YHM Supercell Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Probably a wet and heavy 5cm for parts of the Golden Horseshoe with this one. Will probably be sitting in some plain old rain at one point or another. RGEM/NAM hint at a little bit of freezing rain potential as well. Huron folks lucking out with this one, good synoptic snows then cranking LES potential afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Looks like a nice mini band over Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 This happens after 4-6" accumulates. The rain looks brief and light thank goodness lol. 4-6" seems a bit on the generous side in my opinion. But as you said, couple shifts either way can re-determine everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 joe doesn't open a thread...... Untitled.gif You scared the #$% out of me! I jumped up and ran to the window. My location reporting heavy rain as well. ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 No I saw it on another site. SREF mean for YYZ is about 6.6". That's up about 2" from the 9z run. Huge spread though. From basically nothing to 13". One of the toughest forecasts for us in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 Looks like a nice mini band over Detroit I hope the southern edge of the band gets down to Josh's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 joe doesn't open a thread...... lol That's the only site in the area that constantly does that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 SREF mean for YYZ is about 6.6". That's up about 2" from the 9z run. Huge spread though. From basically nothing to 13". One of the toughest forecasts for us in a long time. 18z GFS still stuck on >6" totals for the GTA. EC probably pulling their hair out with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Believe it or not gents, have faith in the Canadians. I made it back to Chicago! Bag less though...very cool flying in. Runway covered in snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 18z GFS still stuck on >6" totals for the GTA. EC probably pulling their hair out with this one. Smells like explosive cyclogenesis and an RGEMesque outcome to me. But I'm a natural pessimist so maybe that's not an objective assessment. I'm thinking 1-2" of slush is the likely outcome. Don't have to go too far to the NW to see totals increase precipitously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 lol That's the only site in the area that constantly does that. Ironically, was out front with the wife and she said "It's like it's pouring right now....but snow instead of rain" You scared the #$% out of me! I jumped up and ran to the window. My location reporting heavy rain as well. ha! lol ... def looking forward to some growth in dendrites here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Another plus with this storm is it looks like we'll get some rare high quality day time rippage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Smells like explosive cyclogenesis and an RGEMesque outcome to me. But I'm a natural pessimist so maybe that's not an objective assessment. I'm thinking 1-2" of slush is the likely outcome. Don't have to go too far to the NW to see totals increase precipitously. No doubt, RGEM pretty well nailed the ice storm...why give up on it now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Smells like explosive cyclogenesis and an RGEMesque outcome to me. But I'm a natural pessimist so maybe that's not an objective assessment. I'm thinking 1-2" of slush is the likely outcome. Don't have to go too far to the NW to see totals increase precipitously. Still going with 2-4" for my part of Toronto. Really hope the trend will be our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Northern edge clawing back in il Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 00z RGEM looks like it might tick south of 12z...maybe. Edit: could just be a timing issue...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 No I saw it on another site. Um, is it a wxbell map? Because I just saw the instantwxmap snowfall plot from the NAM and it shows virtually nothing. edit: well, not virtually nothing. But less than 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 people eagerly anticipating the snow in places like Bloomington, IL and Plymouth, IN must be screaming at their screens. Precip knocking on the door all night but won't move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 SREF plumes for KDEC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 40mm, a hair over 1.50" liquid, talk about coming in hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Like I said, 'grats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 joe doesn't open a thread...... Untitled.gif i saw this by me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 00z RGEM is about 4 mb deeper than the NAM at 24 hours...00z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 rgem Amazing. IWX update REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE ALTHOUGH NEWD ARRIVAL/DVLPMNT OF HEAVY SNOW MAY BE QUICKER PER RAPID UPSTREAM DVLPMNT CURRENTLY ONGOING INVOF SW MO. NEWEST 00Z RUC/HRRR ALONG W/CONCURRENT NAM TREND INDICATING A BROAD AREA OF HEAVY SNOW DVLPG NW OF SFC CYCLONE SUN AM IN RESPONSE TO RAPID SFC CYCLONE INTENSIFICATION AND TREMENDOUS LL MSTR FLUX. SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOWFALL RATES OF 1.5-2.0+ INCH/HR LOOK ASSURED TWD MID MORNING SW TO EARLY AFTN NE BEFORE ABATING LT AFTN/EARLY EVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan45 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 What an effin' headache man..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 00z RGEM is about 4 mb deeper than the NAM at 24 hours...00z Monday Would love to see the 3hr plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Judging by the B/W charts, 00Z RGEM definitely wetter for SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 00z RGEM is about 4 mb deeper than the NAM at 24 hours...00z Monday Takes it to 983mb near North Bay Ontario by 36hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 00z RGEM looks a tad south and perhaps colder (but still west by the IN/OH border) at 24 hours (00z Monday) compared to today's 12z run at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.