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January 4-6th Winter Storm Part 3


Whitelakeroy

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DVN radar loaded too (minus the last frame that shows a completely blank radar) ... looks like the LE streamers that just kept pouring in the other morning....but obviously from the other direction and obviously not LE .... you know what I mean lol

 

lol, I got it. Took me a sec, but I got it!   We'll call it the DVN streamer/seeder/feeder.  

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LOT's thoughts:

 

.DISCUSSION...
942 PM CST

THE ONLY CHANGES TO HEADLINES THIS EVENING WAS TO EXTEND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNTIL NOON
SUNDAY. STRONGLY CONSIDERED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHWEST IN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVE...BUT
GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN GUIDANCE AND MAYBE A SLIGHT TREND TO DELAY THE
ARCTIC FRONT...HAVE OPTED TO ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT ANOTHER
LOOK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN GENEARLLY ON
TRACK...EVEN THOUGH INTENSE BANDING HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SEEN THUS FAR. THE GOING FORECAST DOES ANTICIPATE SOME OF THAT
HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO MEET THE
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AND WE DO EXPECT THAT TO OCCUR. SO
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO MAXIMUM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

IN THE NEAR TERM...STEADY SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA IN A VERY
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST CORRIDOR COLLOCATED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL STATIONARY FRONT. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3
INCHES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED UNDER THIS...WITH A MAX OF 4.6 INCHES IN
CRYSTAL LAKE. SEEING A BLOSSOMING OF REFLECTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN
IL AS A SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR EVIDENT SPEED MAX MOVES ALONG THE
ELEVATED BOUNDARY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING BANDED POTENTIAL THROUGH THE 3 AM TIME
PERIOD...AND OBSERVED DVN SOUNDING AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE SOME POCKETS OF EITHER ELEVATED STEEPER LAPSE RATES OR
WEAKLY NEGATIVE EPV. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT SLIGHT
GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT TO HELP IMPROVE SNOW RATIOS SOME...WHICH
HAVE BEEN AVERAGE THUS FAR IN THE 10:1 TO 13:1 RANGE. THE THERMAL
PROFILES WHICH REMAIN NEAR THE HALF INCH PWAT OBSERVED THIS EVE AT
DVN AND ILX SUPPORT LARGE AGGREGATE FLAKE GROWTH...AND THE
PRESENT LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO HELP FOR RATES TO BUMP UP JUST A BIT UNDER
ANY HEAVIER AXES OF SNOW. HAVE TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT OF FORECAST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON BOTH SIDES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
VERY LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE A LULL AROUND DAYBREAK INTO EARLY
MORNING BETWEEN THE PRESENT TIMING OF THE MID-LEVEL FORCING AND
THE PRIMARY LOW DEVELOPMENT. SO SNOW MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE FACTORS MENTIONED IN PREV AFD. HOW FAR NORTH
AND WEST THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL SPREAD IS SOMEWHAT DISAGREED
UPON...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN IL
GO BACK UNDER THE SNOWFALL /SUCH AS MCHENRY COUNTY TOWARD
ROCKFORD/. SO HAVE EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE TIME
BEING. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT TREND TO SLOW BOTH THE MOST
APPRECIABLE SNOW TIMING ON SUNDAY AND THE ARCTIC FRONT TIMING TOO
AND THAT IS THE MAIN REASON TO HOLD OFF FOR ANY UPGRADE OF A SMALL
AREA TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. STILL VERY POTENT WINDS ARRIVE BY
EARLY EVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...AND WHILE NOT
COLLOCATED WITH THE STRONGEST SNOWFALL /OR POSSIBLY EVEN ANY
SNOWFALL BY SUN EVE/...THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CREATE
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

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Im a bit worried where I sit, Im well north of Indy but geez were cutting it close on some models. Luckily, not all of the models are as warm. Im guessing 8+ for my area.

 

Yeah, closer to Indy is the battle zone. Gonna be tight it seems. Hopefully heavy rates will make marginal profiles moot. At least 8" for you sounds good to me.

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Instantwxmaps show RA/SN line about 75 miles SE of TOL with about 8-12" of snow. 

this sounding is close to Toledo, at 00z tomorrow. This would drive me nuts if I were there. It probably would be snow, but it will turn out to be lower snow ratios since it is so close to freezing for 4000ft of atmosphere. Obviously it's very close to being rain.

 

post-1182-0-73264300-1388895896_thumb.pn

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Im a bit worried where I sit, Im well north of Indy but geez were cutting it close on some models. Luckily, not all of the models are as warm. Im guessing 8+ for my area.

 

Yeah, closer to Indy is the battle zone. Gonna be tight it seems. Hopefully heavy rates will make marginal profiles moot. At least 8" for you sounds good to me.

This feels like last years "blizzard" lots of hype for little output. I may break down and begin crying if it rains here tomorrow. We will see how it goes. Drove by the county highway barn today and they have the big V plows out. Surely even with 6" we can see two to four feet drifts in this wind.

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