CT Rain Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Remarkably unimpressive at the surface here in SNE. MOS and 2M temps are fairly meh considering how cold it will be at 850mb! Seeing -24C pretty widespread at 850 but actual departures at the surface probably won't be anything worth getting excited over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 What may wind up being the most interesting part of this event is Sound Effect Snow for Block Island, the North Fork of Long Island, MVY/ACK. Seems like a really, really classic setup with super anomalous 850mb temperatures and a westerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 Just check the 6z NAM BUFKIT sounding for the central LIS buoy. At 20z Tuesday it has an inversion height near 800mb and nearly 1000 j/kg of CAPE! That's really impressive. Wind in the boundary layer are 280 degrees but back to 270 degrees by evening. That's a pretty good setup for the North Fork of Long Island, BID/MVY/ACK. Maximizes fetch along the south coast and orients the bands west-east. If the orientation of this cold shot can change just a bit and we can get winds to back even more than it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to get a Ginx special in Westerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Agree Ryan. Not all that impressive here(although cold for sure) especially when compared to the numbers well south of us. The OES for those places mentioned should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 Agree Ryan. Not all that impressive here(although cold for sure) especially when compared to the numbers well south of us. The OES for those places mentioned should be interesting. Agree Ryan. Not all that impressive here(although cold for sure) especially when compared to the numbers well south of us. The OES for those places mentioned should be interesting. I'm bummed winds won't be 250 or 260. This is the rare kind of setup that can bring meaningful OES onto the south coast (BID/MVY/ACK/MTP excluded). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 As far as temps it looks like deep mixing FTL on the soundings. Still cold but nearly as cold as it could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Looks meh on low temps. Coldest spots in SNE right around 0F. See if we can spin up some fake snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 As far as temps it looks like deep mixing FTL on the soundings. Still cold but nearly as cold as it could be. Yup... exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I know nobody cares, but many will be crying for their mamas in the deep south and Ohio valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 I know nobody cares, but many will be crying for their mamas in the deep south and Ohio valley. I know. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 my 20 year streak continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The Euro has a pocket of -30C 850 temps get into IL/OH/PA but then it warms...that's pretty sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The OES threat seems to focus mainly on the islands, models don't really back the flow to the southwest so mainly the islands will see some snows. Impressive 850mb temps and CAPE values are quite impressive, westerly to southwesterly flow events could have more punch given that there is better fetch and longevity of wind flow than northerly wind events. Let's see what this one does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I don't like the Midwest sloppy seconds where we advect the cold in from the WSW-SW. Congrats I90 west of PA though. That's some brutal cold. Kinda funny seeing ORD with a forecast high of -14F in the p&c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 I don't like the Midwest sloppy seconds where we advect the cold in from the WSW-SW. Congrats I90 west of PA though. That's some brutal cold. Kinda funny seeing ORD with a forecast high of -14F in the p&c. The worst part of it is the flow in the boundary layer is just WNW enough to keep ocean/sound effect snow offshore. So close to providing some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I don't like the Midwest sloppy seconds where we advect the cold in from the WSW-SW. Congrats I90 west of PA though. That's some brutal cold. Kinda funny seeing ORD with a forecast high of -14F in the p&c. Sorta OT , but I recall fall of 11" we were advecting "cool" weather in from the sw for a while , that pattern stagnated a bit , then freak arctic chill/octobomb and then torch most of winter sans a week or so in January. Surprised pvd/bos has never recorded sub zero high....weak sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The worst part of it is the flow in the boundary layer is just WNW enough to keep ocean/sound effect snow offshore. So close to providing some fun. GFS is more WSW or SW with the winds in the boundary layer, produces .143" of QPF as snow from Monday night into Wednesday morning. At some point we get convective precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 GFS is more WSW or SW with the winds in the boundary layer, produces .143" of QPF as snow from Monday night into Wednesday morning. At some point we get convective precip. Meh, doesn't look like much of anything there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 GFS is more WSW or SW with the winds in the boundary layer, produces .143" of QPF as snow from Monday night into Wednesday morning. At some point we get convective precip.Sounds like the GFS loves you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The 12z run of the GFS came in with less snow for us in the Monday night into Tuesday timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Less than zero? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Jerry now would be a good time for a LES trip, Buffalo says up to 60 inches in the favored spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Jerry now would be a good time for a LES trip, Buffalo says up to 60 inches in the favored spots. Damn! Wish I could go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Back at company world headquarters in Cedar Rapids: Balmy. tonight/tomorrow/tomorrow night/Tuesday -21, -12, -17, 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I think the GFS and NAM try to bring more southerly component to the westerly wind flow across the Outer Coastal waters south of MVY and ACK. There will be heavy snow bands developing over the outer coastal waters, question is does the flow back southerly enough to impact the islands and Outer Cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 I think also much of New England is spared the coldest aspect of this particular arctic outbreak. Most operational guidance clearly shows the coldest thickness wrapping up and curling back into eastern Canada behind the low pressure as it lifts up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 I think also much of New England is spared the coldest aspect of this particular arctic outbreak. Most operational guidance clearly shows the coldest thickness wrapping up and curling back into eastern Canada behind the low pressure as it lifts up. The cold going through the ohio valley first before getting to us is probably the worst trajectory for our area in terms of maximzing arctic outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 The cold going through the ohio valley first before getting to us is probably the worst trajectory for our area in terms of maximzing arctic outbreaks. It's hard to get really cold 850s without some westerly component, though. The coldest air is usually from NW Canada not directly north of us like Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 The cold going through the ohio valley first before getting to us is probably the worst trajectory for our area in terms of maximzing arctic outbreaks. Right, it's kind of rotted by then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 It's hard to get really cold 850s without some westerly component, though. The coldest air is usually from NW Canada not directly north of us like Hudson Bay. Well there's always some westerly component, but you want more northerly than westerly. And yes, its harder to get extreme 850 temps on more NNW flow...but when it happens is when we get our coldest days. The January 2004 outbreaks were mostly from the NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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