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January 4-6th Winter Storm Part 3


Whitelakeroy

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Indianapolis Power and Light Co. is reporting 24,000 people without power.

I am worried to hear that. Of course with the wind picking up and the wet heavy initial snow this could happen.  Yet I remember seeing NWS hazard potential that power outages were not to be a major expectation with this system.

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Impressive, Fergus should do well. Temps have been hovering around 27-28F.

2cm down here.

 

Same 1.5cm here. Plus the 2.5cm from last night brings my total to 4cm and its steadily falling. Temperature holds steady at -0.9C. 

 

EC forecasting -25C tom night at YYZ with a windchill of -36. :o 

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Same 1.5cm here. Plus the 2.5cm from last night brings my total to 4cm and its steadily falling. Temperature holds steady at -0.9C. 

 

EC forecasting -25C tom night at YYZ with a windchill of -36. :o

 

Wow, the EC forecast is incredible. Wonder why KW is in a freezing rain warning if they're forecasting 25cm of snow and 60-70kmh wind gusts through tomorrow. I think heavy snow is more of an issue than a couple hours of rain/snow mix. Winter storm warning would be more appropriate? 

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Really wondering why there isn't a blizzard warning. Nearly meeting criteria here - winds aren't quite 35 mph - and keeping it up for 3 hours seems doable).

 

IND AFD

 

WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH

GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE THANKS TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

THIS SHOULD CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS

AREAS WHERE SNOW IS NOT AS WET AS IT IS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

 

THE BLOWING SNOW MAY CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY

NORTHWEST/ THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL LAST LONG

ENOUGH OR GET DOWN TO 1/4SM LONG ENOUGH FOR A BLIZZARD WARNING.

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Wow, the EC forecast is incredible. Wonder why KW is in a freezing rain warning if they're forecasting 25cm of snow and 60-70kmh wind gusts through tomorrow. I think heavy snow is more of an issue than a couple hours of rain/snow mix. Winter storm warning would be more appropriate? 

They will go Snow Squall Warning for tomorrow...snow squall potential is the reason they have 25cm forecast. 10cm maybe 15cm seems probably for your area with the synoptic snow. Still though, freezing rain warning seems odd...would think they would go winter storm warning for all areas to account for freezing rain + snow potential. 

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IND AFD

 

WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH

GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE THANKS TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

THIS SHOULD CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS

AREAS WHERE SNOW IS NOT AS WET AS IT IS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

 

THE BLOWING SNOW MAY CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY

NORTHWEST/ THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL LAST LONG

ENOUGH OR GET DOWN TO 1/4SM LONG ENOUGH FOR A BLIZZARD WARNING.

Close but no cigar on the blizzard warning this time..

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Wow, the EC forecast is incredible. Wonder why KW is in a freezing rain warning if they're forecasting 25cm of snow and 60-70kmh wind gusts through tomorrow. I think heavy snow is more of an issue than a couple hours of rain/snow mix. Winter storm warning would be more appropriate? 

 

Well maybe they're trying to play it safe since we just went through the worst ice storm in decades. They probably don't want to take the risk and issued the freezing rain warning as a safety reason to keep the public safe. 

 

WSW would have been more appropriate though. 

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For those that were wondering about the COD website issues...

 

College of Dupage Meteorology - NEXLAB
We are currently experiencing problems with our product generation site-wide due mainly to power outages and inclement weather on campus. Please bare with us as we attempt to correct these issues. We apologize for the inconvenience.
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Would agree that southwestern ON needs a blizzard warning, events during the very brief warm sector passage will be vastly overshadoweed by massive lake effect squall bands and dangerous wind chills arriving about 10 seconds after frontal passage.

 

Looks to me as though the warm sector is going to have trouble consolidating and will largely shoot over top of the surface cold air, probably leading to thunder-sleet in the GTA rather than freezing rain. Temp could whip up to 5-6 C for one hour then plunge, if the warm air does manage to mix down. Anyway, it won't be much of a factor, just adding to the road slickness from the thaw-freeze cycle.

 

Expect widespread TS+ IN/MI this evening ... server overload alert. :)

 

BUF poster, welcome to the madhouse, south towns will be oblaterated. (been there, done that)

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mcd0006.gif

 

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0249 PM CST SUN JAN 05 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL IL...CNTRL AND NRN IND...NWRN   OH AND SRN LOWER MI   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 052049Z - 060045Z   SUMMARY...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH   SCNTRL AND ECNTRL IL...CNTRL AND NRN IND...NWRN OH AND SRN LOWER MI   INTO EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 1 INCH PER   HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.   DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSIST   FROM SRN AND ECNTRL IL NEWD THROUGH NRN IND AND SRN LOWER MI. IT   APPEARS THAT SOME DRYER AIR HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO CNTRL IND   BETWEEN THE WARM ADVECTION RAIN BAND AND THE ZONE OF HEAVIER SNOW TO   THE WEST WHICH IS RESULTING IN A TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL   RATES ACROSS CNTRL IND. HOWEVER...AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WITHIN EXIT   REGION OF AN UPPER JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL   SUPPORT DEEPENING OF SFC LOW AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD THROUGH IND AND OH   ALONG A QUASI-STATIONRY FRONT WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY   SHOW THE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DEEP   ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN AUGMENTED ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND WEST   OF THE MIGRATORY LOW AND CONTINUE TO PROMOTE NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
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Well maybe they're trying to play it safe since we just went through the worst ice storm in decades. They probably don't want to take the risk and issued the freezing rain warning as a safety reason to keep the public safe. 

 

WSW would have been more appropriate though. 

 

Personally, I don't think blanket Freezing Rain Warnings was the right call. In light of the recent ice storm, this could get people a little over-worried about the potential. Even saw a news headlines (the Sun, of course) that said "OH NO NOT AGAIN: Environment Canada issued a freezing rain warning for Toronto for overnight Sunday and early Monday morning."

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IND AFD

 

WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH

GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE THANKS TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

THIS SHOULD CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS

AREAS WHERE SNOW IS NOT AS WET AS IT IS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

 

THE BLOWING SNOW MAY CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY

NORTHWEST/ THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL LAST LONG

ENOUGH OR GET DOWN TO 1/4SM LONG ENOUGH FOR A BLIZZARD WARNING.

Yeah, guess so. Visibility back up to 1/2 mi or so here.

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