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[skierinvermont]

Well if the AMO does decline over the next decade it should decisively prove that it is not responsible for global warming. Since after the PDO's decade long decline deniers shifted from the PDO to the AMO, I wonder what they will shift to next. 

[ORH_wxman]

Well if the AMO does decline over the next decade it should decisively prove that it is not responsible for global warming. Since after the PDO's decade long decline deniers shifted from the PDO to the AMO, I wonder what they will shift to next. 

 

 

Actually I feel like the scientific papers have been increasing that are pointing to the PDO shift being a major player in the slowdown/halt of global temperature rise. An AMO falling back into the negative state would likely enhance the slowing of the anthropogenic backround trend while the PDO remains negative.

[skierinvermont]

Actually I feel like the scientific papers have been increasing that are pointing to the PDO shift being a major player in the slowdown/halt of global temperature rise. An AMO falling back into the negative state would likely enhance the slowing of the anthropogenic backround trend while the PDO remains negative.

 

I was more talking about the skeptic/denier online community that used to insist that the PDO was primarily responsible for global warming (remember the neatly trimmed and modified graphical overlays of the PDO and global and/or U.S. temperature)? Now these same groups have shifted their attention to the AMO. 

 

There has been some research suggesting the PDO is possibly temporarily slowing down AGW but I don't think it is definitive (most of the papers don't seem to claim to be). A lot of it seems to rely upon correlation rather than proving the mechanism, such as an increase in ocean heat storage (if the PDO were negating .2C of warming it would have to negate .6W/m2 of forcing causing an acceleration in heat storage of .6W/m2 over the previous rate). 

[skierinvermont]

It is nice to have some understanding of what is causing the AMO and how it might trend.. this is an interesting paper. I wish we had a similar level of understanding for the PDO. 

[Kelathos]

It is exciting to speculate what impact a change in the AMO / cooling of the North Atlantic might have on Arctic Sea Ice.

[AvantHiatus]

It is exciting to speculate what impact a change in the AMO / cooling of the North Atlantic might have on Arctic Sea Ice.

The North Atlantic is not cooling entirely from the lack of overturning (Cold year for Canada and the US) and continues to be warmer than the 2000's average, this paper is about ocean salinity trends and is assuming sea surface temperatures will drop in the future.

 

My guess is that the effects on Arctic Sea Ice will be negligible at best considering that 4 Hiroshima bombs are going into the ocean every second from AGW.

 

On the flip-side, a slowing of the Gulf Stream will warm parts of coastal North America as the velocity of warm currents decrease and diverge off into massive gyres. At the same time, Europe might cool slightly due to a reduction in heat transport.

[ORH_wxman]

The North Atlantic is not cooling entirely from the lack of overturning (Cold year for Canada and the US) and continues to be warmer than the 2000's average, this paper is about ocean salinity trends and is assuming sea surface temperatures will drop in the future.

 

My guess is that the effects on Arctic Sea Ice will be negligible at best considering that 4 Hiroshima bombs are going into the ocean every second from AGW.

 

On the flip-side, a slowing of the Gulf Stream will warm parts of coastal North America as the velocity of warm currents decrease and diverge off into massive gyres. At the same time, Europe might cool slightly due to a reduction in heat transport.

 

 

That would probably be a poor assumption since a negative dipole pattern would be favored with a cooler north Atlantic. We saw this in 2013...just how much a different pattern can affect the sea ice despite your 4 hiroshima bombs going into the ocean every second.