snow. Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Not sure where to put this.....if you dont want an event thread yet you can move it somewhere.. 0z Euro has a 1-2" all snow (maybe mix SE) event, sfc below freezing.... 0z GFS is rain/zr and wetter.... GEFS is colder than OP and suggests a meaningful zr event....havent looked at the members yet but my guess is some have snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 6z gfs is a pretty nasty ice storm for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Starting as 2-3 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 What are the Euro ensembles showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Ensemble looks good, tad warmer than OP though Posted in the wrong thread didnt notice this was here. snow. not to hijack this thread, but does the EURO show some frozen precip for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 GFS ens has a decent cluster around the 6z op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 What are the Euro ensembles showing? The euro ens mean has around 0.20" of snow compared to the operational 2" if I remember correctly. This upcoming cold blast is arctic enough to make things dicey later this week. One big negative is the position of the high off the coast. Not good for us I95 guys....for Winterluver it may not mean that much. One positive is the ground will be really cold. I slipped on my walk this morning. Temp is 33 but ground temp is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The euro ens mean has around 0.20" of snow compared to the operational 2" if I remember correctly. This upcoming cold blast is arctic enough to make things dicey later this week. One big negative is the position of the high off the coast. Not good for us I95 guys....for Winterluver it may not mean that much. One positive is the ground will be really cold. I slipped on my walk this morning. Temp is 33 but ground temp is colder. Please wear a helmet when walking Wes...we need that head of yours as you do a great job here. Be careful all. sounds like its getting real icy in spots here in SE Pa this morning. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Starting as 2-3 snow You made fun of me yesterday because it was .02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 6z GFS...interesting. Plausible? This cold blast coming up isn't the usual one...may have some hanging power. Doubt we get that much QPF though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 6z GFS...interesting. Plausible? This cold blast coming up isn't the usual one...may have some hanging power. Doubt we get that much QPF though It is a super cold air mass. For us easterners, it probably won't amount but we could start as snow or ice but probably won't amount to much but for those west of the city, it still could be a good snow to icing event if there is enough precipitation with it. Might get me an article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 12z is more ice than snow for sure and mostly a west of 95 event as Wes expects. Timing is pretty good overnight though. Not worried too much about ptype fine details. We're too far out to get hung up on 50 mile placements of 850's. 12z retreats before the good precip comes in but that can change. Surface pretty chilly in the usual spots. Whatever happens won't stick around long. Fri afternoon is well above freezing for all. I would consider this a bonus event before light jacket weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 12z is more ice than snow for sure and mostly a west of 95 event as Wes expects. Timing is pretty good overnight though. Not worried too much about ptype fine details. We're too far out to get hung up on 50 mile placements of 850's. 12z retreats before the good precip comes in but that can change. Surface pretty chilly in the usual spots. Whatever happens won't stick around long. Fri afternoon is well above freezing for all. I would consider this a bonus event before light jacket weather. I think it more likley to be an ice event for the west of DC crowd.....for SNOW, Ion and me, maybe some ice at onset but with a high off the coast, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 You made fun of me yesterday because it was .02 That was the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 euro starts as snow, but is completely moisture starved now...like 1/2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 That was the euro lol- and still is.... I'm waiting for the rgem to get in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 euro starts as snow, but is completely moisture starved now...like 1/2"? I wonder if the euro and GFS are showing the general choices. Real weak, maybe snow, anything a little stronger freezing rain or rain? Haven't looked yet at the euro, it wasn't in on wxbell last I checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 At least the euro shows all snow with surface below freezing and 1am-7am timeframe for the most part. Ice isn't very exciting when temps climb well above freezing by mid/late morning. I'd be happy to wake up to .5 - 1" of snow Friday morning. I would think a perfect scenario would give someone 2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I wonder if the euro and GFS are showing the general choices. Real weak, maybe snow, anything a little stronger freezing rain or rain? Haven't looked yet at the euro, it wasn't in on wxbell last I checked. Its on there Wes. I just looked at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 I wonder if the euro and GFS are showing the general choices. Real weak, maybe snow, anything a little stronger freezing rain or rain? Haven't looked yet at the euro, it wasn't in on wxbell last I checked. yes...though on this run, the CAD retreats very quickly, though if it comes early enough, I guess Ji could post a pic of 1" on his grass and we might see some flakes...GFS is crazy wet,,,like almost 1" of liquid...so lots to be worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 At least the euro shows all snow with surface below freezing and 1am-7am timeframe for the most part. Ice isn't very exciting when temps climb well above freezing by mid/late morning. I'd be happy to wake up to .5 - 1" of snow Friday morning. I would think a perfect scenario would give someone 2"? or more if GFS has a better idea on wetness and the models trend colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Its on there Wes. I just looked at it. I just looked too. A little better high than the GFS but it translates to colder and drier. We'd see Matt's dusting to 0.50" if taken literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 yes...though on this run, the CAD retreats very quickly, though if it comes early enough, I guess Ji could post a pic of 1" on his grass and we might see some flakes...GFS is crazy wet,,,like almost 1" of liquid...so lots to be worked out I didn't understand the GFS wetness as the upper system didn't look that great but it did have warm advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 I didn't understand the GFS wetness as the upper system didn't look that great but it did have warm advection. Canadian has the best solution for us.. wetter than euro but colder....but despite the upgrades, I don't think the Canadian is very useful.....Euro and GFS warm us to 40 by early afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I didn't understand the GFS wetness as the upper system didn't look that great but it did have warm advection. which is never a problem around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 or more if GFS has a better idea on wetness and the models trend colder... It's weird though. Ul's are basically non-supportive to the gfs solution. At least IMO. I could be missing something. OTOH, our typical overunning snows are a stripe up the tn valley and overhead. If we take a 50/50 blend of the euro/gfs it's more than a cartopper. Maybe a 1-3 / 2-4 deal. I'll go with the blend for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Canadian has the best solution for us.. wetter than euro but colder....but despite the upgrades, I don't think the Canadian is very useful.....Euro and GFS warm us to 40 by early afternoon GGEM can't be discounted but is obviously not the model of choice; RGEM is another story imho but seems to do best in NINO or NINO "like" patterns (strong ss) which we've had most of the season this will be another nail biter until 36 hrs and then we won't want to believe the models that give us snow lol at least neither the GFS or Euro have shown a huge event to give us false hopes to dash this one has a low bar and will actually be fun to track since the monkey is off our back, virtually if not actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Canadian has the best solution for us.. wetter than euro but colder....but despite the upgrades, I don't think the Canadian is very useful.....Euro and GFS warm us to 40 by early afternoon We're gonna need early if we get it. I'm not real optimistic but that's probably just cause the pattern is starting to fall apart and it's are last shot for week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 It's weird though. Ul's are basically non-supportive to the gfs solution. At least IMO. I could be missing something. OTOH, our typical overunning snows are a stripe up the tn valley and overhead. If we take a 50/50 blend of the euro/gfs it's more than a cartopper. Maybe a 1-3 / 2-4 deal. I'll go with the blend for now. curious to see what happens THursday...do we get into the low 40s?...or hold in the mid 30s.? we've seen these events a fair amount and usually at best if they work out they give Leesburg a nice grassy 2", and we see more of a mangled 0.5" - 1"....DCA gets 0.2" to get to 3.6" for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 We're gonna need early if we get it. I'm not real optimistic but that's probably just cause the pattern is starting to fall apart and it's are last shot for week or so. PDI baby, the last of the pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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