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January 4-6th Winter Storm Part 3


Whitelakeroy

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Whats your dewpoint? I'm currently sitting at -1.5C.

Not too sure unfortunately, that reading is off my old school analog thermometer... Need to invest in a weather station. YYZ dewpoint is -2.1C so hopefully we can wet bulb down with the precipitation that's moving in. Hate having to rely on evap cooling though.

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Not too sure unfortunately, that reading is off my old school analog thermometer... Need to invest in a weather station. YYZ dewpoint is -2.1C so hopefully we can wet bulb down with the precipitation that's moving in. Hate having to rely on evap cooling though.

 

At home thermometer is good enough. No reason to invest in other instruments, as you can get estimations from nearby stations. Very temperature dependent. Most models do keep the 850mb temperatures below freezing the entire duration. One thing we have to avoid is getting a thin layer of warmth at 925mb. Our snow pack may help keep SFC temperatures cool enough to stay around the freezing mark, but if theirs a thin layer of warmth in the upper atmosphere thats not good, lol.  

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LOT...

 

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1134 AM CST SUN JAN 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
1130 AM CST

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL FORECASTS BASED ON THE
PLETHORA OF REPORTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BETTER
REFINING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES MADE TO HEADLINES BESIDES CANCELLING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR FAR NORTHERN IL.

PICTURESQUE WATER VAPOR IMAGE LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE OZARKS AND A COUPLED UPPER JET
IN ADVANCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND OWING TO SUBSTANTIAL LIFT. THIS
HAS ENABLED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO EXPAND QUICKLY NORTHEAST
FROM SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL IL INTO THE CWA...MAINLY EAST OF
I-55...WITH MOST OBSERVATIONS AT ONE HALF MILE VISIBILITY AND
OCCASIONALLY A FEW LOWER. THIS IS ALONG THE 850MB
TROUGH/DEVELOPING LOW AND THE FAVORED -5C ISOTHERM IN THIS
DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AREA OF A SYSTEM.

AS THIS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST...IT WILL TAKE THE BEST
MOISTURE WITH IT AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SNOW RATIOS TO BETTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. REPORTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN OF
A VERY WET SNOW THUS FAR. IN ADDITION...BANDED POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WILL IMPROVE AS WELL AND HAVE SEEN
TRENDS OF THAT ON RADAR WITH STRIPS OF GREATER THAN 25DBZ
OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPING. EVEN HAVE SEEN TEMPORARY ONE QUARTER MILE
VISIBILITY ALL THE WAY UP AT ORD AS OF 1125 AM WITH SUCH A
TEMPORARY BAND. JUST GIVEN THE DEFORMATION PLACEMENT AND SHORT
TERM FORECASTS OF FRONTOGENESIS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SEE NO
REASON THESE WILL NOT CONTINUE TO UNDULATE AROUND AND BE MOST
PERSISTENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA.

SO BELIEVE THAT ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES SHOULD BE SEEN BETWEEN I-88
AND I-55...INCLUDING CHICAGO...FOR STORM TOTALS OF 5-9 INCHES /7-9
IN CHICAGO/. WIDESPREAD 3-6 ADDITIONAL INCHES SHOULD BE SEEN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOR GRAND
TOTALS OF 6-12 BASED ON WHAT HAS FALLEN. THE HIGHEST TOTAL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE IN NORTHERN LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES WHICH HAD RECEIVED
4-6 LAST NIGHT...AND WHERE LAKE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO FEED SOME
ENHANCEMENT INTO THE AREA.

LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES ALSO IS MOST VULNERABLE TO THE
FRICTIONLESS WIND FETCH DOWN THE LAKE FOR GUSTS OF 40 MPH WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. ALSO LAKE AND
PORTER COUNTIES ARE ALREADY RECEIVING SOME OF THE LIGHTER/LOWER
WATER CONTENT SNOW AS IT IS SO THEY WILL HAVE A HIGHER BASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY IF A BLIZZARD WARNING IS NEEDED
THERE AS A COUPLE MAJOR INTERSTATES ARE NOT FAR FROM THE LAKE
SHORE. ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD KANKAKEE
AND PONTIAC AS THE SYNOPTIC ISALLOBARIC COUPLET DEVELOPS AND
PASSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE IN TANDEM WITH THE GREATEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION. AT THIS TIME THE THOUGHT IS MUCH OF THIS EARLY
SNOW HAS BEEN TOO WET OF A CONTENT TO BE WIDESPREAD BLOWING...AND
ONCE IT DOES THE ACTUAL FALLING SNOW WILL HAVE CEASED. SO THAT MAY
RESULT IN MORE GROUND BLIZZARD TYPE CONDITIONS. EITHER
WAY...TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE TREACHEROUS IN THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AREA.

NO CHANGES MADE TO TIMING OF COLD AIR ARRIVAL AND MIN WIND CHILLS
AT THIS TIME.
 

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