Snowstorms Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Fair enough. Sfc low seems on track to slip towards the KY/OH border or near Cincinnati based on noaa meso analysis. And beyond that, models diverge in a 50 mile radius as to where exactly the Low will track. If it tracks a bit further south, say between Hamilton and KBUF, we may get more snow and less rain. It depends how cold the temperatures are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 And beyond that, models diverge in a 50 mile radius as to where exactly the Low will track. If it tracks a bit further south, say between Hamilton and KBUF, we may get more snow and less rain. It depends how cold the temperatures are. Only good thing I can say right now is that it doesn't look like the sfc low is tracking any further NW than the 12z suite indicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I think you're going to see the best chance of that in MI somewhere in a line from Jackson to Brighton stretching northeast and then east across the northern suburbs. They got frontal snows last night plus they're in a very favorable corridor for rippage as the day goes on plus no real p-type or cement concerns. Agreed, MI seems like the best spot for that but I feel like those rates in Indiana have to be nearing 2 inches per hour and some insane training going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 STL going to flirt with the dry slow but should see the pivot just in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 And beyond that, models diverge in a 50 mile radius as to where exactly the Low will track. If it tracks a bit further south, say between Hamilton and KBUF, we may get more snow and less rain. It depends how cold the temperatures are. do you have a link to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 6.0" at 8:00 7.3" at 11:00 (multiple measurements averaged, but a lot of blowing/drifting so the measurement filed under FWIW) solid SN with SN+ at times.... fairly widespread blowing over the last 30 minutes or so....drifts starting to build between the homes here...deepest one that I saw on my little walk around was about a foot and a half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 COD back up but loops are jacked for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvansvilleAce Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Is the low going slightly south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Is the low going slightly south? Don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 do you have a link to that? HRRR and RAP link below. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/ And here's RUC. http://ruc.noaa.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Up to 5.4" here. Over the past hour picked up just north of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Only good thing I can say right now is that it doesn't look like the sfc low is tracking any further NW than the 12z suite indicates. Sfc low has also taken a nice jog east over the last 2 hours. Was modelled further north by the RAP. Rap initialization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Taken about 10 minutes ago. The picture doesn't do it justice but again just pouring. I would estimate about 4 inches in Noblesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Only good thing I can say right now is that it doesn't look like the sfc low is tracking any further NW than the 12z suite indicates. Once the Low passes the KY/OH border, it should be monitored as any slight shift either way could make a big difference in our situation lol. 3 days ago, I would have never pictured rain to be in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 HRRR and RAP link below. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/ And here's RUC. http://ruc.noaa.gov thank u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Wet snow here weighing on the big Pines to my west. Hopefully you can see it in this photo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Oops, I should have phrased it better. I meant 1" aside from whats fallen already. I'm frustrated of getting screwed over all the time. But hey? What can you do when you live in a snowless sh!t pot, lol. And TorontoBlizzard, I actually mean "I will retire", lol. Good luck to everybody else. Stay safe Lol dude you'll be back but maybe time to take a break from the models for a few days eh? We've had a solid snowpack for about 3 weeks so hard to call it a 'snowless sh!t pot'! Sticking with my 4-10cm call, going to need to measure immediately when the rain changeover starts to get an accurate measurement. Hopefully we will at least see some solid +SN out of this, that would make it enjoyable enough for me. Flash freeze will be fun to track Monday. Enjoy the storm for what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Down to 30° in LAF I see now. 12° and -SN here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Agreed, MI seems like the best spot for that but I feel like those rates in Indiana have to be nearing 2 inches per hour and some insane training going on right now. Yeah, didn't mean to exclude IN. Just not following the situation as closely there. JXN has several total SREF plumes in the 18" range. Based upon how readily the radar's filled in in Michigan with SN (more readily than NAM or GFS showed last night occurring by this hour), doesn't seem too ridiculous really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Sfc low has also taken a nice jog east over the last 2 hours. Was modelled further north by the RAP. Screen Shot 2014-01-05 at 12.13.44 PM.png Rap initialization Screen Shot 2014-01-05 at 12.14.25 PM.png Don't see a huge difference there. If anything, the sfc low is a bit slower and deeper than what the RAP indicated, which could be detrimental to us. And best 3 hr pres falls still take it along the OH river, which is in line with 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Indy really riding the line there. Still 1/4 mile in heavy snow though. Rain is only miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Up to 3.8" at IND NWS, 1.2" in the last hour there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Per the 3-hr pressure fall map, it looks like the low will track over south-central IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Dry Slot around Toledo working into Detroit Temps and dryslotting are worrisome. 30.4°F IMBY, 31°F DTW, 32°F DET, 33° YIP Don't be. It's snowing moderately in BG right now with good flake size. If it starts raining here maybe start getting worried in SEMI but I wouldn't be concerned if I were you. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Noblesville, IN Pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Up to 3.8" at IND NWS, 1.2" in the last hour there.. How much for Mottster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I had Mottser - B-Rent - afterimage in my jackpot area. But yeah, IND is doing a hell of a job fighting off the very close warm air aloft. Tacked on another inch last hour, and currently heavy snow. METAR KIND 051654Z 06004KT 1/4SM R05L/2400V3000FT +SN FZFG OVC004 M01/M01 A2976 RMK AO2 SLP083 SNINCR 1/5 P0014 T10061006 In about 20 minutes, you couldn't tell I had just been through and shoveled the sidewalks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 All the way up to 47 degrees here with the sun even peeking through the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 In about 20 minutes, you couldn't tell I had just been through and shoveled the sidewalks. Awesome. Keep it pouring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 All the way up to 47 degrees here with the sun even peeking through the clouds. 36 and pouring rain here. Hard to believe we will be below 0 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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