansing being further north. I do know this as well and that is for about every mile west you go from here the seasonal average goes up by about a inch. Kalamazoo which is about 15-20 miles averages about 15-20 more inches of snow as well. Thus another way to try and figure that out.

[Chicago WX]

See Chicagowx reply for the average snowfall in Grand Rapids.

This is a reasonable account and usually how it works. Keep in mind the preferred flow is west BUT GRR can still cash in if it is wsw/sw/wnw/nw where as places like Lansing gets cut off and thus has less to work with then even here for that matter and thus the greater seasonal snowfall here vs Lansing despite Lansing being further north. I do know this as well and that is for about every mile west you go from here the seasonal average goes up by about a inch. Kalamazoo which is about 15-20 miles averages about 15-20 more inches of snow as well. Thus another way to try and figure that out.

That makes sense. I guess it's a silly question, but do you keep personal snowfall measurements for YBY? And if so, what would be your best guess for synoptic vs LES for BTL?

[Stebo]

The question/variable here is do you include lake enhancement, because in my area we don't a lot of true lake effect but we tend to get some lake enhancement that accompanies the synoptic snow.

[BowMeHunter]

The question/variable here is do you include lake enhancement, because in my area we don't a lot of true lake effect but we tend to get some lake enhancement that accompanies the synoptic snow.

Clippers? Clippers here get me about as excited as severe weather.. MKE is where clippers come to die or miss it seems unless it's a doozy one that can tap some moisture.

[Chicago WX]

The question/variable here is do you include lake enhancement, because in my area we don't a lot of true lake effect but we tend to get some lake enhancement that accompanies the synoptic snow.

Very true, no doubt about it. Same goes for Chicago, although obviously LES plays a minor role generally, but LE can "fluff" totals. Same for MKE, although they did have that LES blitz event a winter or two ago.

[Stebo]

Clippers? Clippers here get me about as excited as severe weather.. MKE is where clippers come to die or miss it seems unless it's a doozy one that can tap some moisture.

No not clippers, lake enhancement kind of like where MKE and CHI get enhancement in a good storm off of Lake Michigan, Detroit gets it off of Lake Huron.

[Stebo]

Very true, no doubt about it. Same goes for Chicago, although obviously LES plays a minor role generally, but LE can "fluff" totals. Same for MKE, although they did have that LES blitz event a winter or two ago.

Yeah I consider it an extra boost in some of our more major storms, especially if the temps are more so in the 25-28 range vs 28-32.

[BowMeHunter]

Very true, no doubt about it. Same goes for Chicago, although obviously LES plays a minor role generally, but LE can "fluff" totals. Same for MKE, although they did have that LES blitz event a winter or two ago.

2008/9 winter.. without that fluke 14/15" we end up just shy of 60" I think.. O well that fluke makes up for the many underdone measurements at the airport.

[Chicago Storm]

Very true, no doubt about it. Same goes for Chicago, although obviously LES plays a minor role generally, but LE can "fluff" totals. Same for MKE, although they did have that LES blitz event a winter or two ago.

2008/9 winter.. without that fluke 14/15" we end up just shy of 60" I think.. O well that fluke makes up for the many underdone measurements at the airport.

March 2nd '09.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=22559&source=2

[Chicago WX]

2008/9 winter.. without that fluke 14/15" we end up just shy of 60" I think.. O well that fluke makes up for the many underdone measurements at the airport.

I thought it was 2008-09, wasn't sure. Pretty cool event though.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=22559&source=2

[BowMeHunter]

No not clippers, lake enhancement kind of like where MKE and CHI get enhancement in a good storm off of Lake Michigan, Detroit gets it off of Lake Huron.

Ahhh, never knew it was that much of a big deal in SE MI.... I don't even know where you live tho in, MI. I just never see higher amounts possible for like areas where Josh live in the AFD'S. Not that I pay all that close of attention and my memory is of a 4 yr old even if I did read it.

[Stebo]

Ahhh, never knew it was that much of a big deal in SE MI.... I don't even know where you live tho in, MI. I just never see higher amounts possible for like areas where Josh live in the AFD'S. Not that I pay all that close of attention and my memory is of a 4 yr old even if I did read it.

Well its not a majorly big deal but I'd say in a winter it accounts for 15-20% of the snow, obviously lake enhancement is much harder to measure because it occurs on concert with synoptic snowfalls.

[BowMeHunter]

Well its not a majorly big deal but I'd say in a winter it accounts for 15-20% of the snow, obviously lake enhancement is much harder to measure because it occurs on concert with synoptic snowfalls.

Would never of on the fly guessed it counted for that much out that way.. But when you think of our piddly snowfall avg's it makes close sense. Specially here in MKE where LE I would guess is a bigger deal than out by Josh.

[Hoosier]

I'm guessing lake effect accounts for 2% of LAF average annual snowfall, and that may be optimistic.

[Chicago WX]

I'm guessing lake effect accounts for 2% of LAF average annual snowfall, and that may be optimistic.

Probably optimistic. I like 1%.

[Harry]

That makes sense. I guess it's a silly question, but do you keep personal snowfall measurements for YBY? And if so, what would be your best guess for synoptic vs LES for BTL?

For a average i would say about 15" ( give or take a inch or two? )of the seasonal total is a result of LES? Just keep in mind years like 04-05 when probably about only 5-6 may have come from the lake vs years like 01-02 when atleast 36+ ( almost 30" from the mega les event that week in late Dec ) was a result of the lake. So as mentioned it can vary alot from one year to the next. Then you have lake enhancement which i see others have touched on.

Another way to do this is by looking at a location away from the influences of the lakes as far north and say Dubuque IA and what they average which per NWS is 43.5"... So if going by that then Grand Rapids get's about 28.5" from the lake per season on average.

[Chicago WX]

For a average i would say about 15" ( give or take a inch or two? )of the seasonal total is a result of LES? Just keep in mind years like 04-05 when probably about only 5-6 may have come from the lake vs years like 01-02 when atleast 36+ ( almost 30" from the mega les event that week in late Dec ) was a result of the lake. So as mentioned it can vary alot from one year to the next. Then you have lake enhancement which i see others have touched on.

Another way to do this is by looking at a location away from the influences of the lakes as far north and say Dubuque IA and what they average which per NWS is 43.5"... So if going by that then Grand Rapids get's about 28.5" from the lake per season on average.

Yeah I can buy that and it makes sense to me. And thanks for the thoughts on your location. As you said, it can definitely vary from season to season.

[TugHillMatt]

Here in Muskegon, about 35 miles west northwest of G.R. (and right along Lake Michigan) we get about 30 more inches than G.R. does. The average is a little over 100 inches. Pretty amazing difference when you compare Lansing to Muskegon. From this, I'd estimate about 60 percent of our snowfall right along Lake MIchigan comes from Lake effect/enhancement.

[Powerball]

No not clippers, lake enhancement kind of like where MKE and CHI get enhancement in a good storm off of Lake Michigan, Detroit gets it off of Lake Huron.

I would consider the I-94/I-96 convergent bands lake effect.

DTX has been known to issue Lake Effect Headlines for it and other than the convergence they're not really enhanced by anything synoptically.

Though saying it accouints for 15 - 20% of their total on average is a little too generous (maybe more like 10%).

[Powerball]

See Chicagowx reply for the average snowfall in Grand Rapids.

Thanks for correcting me. I assume they updated the averages recently (and 64.4 is an older average).

Eithe way using my same numbers it still balances out. Assuming Grand Rapids sees about 25" of pure lake effect snow it would probably account for 35% of their total on average.

[michsnowfreak]

Ahhh, never knew it was that much of a big deal in SE MI.... I don't even know where you live tho in, MI. I just never see higher amounts possible for like areas where Josh live in the AFD'S. Not that I pay all that close of attention and my memory is of a 4 yr old even if I did read it.

He lives in Eastpointe, which is close to Detroit, just northeast.

Lake enhancement from lake huron DOES sometimes give us some decent lake streamers on the eastside, and Ive also seen it seem to allow a cutter seem to hang on longer than expected here, though they never do make that big of a deal in the AFD lol. But Id say moreso with clippers on NW flow is when we do see widespread lake enhancement in southern MI, from Grand Rapids to Detroit and points in between. In fact, the actual lake enhanced snow in these situations can be just as generous at DTW as in GRR, the difference being after the clipper departs, with its synoptic/lake enhanced snow, the lake machine starts to churn pure lake snow. GRR will see several inches of pure LES on the backside, while DTW may add only a tenth or two of an inch.

[KeenerWx]

On average, Lake effect accounts for about 15-20% of our normal snowfall here..(around 4-5")

Definitely plays a role..

[Southland Wx]

We tried to figure this out in NY...in Syracuse. We averaged annual snow in ALB, Scranton, Toronto, and Burlington and subtracted that from our annuals to get a rough calculation. I think it came out to 70% or so. I used to keep a log in Utica too, but Eastern's system has been abandoned so I can't figure out what it was for a couple winters.

[Trent]

Depends on where you measure in the city here, 40-60% depending on elevation. Of course, in the suburbs closer to 70% is lake effect.