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January 4-6th Winter Storm Part 3


Whitelakeroy

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Although the 00z Euro is not in, I'm feeling fairly good about bumping my call into the 12-15 inch range.  Really seems like the higher-res models have been leading the way in the past 24 hours or so and there is very good agreement between the SREF mean/NAM/RGEM/GGEM on precip amounts around here with even the drier models not too far behind. I'm not sold on ratios being that good given forecast soundings, somewhat marginal temps early on and upstream reports so thinking something around 10-12:1 at the beginning and trending toward 15:1 or a bit higher at the end.  There is a chance that it could be a top 5 snowstorm for Lafayette.

 

As mentioned before, the magnitude of the snow and the rapidity/magnitude of the temperature plunge make for a rare, nearly unprecedented event here in Lafayette...especially in modern times, with perhaps the best "analog" (not synoptically speaking but weather conditions-wise) for such a thing being the January 11-12, 1918 event, though it appears that one had higher winds and less snow here.  Very exciting stuff.   

Just woke up after falling asleep on the couch a few hours ago... after looking at the euro, this seems quite reasonable.

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Going to miss the fluffy snow of the last few storms by the look of things. I would expect 10:1 to start and perhaps increase ratios as the storm progresses. Good news is all my lots are now asphalt again, only to get buried in new fresh snow and restart the process. Every thing is plugged in and all the equipment and trucks has diesel fuel conditioner to prevent any more freeze ups and no starts.

20cm here in Windsor or 9" is my guess.

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Went outside for about 10 mins. Friendly 0.1 or 0.2" down. Steady stream of -SN falling. Visibility is lowering but the flakes are quite granular.

That's what I was getting, or at least most of tonight. I haven't had any large snowflakes or white-outs IMBY yet this winter, kind of want that like during January 20 of last year which was the last white-out conditions with a punch. Right at this minute the snowflakes and snowfall rate are medium so if it can stay like this for a very long time, I'm good.

 

On radar, what is most memorable so far about this system is how sharp the precipitation band is, its crazy. Its a perfect edge for many miles between moderate snow and nothing.

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I'm really disappointed this impressive storm stayed too far north of me.  Boy that rain/snow line hiked north and flattened out! A line from ORD to DTX is going to be ROUGH!  Man I miss REAL snow!  Wish I would have never moved from CMH.

 

I'm a novice by far...but I'm learning a TON!  Love this group.

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SEMI gets a comma head bonus toward the end, could be looking at several places 12"+ if that verified.

 

 

Looks like the incoming vort with the PV enahances the backside.

 

With the DGZ deepening to 300MB off the surface.  Probably ratios of 20-1 or higher.

 

Models are probably to dry with that enhancement.

 

I am going with a 15-22" max band from just SW of STL through STL and S to Laf/S to your neck of the woods.

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