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Monday Through Wednesday Lake Effect Snow Event


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I'd estimate the band across the south towns is producing 1 inch per hour snowfall rates. The one north of the city 2 inch per hour rates. The one across the Tug 3-4+ inch per hour rates.

I can back that last statement about snowfall rates at the Tug. Visibility down to around 0 with snowfall of 3.5"/hr. This is courtesy of OWLeS. They are getting some amazing data up there

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The double-banded structure on the Erie band (assuming the Buffalo radar is representative) is quite interesting. I haven't paid enough attention to Erie bands over the years (because they generally don't impact my area much) to know how common this type of setup is, whether it's more common with stronger winds and/or an increasingly ice-covered lake. Any thoughts?

 

The 1 km visible images I've seen on the cod website suggest that more than half of the lake may be ice covered at this point, though it's impossible to be sure...

 

Chris

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING COUNTIES...

ALOFT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP AND COLD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH

THIS TROUGH. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS NOW ENTERING THE UPPER GREAT

LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS LAKE

SNOWS OFF ALL GREAT LAKES. WIND FLOW IS SUCH THAT LAKE ERIE MOISTURE

IS FEEDING INTO THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR...ALONG WITH THE

CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...WITH

TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WARMING FROM -21/22C THIS LATE AFTERNOON TO

-16/-18C BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL WARNINGS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE

OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND EVEN LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL LIGHTEN SOME...AND

WITH THE WARMING ALOFT OUR AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE

ENDING THE THREAT OF THE DANGEROUS LOW WIND CHILLS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OFF BOTH GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE TIME

PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THESE LAKE BANDS JUST A FEW STRAY SNOW FLURRIES

FLURRIES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT THE SNOW BAND...WHICH IS ALONG LAKE ERIE AND

INLAND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND TOWARDS ROCHESTER TO CONTINUE

IN POSITION THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT TIMES THIS BAND MAY

SPLIT INTO TWO BANDS...AND SNOWFALL RATES WILL NOT BE OVERLY

IMPRESSIVE...WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS PER HOUR. HOWEVER THE

STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE MORE IMPORTANT STORY

WITH THESE WINDS BLOWING AND DRIFTING THE SNOW AROUND. THIS BLOWING

SNOW IN ADDITION TO THE FALLING SNOW WILL BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN

TO NEAR 0 MILES AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS.

A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CROSS

JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BEHIND

THIS SHORTWAVE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT SUCH THAT THE SNOW

BAND SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHWARD...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAND

CLIPPING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER

WINDS WILL AGAIN ALIGN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER OVERNIGHT...SLOWING

THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SNOW BAND...AND POSSIBLY EVEN ALLOW

IT TO AGAIN OSCILLATE NORTHWARD BACK TOWARDS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHTOWNS

OF BUFFALO AND TOWARDS BATAVIA.

OVERALL SNOW TOTALS TONIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE HALF FOOT OR

LESS. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS UNDER PERSISTENT BANDS OF SNOW COULD

PICK UP 8 INCHES OR SO OF FRESH SNOW. WHILE THESE SNOW TOTALS WILL

BE NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT...AGAIN THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE

BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO THE SNOW SUCH THAT NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES

WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL LEAVE THE BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR

THE OUTLINED COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW

WARNING ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...AND LEAVE THE SNOW ADVISORY UP FOR

PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...AND

BLOWING SNOW ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

AS WE WARM ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW OUR LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM

LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...AND FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL

ALLOW THE SNOW BAND TO WEAKEN SOME. ALSO ALLOWING THE SNOWS TO

WEAKEN WILL BE EXPANDING ICE COVERAGE ON LAKE ERIE...ESPECIALLY THE

WESTERN END OF THE LAKE. HOWEVER THE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE WILL

WIDEN SOME WITH THE WARMING...AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE

SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR THE SNOWFLAKES TO BECOME LARGER...WITH SNOW

RATIOS RISING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW RATES TO INCREASE SOME THIS

EVENING.

TOMORROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SOME WHILE WEAKENING.

ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW INCHES.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A HEALTHY PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUES

ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING

BLIZZARD WARNINGS HERE AS THE LAKE BAND IS NARROW...WITH FAR

NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON...AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES WITH

RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

LIKE ITS UPSTREAM LAKE...WINDS WILL LIKELY VEER SOME LATE IN THE

EVENING AND ALLOW FOR THE LAKE BAND TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TUG

HILL AND INTO NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. THE 12Z NAM BUFKIT PROFILES

SHOWING A GOOD PLUME OF OMEGA...UPWARD MOTION THROUGH THE EVENING

HOURS...WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS

THE BAND ALIGNS ALONG THE LONGER STRETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND

COUPLED WITH THE OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FEATURE...SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3

INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SUCH THAT AN

ADDITIONAL 2 FEET OF SNOW ARE LIKELY TO FALL OVERNIGHT.

OVER LAKE ONTARIO INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...BUT

LIKE LAKE ERIE THE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE WILL WIDEN SOME WITH THE

WARMING ALOFT...AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE SHORTWAVE MAY

ALLOW FOR THE SNOWFLAKES TO BECOME LARGER...WITH SNOW RATIOS RISING.

THIS WILL MAINTAIN HEAVY AT TIMES LAKE SNOWS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE

MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIFTING

BACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TUG HILL.

AIR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK AGAIN INTO LOW SINGLE

DIGITS...AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BOSTON

HILLS...WYOMING HILLS AND BRISTOL HILLS REGION.

TOMORROW AIR TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH TEMPERATURES

RISING INTO THE TEENS.

-- End Changed Discussion --
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Just went on a 4 mile walk. Got pulled over by the cops, but didn't get it on video. He's like where are you headed, be very careful. That's a first, pulled over while walking. ^_^

Some knucklehead ignored the travel ban last night and hit a NYS trooper that was helping with the shutdown of 190 right by the west seneca st exit.

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nope 3 cops did pass me during my walk though. None of them said anything to me. Only seen 1 or two cars out and a tractor trailer trying to make it up the hill on buffalo road during my entire 20 minute walk

Cool post pictures when you get a chance,I'm done for the day lol.

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Looks like KART cashed in nicely,here are the latest spotter reports.

000

NOUS41 KBUF 072006

PNSBUF

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-080804-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

304 PM EST TUE JAN 07 2014

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...ERIE COUNTY...

ELMA 18.0 215 PM 1/07 AMATEUR RADIO

ORCHARD PARK 15.0 230 PM 1/07 AMATEUR RADIO

MARILLA 14.0 215 PM 1/07 AMATEUR RADIO

WEST SENECA 14.0 215 PM 1/07 AMATEUR RADIO

LANCASTER 8.0 215 PM 1/07 AMATEUR RADIO

BUFFALO 7.6 300 PM 1/07 NWS OFFICE

WILLIAMSVILLE 4.5 254 PM 1/07 TRAINED SPOTTER

CLARENCE 4.0 215 PM 1/07 AMATEUR RADIO

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...

WATERTOWN 15.0 120 PM 1/07 SOCIAL MEDIA

...WYOMING COUNTY...

ATTICA 6.0 215 PM 1/07 AMATEUR RADIO

$$

AR

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For the first time in about 30 hours there is no snow falling with little blowing snow at the moment. Looks very peaceful right now. Hoping we can pick up about 4-6 more inches tonight somehow. Think were done here though.

 

Nope, not done by far yet. Another 6-12 is still possible by tomorrow morning in most persistent bands. Another trough is going to swing through in a few hours dropping the bands sounds and possibly intensifying them.

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A jebwalk ban is unconstitutional

 

:lmao:

 

A lot of posters in this thread will not understand this reference!

 

Anyway, great pics Devin! It always seems more impressive seeing such images when you are very familiar with what the same view looks like in normal conditions. Love the shots of OP. Very jealous of all you guys.

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:lmao:

 

A lot of posters in this thread will not understand this reference!

 

Anyway, great pics Nick! It always seems more impressive seeing such images when you are very familiar with what the same view looks like in normal conditions. Love the shots of OP. Very jealous of all you guys.

is jeb still around?

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