snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Ugh man..how depressing..when is the next RAP model out? Had a promising SE shift on it. Well, it could work out that both over perform. Until the sfc low really start to get cranking over AR it's tough to tell. I just don't want people in our crew to see it snowing tomorrow morning and assume the main event tomorrow evening is a slam dunk to produce big snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 KC radar starting to fill in. Looks like it may try and start snowing in the city in the next half an hour. -SN breaking out right now in north york. HRRR has been showing this for a few runs now. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 1-2" accums especially north of highway 7 by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 One more round please. Just need a little closer to BUF. 50 miles more SE and I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 -SN right now in north york. YYZ reporting -SN. I'm going to go try and put some of the blood back into my slitted wrists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Takes it to 983mb near North Bay Ontario by 36hr. Thats insane.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Yup. I'm stuck in Bloomington this weekend. Was expecting it no later than 5pm. Just started. 920pm safe travels on the way back....whence the time comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 GFS Is hot as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 About 3-5" for the GTA according to the 00z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan45 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Well, it could work out that both over perform. Until the sfc low really start to get cranking over AR it's tough to tell. I just don't want people in our crew to see it snowing tomorrow morning and assume the main event tomorrow evening is a slam dunk to produce big snow. Yeah, I really think it's going to come down to now casting and radar...what a mess..are you back at home or still in Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Looks like GFS joined the nam model with the stronger solution, just a tick east tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 YYZ reporting -SN. I'm going to go try and put some of the blood back into my slitted wrists. With regards to the main system, the ensembles suites do offer some breathing room for us as well. The EC ENS mean has a track from central AR to south of columbus and then east of KBUF before bombing out near YOW. GEFS mean is a nudge north of this but still looks good. SREF also looks nice as you previously noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 2.7" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Been dry here for about an hour. Nice to have a breather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 YYZ reporting -SN. I'm going to go try and put some of the blood back into my slitted wrists. Nice to see some snow tonight. I'm going to reneg on what I said and make a true final call of 4-10cm for YYZ (put it out there on my weather twitter so what the hell ). Closest to blizzard conditions will be the Wingham, Hanover, Durham area. Could see some serious blowing and drifting snow out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 safe travels on the way back....whence the time comes Have important work to do at home too... oh well. Things really did escalate quickly!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 noticing an uptick in flake size over the last 15 minutes...otherwise, solid pouring continues yep, same here. Very nice increase in flake size. LOT radar locked and loaded for quite some time. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Been dry here for about an hour. Nice to have a breather. Stop lyin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Can anyone post earl barkers map for the 00z nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Yeah, I really think it's going to come down to now casting and radar...what a mess..are you back at home or still in Toronto? In Toronto until 6:55 Monday morning. That's when my flight's supposed to take off. Weather permitting of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 With regards to the main system, the ensembles suites do offer some breathing room for us as well. The EC ENS mean has a track from central AR to south of columbus and then east of KBUF before bombing out near YOW. GEFS mean is a nudge north of this but still looks good. SREF also looks nice as you previously noted. If it tracks over KBUF this should help keep temperatures cold enough for all frozen precip in the GTA, with any mixing confined towards the Lake. Its a sharp cutoff! Models still scrambling over a fixed track. It all barrows down towards a now-casting moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Stop lyin Haha, no flurries, no nothing. Probably end up with Cyclone's back edge returns later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 2.7" here 2.5" here with very light snow, need that nw edge to regenerate or im pretty much done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Getting nervous about temps in MIE. Sitting at 34.5, and it doesn't look like a lot of cooling is predicted before the precip begins. 0z NAM gives us a brief period of FZRN worth about 0.1" of QPF. The warm layer as modeled is 60mb with a max of 0.7C, but we're a solid 3 degrees C above where the 0z NAM says we should be at this time. If this stays all snow, then we should be good for 10", but as often as the WAA is underdone around here, I would expect some mixing. A half-dozen SREF members agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The 00z NAM (72 hr) super super gradient around Toledo. This is similar to what some 12km and 4km NAM runs have been showing today. Wow. Tons of snow for the Hoosier state and north Detroiters. It's starting to see the super lake effect snow bands on each of the Great Lakes. Edit: IWX zoom in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Nice to see some snow tonight. I'm going to reneg on what I said and make a true final call of 4-10cm for YYZ (put it out there on my weather twitter so what the hell ). Closest to blizzard conditions will be the Wingham, Hanover, Durham area. Could see some serious blowing and drifting snow out that way. Nice to see the models step back a bit but I'm not changing by 1-2" call until the sfc low has actually developed. As a caveat, that 1-2" call is for tomorrow evening. What happens overnight is a wildcard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 yep, same here. Very nice increase in flake size. LOT radar locked and loaded for quite some time. Bring it! Yea. Next batch of heavier precip is moving through the DVN CWA, northeast towards the LOT CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 1.25" here so far in Swartz Creek, MI. Hoping for much more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Latest GFS in line with the other 0z models. Sharp cutoff. A general 4ish" with more north of 401. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 yep, same here. Very nice increase in flake size. LOT radar locked and loaded for quite some time. Bring it! DVN radar loaded too (minus the last frame that shows a completely blank radar) ... looks like the LE streamers that just kept pouring in the other morning....but obviously from the other direction and obviously not LE .... you know what I mean lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Can anyone post earl barkers map for the 00z nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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