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January 4-6th Winter Storm Part 3


Whitelakeroy

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LOT went with a blizzard warning for SE counties in the CWA.

Package was ready, but they ditched it for now...

 

COMPLEX...HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT UNDERWAY FOR NORTHERN

ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE FOCUS IS THE POST-FRONTAL SNOW BAND EXTENDING

FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI...THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AND INTO LOWER

MICHIGAN. AS OF 3AM CST...THE COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO NWRN

INDIANA AND EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE ONGOING SNOW IS LARGELY

POST-FRONTAL ALONG AN ELEVATED F-GEN BAND. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY

INDICATES NARROW EMBEDDED HEAVIER BANDS WITH AN ENHANCED BAND FROM

GARY TO PONTIAC. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1/2 INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY

WITHIN THE HEAVIER BANDS...WITH STEADY LIGHTER SNOW COVERING THE

REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THE POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THE HI

RES GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A BRIEF LULL TO THE STEADIER SNOW BEFORE

THE WARM ADVECTION SNOW KICKS IN WITH THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE

LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE ACTUALLY MADE LITTLE

SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AND WINTER WEATHER

HEADLINES...BUT STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE NECESSITY TO

UPGRADE AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A BLIZZARD

WARNING FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. DURING THIS

PERIOD...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35

MPH. SO...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE CWA

WITH...ONCE AGAIN...OPEN AREAS WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTED ROADS SEEING

THE GREATEST IMPACT. BY THE TIME THAT THE WARM ADVECTION SNOW GETS

UNDERWAY...THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST

OF A LINE FROM GARY TO PONTIAC SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...WITH

AMOUNTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH. THE COMBINATION OF

FALLING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD VERY LIKELY PRODUCE BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON UPGRADING THIS PORTION OF THE AREA

TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR NOW...AND MONITOR THE ONSET TIMING OF THE

HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES WITH THE WARM ADVECTION SNOW. THE HIGH RES

MODEL GUIDANCE STILL WANTS TO DEVELOP A LAKE EFFECT PLUME POINTING

INTO LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA LATE THIS

AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD FURTHER ENHANCE

SNOWFALL RATES AND LIKELY REDUCING VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT

TIMES. SO...MANY OF THE INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS ARE COMING TOGETHER...THE MAIN QUESTIONS BEING TIMING AND

AREA EXTENT STILL UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON A BLIZZARD WARNING

FOR NOW. 

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ILN still thinking 5-8" for me. somehow.

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
447 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED...
...BRUTALLY COLD WIND CHILL TO FOLLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

.A WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE STORM WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST
WEATHER IN 20 YEARS.

INZ059-OHZ045-052-060-061-051800-
/O.CON.KILN.WS.W.0002.140105T1000Z-140106T0900Z/
/O.CON.KILN.WC.W.0001.140106T0900Z-140107T2200Z/
UNION IN-UNION OH-CHAMPAIGN-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIBERTY...MARYSVILLE...URBANA...EATON...
DAYTON
447 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 5 PM
EST TUESDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...FLASH FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THIS WILL BECOME ALL
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO THE
EVENING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BUT
WINDS WILL CREATE BLOWING SNOW. RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY
CAUSE FLASH FREEZING OF WET SURFACES TONIGHT. ARCTIC AIR WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...WILL FALL TO 0 TO 5 BELOW BY MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO DROP TO 12 TO 18 BELOW MONDAY NIGHT. READINGS WILL
GET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...WILL BE 10 TO 25 BELOW MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN FALL TO TO 30 TO 45 BELOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING SNOW. THE
FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE VENTURING OUTSIDE.
PROLONGED EXPOSURE MAY CAUSE FROSTBITE.
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4.9" at 4:00

 

Take it FWIW though as I only took one measurement due to the fact I just woke up and am fighting the flu...I will do a multi measure and adjust on my next round of measuring

 

Winds have picked up some and the air has definitely cooled....nice caking on all surfaces this morning

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MCD 0003.....

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 AM CST SUN JAN 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MO...IL

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

   VALID 050916Z - 051515Z

   SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO
   NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN MISSOURI THROUGH DAYBREAK.
   SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS
   MORNING WITH THESE RATES SPREADING TO PARTS OF SWRN IL BY 15 UTC/10
   AM CST.

   DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-120M/12H WILL OCCUR WITH
   TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING AND
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE GRADUAL DEEPENING OF A FRONTAL WAVE/SFC LOW OVER
   AR. A MODEST INFLUX OF HIGHER PW AIR /0.75-0.90 INCHES/ NEAR AND
   EAST OF THE SFC LOW TRACK WILL COINCIDE WITH 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS
   AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY OVER SRN/CNTRL MO THROUGH THE MORNING.
   AS SLOPED ASCENT WITHIN THIS FRONTAL ZONE INTENSIFIES...DENDRITIC
   GROWTH LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASINGLY
   SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC HABITAT FOR SNOWFALL PRODUCTION. THIS
   PROCESS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SW-TO-NE ORIENTED BANDS
   OF MDT TO HEAVY SNOW.

   SYNOPTIC AND HIGH-RES MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
   NARROW RAIN-TO-SNOW TRANSITION ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS SERN MO THROUGH
   THE MORNING. MAX HRLY QPF AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE TRANSITION ZONE ARE
   AROUND 0.10 INCH WHERE NAM SNOW/LIQUID RATIO IS FORECAST TO BE
   AROUND 10/1. THUS...EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES IN THE HEAVIER BANDS TO
   REACH ABOUT AN INCH PER HOUR. THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY
   THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH
   EWD/NEWD EXTENT...AS MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT INTENSIFIES AND
   SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO SWRN IL.

 

 

post-5865-0-09017500-1388918006_thumb.gi

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I couldn't sleep. Snowing nicely here right now. 

 

LAF zone forecast is a thing of beauty. Combined with the extreme cold, one of the coolest I've ever seen.

 

TIPPECANOE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE
403 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATION AROUND 10 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.
TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...WINDY...CLOUDY...SNOW...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATION AROUND 2 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 12 TO
14 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 16 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. LOWEST
WIND CHILL READINGS 31 BELOW TO 41 BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

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I couldn't sleep. Snowing nicely here right now. 

 

LAF zone forecast is a thing of beauty. Combined with the extreme cold, one of the coolest I've ever seen.

 

TIPPECANOE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE

403 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST

TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW

ACCUMULATION AROUND 10 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.

TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...WINDY...CLOUDY...SNOW...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS

AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW

ACCUMULATION AROUND 2 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 12 TO

14 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 16 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH

WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. LOWEST

WIND CHILL READINGS 31 BELOW TO 41 BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

:lol:

 

Yeah, got about 5 hours of sleep..  But had to check on a few work things though also.. 

 

Just starting to get some flakes currently..  Forecast looks good for today!

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:lol:

 

Yeah, got about 5 hours of sleep..  But had to check on a few work things though also.. 

 

Just starting to get some flakes currently..  Forecast looks good for today!

 

lol, me too....I slept like a log for 5 hours...but then that was it. It's storm time.

 

If this one pans out, it may be one we remember for a long time.

 

I see IND and IWX are watching things for a possible Blizzard Warning upgrade for later today. Icing on the cake if that happens. 

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lol, me too....I slept like a log for 5 hours...but then that was it. It's storm time.

 

If this one pans out, it may be one we remember for a long time.

 

I see IND and IWX are watching things for a possible Blizzard Warning upgrade for later today. Icing on the cake if that happens. 

Yeah, that would be total icing on the cake!

 

Just glad this is happening on a weekend.. Not having to be out in the stuff is fine with me.

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