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January 4-6th Winter Storm Part 3


Whitelakeroy

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Fair enough. Sfc low seems on track to slip towards the KY/OH border or near Cincinnati based on noaa meso analysis.

And beyond that, models diverge in a 50 mile radius as to where exactly the Low will track. If it tracks a bit further south, say between Hamilton and KBUF, we may get more snow and less rain. It depends how cold the temperatures are.

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And beyond that, models diverge in a 50 mile radius as to where exactly the Low will track. If it tracks a bit further south, say between Hamilton and KBUF, we may get more snow and less rain. It depends how cold the temperatures are.

 

Only good thing I can say right now is that it doesn't look like the sfc low is tracking any further NW than the 12z suite indicates.

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I think you're going to see the best chance of that in MI somewhere in a line from Jackson to Brighton stretching northeast and then east across the northern suburbs. They got frontal snows last night plus they're in a very favorable corridor for rippage as the day goes on plus no real p-type or cement concerns.

 

Agreed, MI seems like the best spot for that but I feel like those rates in Indiana have to be nearing 2 inches per hour and some insane training going on right now.

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6.0" at 8:00

 

 

7.3" at 11:00 (multiple measurements averaged, but a lot of blowing/drifting so the measurement filed under FWIW)

 

solid SN with SN+ at times....

 

fairly widespread blowing over the last 30 minutes or so....drifts starting to build between the homes here...deepest one that I saw on my little walk around was about a foot and a half

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Only good thing I can say right now is that it doesn't look like the sfc low is tracking any further NW than the 12z suite indicates.

Once the Low passes the KY/OH border, it should be monitored as any slight shift either way could make a big difference in our situation lol. 3 days ago, I would have never pictured rain to be in the forecast.

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Oops, I should have phrased it better. I meant 1" aside from whats fallen already. I'm frustrated of getting screwed over all the time. But hey? What can you do when you live in a snowless sh!t pot, lol. And TorontoBlizzard, I actually mean "I will retire", lol.

Good luck to everybody else. Stay safe :)

Lol dude you'll be back but maybe time to take a break from the models for a few days eh? We've had a solid snowpack for about 3 weeks so hard to call it a 'snowless sh!t pot'!

Sticking with my 4-10cm call, going to need to measure immediately when the rain changeover starts to get an accurate measurement. Hopefully we will at least see some solid +SN out of this, that would make it enjoyable enough for me. Flash freeze will be fun to track Monday.

Enjoy the storm for what it is :)

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Agreed, MI seems like the best spot for that but I feel like those rates in Indiana have to be nearing 2 inches per hour and some insane training going on right now.

 

Yeah, didn't mean to exclude IN. Just not following the situation as closely there. JXN has several total SREF plumes in the 18" range. Based upon how readily the radar's filled in in Michigan with SN (more readily than NAM or GFS showed last night occurring by this hour), doesn't seem too ridiculous really.

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Sfc low has also taken a nice jog east over the last 2 hours. Was modelled further north by the RAP.

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2014-01-05 at 12.13.44 PM.png

Rap initialization

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2014-01-05 at 12.14.25 PM.png

 

Don't see a huge difference there. If anything, the sfc low is a bit slower and deeper than what the RAP indicated, which could be detrimental to us. And best 3 hr pres falls still take it along the OH river, which is in line with 12z suite.

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Dry Slot around Toledo working into Detroit

Temps and dryslotting are worrisome. 30.4°F IMBY, 31°F DTW, 32°F DET, 33° YIP

Don't be. It's snowing moderately in BG right now with good flake size. If it starts raining here maybe start getting worried in SEMI but I wouldn't be concerned if I were you. . 

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I had Mottser - B-Rent - afterimage in my jackpot area. But yeah, IND is doing a hell of a job fighting off the very close warm air aloft. Tacked on another inch last hour, and currently heavy snow.

 

METAR KIND 051654Z 06004KT 1/4SM R05L/2400V3000FT +SN FZFG OVC004 M01/M01 A2976 RMK AO2 SLP083 SNINCR 1/5 P0014 T10061006

In about 20 minutes, you couldn't tell I had just been through and shoveled the sidewalks. 

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