Tornado Girl Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 I thought I would start a thread for the upcoming lake effect event Well our Apps Runner, brought everything but the kitchen sink. Now we await for yet another intrusion of arctic air. But, the big story starting tomorrow through Wednesday will be the Lake Effect Snow developing across the Tug Hill and off of Lake Erie . Several feet of snow are expected. 850mb temps will crash to -25C, more than enough for a epic lake effect event. Winds will be such that Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming and Livingston counties off of Lake Erie. Wind orientation will ensure that Lake Ontario has a band that will run the entire axis of the Lake. other than a few wiggles , the band should say over the Tug Hill Plateau for most of the event. Amounts off of Lake Erie could be up around 3 feet. With the Tug hill possibly seeing five or six feet of snow, maybe more in spots. I live on the Tug, thought Y'all would enjoy a discussion on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Post pics Wish i had time off to chase this event in the tug , awesome phenomena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Sorry i haven't seen this thread earlier,lets move the discussion here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Thanks for creating this thread. I'll start it off with a picture off the thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 This will be a good location to keep track of all pictures/videos/radar loops of this event. Please everyone keep posting so I can include it in the video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Have fun up there guys. I got a bunch of friends from Millersville University in the OWLeS project going into the Ontario band in Sandy Creek and near the Tug. They are expecting 45-60" in Sandy Creek with up to 80+" in the Tug. I'll be enjoying following both bands from home here in Baltimore, MD where the low will reach 0 or lower for the first time in 20 years. Isn't winter the best? Stay safe all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Have fun up there guys. I got a bunch of friends from Millersville University in the OWLeS project going into the Ontario band in Sandy Creek and near the Tug. They are expecting 45-60" in Sandy Creek with up to 80+" in the Tug. I'll be enjoying following both bands from home here in Baltimore, MD where the low will reach 0 or lower for the first time in 20 years. Isn't winter the best? Stay safe all Thanks man,make sure you bundle up down there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 This will be a good location to keep track of all pictures/videos/radar loops of this event. Please everyone keep posting so I can include it in the video. If it wasn't for the brutal wind chill out there i would've chased this all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Thanks man,make sure you bundle up down there! I can't wait to wake up at 6 tomorrow and take a deep breath of sub zero air. Currently 21 and falling fast down here. 8 degrees in 90 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Band that went through earlier this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Outside right now. Including in this video was a guy driving in a 4 wheel drive taping this event. Going to search for his on youtube tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Please Devin go take a video, I want to have as much video as possible for the montage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Hamburg at 7:55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Outside right now. Including in this video was a guy driving in a 4 wheel drive taping this event. Going to search for his on youtube tonight. Can hear the snow crunching under you in that, a very cold LES event. Enjoy what could be Lake Erie's last hurrah! We haven't been nailed particularly well in NE OH this year by the lake but you guys certainly have been. Am glad this is living up to all the hype for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Man the 18z wrf out of BTV has that band around buffalo all day Tommorow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I'm going to be on Tomorrow,I gotta go to work..enjoy the snow Richard . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Man the 18z wrf out of BTV has that band around buffalo all day Tommorow . Noticed that to, Hopefully you guys can get in on this action as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I think the ridiculous amounts that were initially progged for the Tug may fall a bit shy, as it now appears the band will be a bit more transient...that said...jackpots of 50" are very much on the table. Erie appears to be a beast and more than likely a bit less transient. Good luck all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 A bit surprising to me is how well organized the band off of Lake Erie is given that the winds are above 50 kts near 850 mb based on the 00z BUF sounding. It's possible that the extreme temperature difference between the lake surface and the air just above is producing enough bouyancy to counteract the shear. Another possibility is the that there is low-level convergence enhanced near the northern shore of Lake Erie due to the increased friction over the ice surface versus the water. Either way, both the 4 km NAM and the HRRR have been doing poorly so far, placing the main band too far south, along the southern shore of Lake Erie. These models may have missed the enhanced convergence along the northern shore of the lake, perhaps because they haven't assimilated the most recent ice cover data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Another burst of heavy snow blasting through. So difficult to measure what's fallen here - would estimate about 4" just based on snowfall rates and duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Band reforming north again? We're getting moderate snow now, not the pounding stuff from earlier but still coming down at a decent clip near Delaware Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Band reforming north again? We're getting moderate snow now, not the pounding stuff from earlier but still coming down at a decent clip near Delaware Park. Almost looks like a trof swinging through with some enhancement here from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Blizzard conditions from 5 until now. Nearly 5 hours of pure insanity. Band looks to drift just south of me in the next hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I just got up for something else and than I just looked out the window and my jaw-dropped, it was the greatest white-out in front of the house I have ever seen!!!!! I have never seen anything like it, I guess 0 visibility or something lol. I couldn't even see the trees 20 feet away anymore (large). It's pretty much complete blizzard conditions for me as well now. I was shaking afterwards it was so insane. All the plows are now off roads here. Drifting is very rapid. What might be the other amazing or unbelievable part is there is almost nothing showing up on the Dbz returns over me at this time and its heavy snow within the blizzard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I just got up for something else and than I just looked out the window and my jaw-dropped, it was the greatest white-out in front of the house I have ever seen!!!!! I have never seen anything like it, I guess 0 visibility or something lol. I couldn't even see the trees 20 feet away anymore (large). It's pretty much complete blizzard conditions for me as well now. I was shaking afterwards it was so insane. All the plows are now off roads here. Drifting is very rapid. What might be the other amazing or unbelievable part is there is almost nothing showing up on the Dbz returns over me at this time and its heavy snow within the blizzard... Might have to do with the insanely cold temperatures which are harder for the reflectivity of the radar to capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Secondary band has formed from the trough that just went through and has widened the ban considerably. Heavy snow and whiteouts continue here. I am going to go out in a little bit in my snowboarding gear to gather some video of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Whiteouts continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Snow with widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around -3. Wind chill values as low as -30. Windy, with a west wind 24 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 10 to 15 inches possible. Tuesday Snow with widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 6. Wind chill values as low as -30. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 15 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow before 3am, then snow likely after 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 2. Wind chill values as low as -20. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 29 mph decreasing to 18 to 23 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday Snow showers likely, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 17. Wind chill values as low as -20. Southwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 ...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING COUNTIES...EAST OF LAKE ERIE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE EXPERIENCEDIN THE BAND CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHTOWNS TO JUST SOUTH OF THEERIE COUNTY LINE/NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVELTROUGH AKA SHORT-WAVE IS STARTING TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THEREGION AT 03Z...WITH BOTH A PUSH TO THE SOUTH BUT ALSO WITHREDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF THE BAND. THE NET RESULTIS LITTLE CHANGE. UPSTREAM LOWER LEVELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDDIRECTION PER KCLE RADAR...ALTHOUGH HIGHER DATA SUGGESTS A WEAKLAKE MI CONNECTION THAT MIGHT RE-ENERGIZE BAND BEHIND THE SHORT-WAVE. LATEST MODEL DATA GETS A STRONGER BAND GETS GOING BETWEEN12-15Z...BUT SUSPECT THIS IS TOO SLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT BAND TO BEDEVELOPING OR IN FULL FORCE BY AROUND SUNRISE NEAR/OVER KBUF...BUTNOT QUITE TO NORTHTOWNS. THE BAND MAY CONTINUE TO EDGE NORTHDURING THE DAY. A CONTINUATION OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTEDTHROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY...AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING. EVENOUTSIDE OF THE BAND...BRIEF WHITEOUTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWINGAND DRIFTING SNOW. THE BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 6AMWEDNESDAY...BUT IT MAY BE CONVERTED BACK TO ANOTHER LESSSIGNIFICANT PRODUCT LATER IF NECESSARY.TO ADD TO THE PROBLEM...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR 0F ORBELOW OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BLIZZARD LOCATIONS...WITH WINDCHILLS WELL BELOW THAT. STARTING TO SEE OBSERVATIONS NEARING -40FIN THE SOUTHERN TIER. ALTHOUGH TECHNICALLY WIND CHILLS ARE NOTPART OF BLIZZARD CRITERIA...IT MAKES THIS EVENT A DANGEROUS TOLIFE THREATENING SITUATION FOR ANYONE OUTSIDE WITHOUT PROPERWINTER GEAR.EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO... THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE WILL HAVE MOREOF AN IMPACT ON THE LAKE BAND WITH A KIND OF WHIP-LASHEFFECT...SWINGING THE BAND A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF ITS CURRENTLOCATION...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY AS IT REBOUNDS BACK TO THE TUG HILLLATER TONIGHT. THE BAND SHOULD THEN REMAIN IN A STEADY STATETHROUGH THE DAY...WITH NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WELLBEYOND TUESDAY.IN TERMS OF SNOW AMOUNTS...THE STRONG WINDS MAKE MEASURING SNOWNEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...ITS BORDERING ON DANGEROUS! ROUGHESTIMATES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BANDS ARE AROUND 4INCHES...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN THE HEART OF BOTH BANDSSO FAR THIS EVENING. WE MAY NEVER NO EXACTLY HOW MUCH FELLOVERNIGHT...BUT WE EXPECT STRONGER AND MORE CONSOLIDATED BANDS ONTUESDAY ENE OF BOTH LAKES. 2-3 FEET FOR THE STORM TOTAL EAST OFLAKE ERIE LOOKS GOOD STILL...DOUBLE THAT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Travel bans in Lackawanna, Orchard Park, Hamburg, Blasdell, Eden, Colden, Brant and West Seneca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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