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January 4-6th Winter Storm Part 3


Whitelakeroy

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SREF mean for YYZ is about 6.6". That's up about 2" from the 9z run. Huge spread though. From basically nothing to 13".

One of the toughest forecasts for us in a long time.

Might just ride my initial 5.1" call from yesterday morning to the grave with this storm. Low chance of verifying but this system has been too much of a PITA for me haha.

Just going to watch and learn on this one and see what pans out in the end.

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I had completely written off the the fgen band making it into Toronto. However, radar upstream continues to show it oozing S and E and the NAM and RGEM at 0z have accounted for these trends. Wouldn't be surprised if there's accumulation, especially north of the 401 by morning.

The 00z RGEM precip chart is much better for our area tomorrow evening. All snow with freezing rain along the north shore of Lake Erie.

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I had completely written off the the fgen band making it into Toronto. However, radar upstream continues to show it oozing S and E and the NAM and RGEM at 0z have accounted for these trends. Wouldn't be surprised if there's accumulation, especially north of the 401 by morning.

Possibly wonder if the system itself could pan out this way? Never know..trying to be optimistic and give us some light here. Haha.

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I had completely written off the the fgen band making it into Toronto. However, radar upstream continues to show it oozing S and E and the NAM and RGEM at 0z have accounted for these trends. Wouldn't be surprised if there's accumulation, especially north of the 401 by morning.

I just saw that on the latest RGEM. Wouldn't be surprised if this affected my area of Toronto tomorrow morning.

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Thunder-snow and 2-3" hourly rates in the scenario for much of IN, MI, nw OH and sw ON. This may extend into parts of IL ... a wild ride ahead as this storm may not yet be fully captured on models.

 

Track seems to be nailed down to about s IN to nw OH to just west of Toronto.

 

Lake effect merges with tail end of blizzard for IN, MI and ON. Some predicted amounts:

 

ORD 8 more

 

IN 13-25 inches, heaviest around SBN

 

MI 15-30 inches, heaviest around GRR, massive lake effect

 

nw OH 6-12 inches

 

ON about 5 inches in Toronto, trending to 20-30 in Lake Huron and s Ggn Bay, also south Niagara snow belts (wNY 15-30 in mostly LE)

 

The real story for locations east of the track will be flash freeze and occasional SW+ left over from lake effect bands, for Toronto would expect 2-4 inches before brief rain or ice pellet stage Sunday evening then more snow from post-frontal bands.

 

Lake effect will be prodigious given the winds and temperature contrasts.

 

And, this could even get more intense than RGEM or NAM are now showing, as the jet stream is roaring out of the south with these almost unprecedented low thicknesses nearby.

 

LAF could easily see 15" the way this is shaping up. Enjoy (almost nobody else will, talk about social outcasts). ;)

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Possibly wonder if the system itself could pan out this way? Never know..trying to be optimistic and give us some light here. Haha.

 

Hoosier mentioned earlier that there's not necessarily a cause and effect relationship between the arctic boundary and the southern stream storm. And I agree. If the main storm is explosive enough, the low level WAA that it generates on its eastern flank would easily push the boundary back north as a warm front, even if it made it down to CLE.

 

So we may do better with the f-gen band but still get screwed with the main storm.

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Hoosier mentioned earlier that there's not necessarily a cause and effect relationship between the arctic boundary and the southern stream storm. And I agree. If the main storm is explosive enough, the low level WAA that it generates on its eastern flank would easily push the boundary back north as a warm front, even if it made it down to CLE.

 

So we may do better with the f-gen band but still get screwed with the main storm.

Ugh man..how depressing..when is the next RAP model out? Had a promising SE shift on it.

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